Toyota SaveMart 350 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday June 22nd, 2014. 3:19PM Eastern
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: TNT
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Nationwide Series delivered a very exciting race earlier today at Road America and we expect the 2nd round of this weekend’s road racing schedule to be even more exciting when the Sprint Cup Series tackles Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota SaveMart 350. For some drivers, Sonoma provides a vying opportunity to steal a win and earn a berth into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. It takes a unique type of driving talent to excel on road courses and few drivers display that type of talent on a consistent basis in these races. However, race strategy and track position often play a huge factor in determining the outcomes of these races which is one of the reasons Sonoma has produced many surprise winners over the last few years. Should we expect another new face in victory lane for the first time in 2014? Let’s take a look at our thoughts as we provide our Toyota SaveMart 350 race picks.
The first thing bettors must realize for Sunday’s event is this is a wild card race. Some of the drivers that do not typically compete for wins may be in the mix tomorrow especially guys like Marcos Ambrose, AJ Allmendinger, and Martin Truex Jr. Rest assured if any of those drivers and teams are around the lead at the end of tomorrow’s race, they will pull out all stops to capture a win to earn a spot in the Chase. Truex is the defending winner, while Ambrose is great at all road courses, and Allmendinger’s open wheel experience makes him a rock solid driver at Sonoma. Allmendinger has been one of the most consistent front runners this weekend through practices and qualifying. The “Dinger” will roll off 2nd and his odds have been bet dropped from 25 to 1 at openers to currently 8 to 1 at most online books.
The typical favorites anytime the road courses roll around are Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart. Gordon has the most wins all time at Sonoma with 5 trips to victory lane and Smoke is the only other driver with multiple Sonoma wins. Stewart’s record at the road courses has been very impressive when you factor in his 5 wins at Watkins Glen while Gordon has been the undisputed king of Northern California. Perhaps one problem both drivers face this Sunday is their starting position. Track position is everything at Sonoma both Gordon (15th) and Stewart (21st) will have some work to do when the green flag drops Sunday.
If you look through the history books, only two drivers have won from starting positions outside the top 14 through the 25 races at Sonoma which vindicates the importance of track position. Obviously our newsletter pick in Clint Bowyer (+1800) has a big hurdle to overcome starting back in the 25th position. The good news is that Bowyer was excellent in both practices and he has the patience to keep the #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota on the pavement and work his way towards the front.
One of the other early favorites in Marcos Ambrose will have a similar daunting task to race his way through the pack. After appearing to have the most dominate car in practice, Ambrose qualified 23rd. While Ambrose’s odds got better, we just are not that confident in the Aussie at Sonoma considering he has only truly contended for the win once in his career at Sonoma back in 2010. Therefore we think some of his road course racing hype is biased based off his Watkins Glen history. A few other drivers who will be starting up front whose chances look brighter include Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and pole sitter Jamie McMurray. Busch has looked really strong all weekend and I would rank him the #1 driver going into Sunday. Harvick also appears to be very solid but can the #4 Budweiser team avoid ban luck and mistakes on pit road?
Edwards has not made much noise on the race track this week. Most of the talk about Edwards is about his rumored move to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2015 which sources are saying is a done deal. However, Edwards has quietly been really solid this weekend and has posted two 3rd place finishes in his last 3 starts at Sonoma. Most people are aware of Roush-Fenway Racing struggles thus far in 2014 but Sonoma is a track that does not demand a ton of horsepower to be run up front so there is hope the #99 team can have a strong run tomorrow. Jamie McMurray has been excellent at qualifying at Sonoma but has consistently finished in the 10th-15th range. There are some guys in the garage that are high on the #1 team but it’s hard to get excited about McMurray based on his history of mediocrity in Northern California. Perhaps many of our questions about some of these drivers will be answered tomorrow but we believe we have put together a profitable card for tomorrow’s Toyota SaveMart 350.
Toyota SaveMart 350 Race Picks
Clint Bowyer +1800 (1 unit): Newsletter pick, 2nd overall driver rating and average finishing position at Sonoma, finished top two in both practices
Kurt Busch +800 (1.5 units): fastest in 1st practice, finished 1st, 3rd, and 4th in last 3 starts at Sonoma. Starting 5th.
Kevin Harvick +675 (1.5 units): best 10 lap consecutive average in practice 1, finished top 10 in 3 of last 4 starts, starting 6th
Joey Logano +2750 (1 unit): starting 10th, finished 11th or better last 3 starts, Penske fuel strategy could play a factor
Top 3 Finish
Kyle Larson +1150
Carl Edwards +590
H2H Matchups
Martin Truex Jr +140 over Brian Vickers (2 units)
Clint Bowyer -170 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Kyle Busch +100 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -120 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
