Winn-Dixie 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 2nd, 3:18PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The NASCAR Xfinity Series will kick start an unbelievable slate of sporting events Saturday with the running of the Winn-Dixie 300 at Talladega Superspeedway. Sports fans will get a little bit of everything on Saturday from racing, to the Kentucky Derby, and the mega fight in boxing between Pacquiao and Mayweather that is shaping up to be one of the biggest sporting events of the decade. Still, the Winn-Dixie 300 promises to be possibly the most exciting and unpredictable event on Saturday’s card. We take this time to get ready for a crazy afternoon at Talladega Superspeedway with our Winn-Dixie 300 race picks!
When Talladega shows up on the race schedule, there are a few things that should be expected. Fast speeds, big wrecks, and the unexpected are always a part of restrictor plate racing. In the Xfinity Series that notion has held true at Talladega Superspeedway like no other track on circuit. In fact, Talladega has featured 9 straight different race winners in the Xfinity Series and Saturday’s 300 mile race has a number of drivers that could threaten to push that streak to 10 straight different race winners. Though these races can be extremely unpredictable, odds makers usually post better odds than you see at most other tracks which makes it worth the risk. Still, bettors should approach restrictor plate racing with a low risk/big reward type of betting strategy because everything and anything is bound to go down when the green flag waves at Talladega at 3:18PM (EST) Saturday.
When it comes to handicapping these races, you have to pick drivers that have a knack for keeping themselves up front. If a driver can stay up front, then chances are they can stay out of the wrecks and position their selves for a chance at the victory in the closing laps. A few veteran drivers that should fit that category include guys like Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, and Regan Smith. Logano and Kahne may be obvious picks as they are the two big names from the Sprint Cup Series that are participating on Saturday. The #22 car has been the best car in the series on a weekly basis and Logano is the overall favorite for the Winn-Dixie 300. Considering the strength of the #22 and Logano’s resume at Talladega, it is not surprising. In 5 starts, Logano has 1 victory, 3 runner-up finishes, and a 3rd place finish. It does not get much better than that on restrictor plate tracks.
Kasey Kahne will be making his first Xfinity Series start in 2015 in the #88 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports. Kahne may be an appealing pick for some bettors considering he is getting solid odds and he scored a win at Daytona for JR Motorsports last year. However, Kahne’s resume at Talladega in the Xfinity Series is rather shocking and not in a good way. In 6 career starts, Kahne has just 1 top 20 finish at Talladega (3rd in 2013). Instead, if you are going to go the experience route, I would suggest JR Motorsports teammate Regan Smith. Smith has been excellent at the restrictor plate tracks in recent years. In fact in his last 5 starts at Daytona and Talladega, Smith has two wins, a runner-up finish, and a 3rd place finish. Behind Logano, he may be the best bet in the field and Smith’s odds have been pretty fair throughout the week.
Outside of the experience factor, there are several young guys looking to keep that streak of 9 straight different race winners at Talladega alive. Chase Elliot and Erik Jones would be the headlines on the list. However there are several names like Chris Buescher, Ty Dillon, and Darrell Wallace Jr that deserve some attention as well. For Jones, his unbelievable 2015 campaign in NASCAR continued today when he flexed his muscles again by topping the charts in the only practice session for Saturday’s Winn-Dixie 300. Sure practice speeds mean absolutely nothing at Talladega, but Jones has impressed all year in the Xfinity Series with 3 poles and 1 win already through just a handful of starts. The #20 car looked fast again off the truck and it would not be surprising to see the youngster in the mix during the late stages of Saturday’s race.
Obviously anyone can win Saturday’s Winn-Dixie 300 to a certain extent especially if other circumstances come into play like big wrecks or fuel situations. Normally you do not think about fuel at a place like Talladega, but just ask Tom Hessert who ran out of fuel on the last lap of Friday’s ARCA race while leading. Another thing that we have seen over the last few years is that when big wrecks wipe out a number of cars, then that has opened the door for some lesser known drivers to sneak up towards the front and challenge for a victory. Will that happen again on Saturday? I guess only time will tell..
Winn-Dixie 300 Race Picks
Regan Smith +850 (1 unit): two wins in last 5 restrictor plate races, 2013 Talladega winner, 4th in practice, starting 11th
Chris Buescher +1400 (.5 unit): solid restrictor plate racer, 2nd in 2014 at Talladega, solid dark horse starting 12th
Darrell Wallace Jr +2500 (.5 unit): 2nd in final practice, starting 8th, aggressive driving style which could make things interesting if he is around the front towards the end
Winning Parlay
Joey Logano +345 wins Winn-Dixie 300
Chris Buescher -130 over Aric Almirola
To win:+685
