ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday April 24th, 7:46PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s edition of Friday night lights returns tonight when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the ToyotaCare 250 at Richmond International Raceway. A full field of talent is set to battle for 250 laps in what promises to be an exciting race or at least more exciting than last week’s Xfinity Series race at Bristol which was dominated by Joey Logano who lead all 200 laps. Last fall Kyle Busch dominated the Xfinity Series race at Richmond in similar fashion by leading every lap. However, there are several drivers that look poised to contend for tonight’s victory which should produce an exciting race and hopefully a few lead changes. Take a look at our ToyotaCare 250 race picks!
The big 3 from the Cup Series are the big favorites entering tonight’s race between Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin. Both Harvick and Logano already have 2 wins each this year in the Xfinity Series while Hamlin has under performed to some extent. However, Hamlin moved to the #20 car this week and Richmond just so happens to be one of his best tracks. The hometown boy has two wins and five top 5 finishes in 13 career Xfinity starts at Richmond. Hamlin appears to have a lot of momentum going into tonight’s event. He put the #20 car on the pole, posted the fastest lap in practice earlier today, and looked really good in race trim in practice as well. Of course practice come in the early hours of the day and track conditions will be different once the green flag drops tonight. However, Hamlin still looks like a solid threat to take tonight’s checkered flag.
From a betting standpoint, you have to seriously look at both Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano any time they are entered in an Xfinity Series race. Harvick leads all drivers with 7 career Xfinity Series wins at Richmond International Raceway. The #88 Hunt Brothers Pizza Chevrolet appeared just a bit off in practice earlier today. Harvick was 8th fastest in single lap time and 9th fastest in 10 lap average speeds. As stated before practice speeds cannot be given too much weight as the track will be much different under the lights but it is still a bit concerning to see the #88 not near the top of the charts. Logano was a bit better in terms of speed finishing 2nd in single lap time and 3rd in 10 lap averages. However, the more concerning factor for Logano is his best Richmond finish is 6th in 4 career starts in the Xfinity Series. The #22 car is probably the best car in the field on a weekly basis but Logano has not been overly impressive at Richmond in this series. It will be interesting to see if that trends continues tonight or if Logano can put the #22 car in contention for another victory.
A couple of guys that I will be eager to see tonight include both Erik Jones and Chase Elliot. Jones moved over to the #54 Monster Energy Toyota this week in replace of Kyle Busch. Jones has been really impressive this season and Richmond really fits his driving style. Jones qualified in the 3rd position so he will have good track position to start his night. Chase Elliot has had a rather quiet 2015 campaign but he was very strong at Richmond in 2014. Elliot posted two runner-up finishes in 2014 and will roll off the grid from the 12th position once the green flag waves. I am not sure if Elliot is strong enough to contend for the victory but he may be someone to consider in H2H match-ups as a driver with value that should move towards the front.
If you are looking for a few other drivers that could have a good run tonight and be considered in match-up situations, consider Brian Scott and Regan Smith. Scott has posted 3 straight top 5 finishes at Richmond in the Xfinity Series. If you remember back in September of 2013, Scott dominated the event by leading 239 of the 250 laps only to lose the race on a late restart to Brad Keselowski. Smith is another guy that has had a lot of consistent strong runs recently at Richmond. Smith has posted 4 straight finishes of 8th or better. Smith was pretty sporty in practices earlier today finishing with the 2nd best 10 lap average so be sure to keep an eye on the #7 car tonight.
ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +350 (2 units): two-time winner, fastest in practice, really strong in race trim, starting on pole
Erik Jones +750 (1 unit): starting 3rd, runs really well on similar Phoenix configuration, solid value play
H2H Match-ups
Chase Elliot -115 over Regan Smith (1 unit)
