What We Learned: Vegas Betting Recap
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first 1.5 mile speedway is in the books following Sunday’s Pennzoil 400. Joey Logano’s gamble to stay out on old tires proved to be the winning strategy during an afternoon that featured numerous drivers that appeared poised for victory. With the first traditional oval in our rear view, I thought it would be important to discuss a few things we learned from the weekend that will be helpful in the weeks ahead for all series. The parity among all of NASCAR’s touring series is stronger than ever and that is going to keep things extremely interesting in the weeks ahead. So let’s dive into a few things we learned from a weekend in Las Vegas!
From a betting standpoint, we did not have much luck this weekend. I knew things were going to be tough because the playing field is pretty equal in terms of competition at the moment and we don’t really have enough data to fill overly confident about picks this early in the year. Even with that being said, our picks appeared to be poised for wins in both the Cup Series (Ryan Blaney) and Xfinity (Austin Cindric) before late race cautions ruined everything. It’s also worth noting that I thought both H2H picks in the Xfinity Series race were on the right side of the coin. Unfortunately both Ross Chastain and Myatt Snider bombed their final pit stops which hurt in the realm of H2H bets. Still we are winless 4 races into the season and only down $-160 which is not bad at all. My main priority in tough races is to minimize losses. We will have better weekends that favor handicapping and we simply have to survive the tough weekends to enjoy the winning streaks which hopefully begin next week at Auto Club Speedway
Cup Series Notes:
Chevrolet Power: One of the main things that we learned from Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 is that the Chevrolet teams have indeed gained ground. I stated on several occasions that the new noses on the 2020 Chevrolet Camaro should improve performance and the Chevy teams get a solid B+ grading following their performance at Vegas. Chase Elliott had the fastest car for the majority of the afternoon before a cut tire ruined his day. Jimmie Johnson scored a strong top 5 finish. Johnson recorded justs two Top 5 finishes in all of 2019 on traditional ovals. Alex Bowman had a chance to win in the closing laps before a late caution jumbled up pit strategy. Meanwhile some of the inferior Chevrolet teams shined with top 5 finishes from the likes of Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse combined with a top 10 finish from Ty Dillon. Obviously some of those finishes were contributed by the late caution but give those guys credit for being in the position to capitalize on late race strategy. Overall, it was just a great performance by the Chevrolet teams and most people believe they should only get better as the year progresses which means we could see a lot of new names run at the front of the field on any given weekend.
Parity: As stated above, we have seen several surprising finishes through the first two weeks of the season. Chris Buescher, David Ragan, Austin Dillon, and Ricky Stenhouse have already scored top 5 finishes which is pretty impressive considering the struggles from the teams of those drivers in recent years. To put things into perspective, Austin Dillon was listed at 125-1 to win Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Ricky Stenhouse, who had a great run, was listed at 150-1 before the green flag (Shout out to @Yisman for always posting the closing odds in our forums). Sure, not all weeks are going to provoke surprise performances but I don’t think this trend is necessarily going to die either. This rules package is designed to bring parity and the Chevrolet teams are taking a step forward to create a more level playing field. What does all this mean? I simply believe it means we need to keep an open mind each week when making bets. If you hit one 50-1 or 100-1 winner, it can truly change an entire season. There may be some opportunities for that to happen this season and not just at the superspeedways.
Xfinity Series Notes:
The Big 4? Last year, the Big 3 dominated the Xfinity Series like no other trio in history combining for 21 victories on the season. Since the end of 2019, the Big 3 in terms of Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Cole Custer have all departed to the Cup Series. If you read my Xfinity Series preview for the Boyd Gaming 300, I made a few mentions at the drivers that should benefit from their departure and possibly become weekly favorites. Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain were the obvious choices based on pure talent. However, Justin Allgaier and Austin Cindric were names that I specifically mentioned as well.
During Sunday’s rain-delayed Boyd Gaming 300, it appeared those 4 cars were the class of the field in terms of talent. I still believe Austin Cindric should have won that race because he looked to have the better car. The #22 team simply lost the track position and could not get around Chase Briscoe in the closing laps. I would also say that Allgaier has to do a better job of finishing races because he has not created a habit of fading in the waning laps. Still the point here is that nobody really knew which drivers would step up in the Xfinity Series this season and while I hate to over react to one race; it was pretty clear who the class A talents were this weekend. I would also point out that Harrison Burton will likely make some noise at some point this year. The #20 team is extremely strong and I believe in Burton’s talent. If I had to guess, Burton’s success will probably come at the shorter tracks like Iowa, Gateway, or Richmond.
Truck Series Notes:
The Bounty: If you missed all of the twitter conversations over the weekend, Kevin Harvick placed a $50,000 bounty on any Cup Series driver that could beat Kyle Busch in a truck race. Shortly afterward, Gander RV & Outdoors CEO Marcus Lemonis added another $50,000 to the bounty to bring the total to a whopping $100,000. So for any Cup Series drivers that are willing, there is an extra $100,000 incentive to go knock Kyle Busch off his throne. Yes, Busch is the best ever in the series and he is truly incredible in the Trucks Series races. In fact, he won all 5 of his starts in the Truck Series in 2019. However, I would love to see a few other Cup Series guys come down to compete against Rowdy. I love watching the Truck Series and the young talent. However, I am not one of those guys that want to ban guys from the Xfinity or Cup Series from competing. So hopefully, we can see more big names in the weeks ahead. If someone is going to try to claim the bounty, they better get a ride together quickly. Rowdy is scheduled to make his final 4 starts in the Truck Series over the next 3 races at Atlanta, Homestead, and Texas. Busch will make his final start of the year on May 30th at Kansas Speedway.
