Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 25th, 7:14PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Sprint Cup Series returns to the Saturday night stage this evening with the running of the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Last week rain forced several halts and delays at Bristol that turned a day race into a night race. Today Mother Nature appears to be a factor again and may challenge the idea of night racing all together. Whether we go racing later tonight or the race gets postponed until Sunday, we are still preparing for 400 laps of exciting racing at Richmond. Take a look as we preview the contenders and pretenders in our “Toyota Owners 400 race picks” preview!
Among the contenders tonight include a few obvious choices from Kevin Harvick, to Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. Harvick was our newsletter pick early this week at +550 odds. We mentioned the facts that Harvick is a 3 time Richmond winner and also spoke about the similarities between Richmond and Phoenix where Harvick has absolutely dominated with 4 straight wins. If you consider Harvick’s current form, we knew that the +550 odds would be the best the #4 car would be at this week and he is currently listed at less than 4-1 odds.
Therefore the value of the early play definitely benefits our roster today. Outside of Harvick, both Team Penske drivers look poised to challenge tonight as well. Keselowski and Logano won the Richmond races last year and they looked good in practice again. Both drivers also backed up strong practices with good qualifying efforts. Logano won the pole and Keselowski will start in the 7th position. At this point in the game, these 3 drivers look to have the clear edge over the field.
However, let’s not forget that Richmond can quickly decimate a driver’s edge once we get racing. Richmond’s .75 mile surface is really tough on tires which means strategy will come into play and restarts are notoriously crucial at Richmond for gaining and maintaining track position. Therefore do not be surprised to see some dark horses make their way to the front by the end of the night. A few drivers that I believe fit that role include Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne. McMurray and the entire #1 team has been running really well. McMurray finished 2nd back at Phoenix and he has 2 top 5 finishes in last 3 starts.
Ryan Newman is a guy that keeps putting himself towards the front at the end of races. Newman’s 4 top 5 finishes are tied for 2nd most in the Cup Series this year. Newman is another guy that had a great run at Phoenix and his 60-1 odds demand some attention. Finally let’s not rule out Kasey Kahne simply from a bad qualifying effort. Kahne qualified 40th but was also fastest in final practice. Additionally, Kahne was one of the best cars from Hendrick Motorsports back at Phoenix and his recent Richmond performances seem to indicate he will overcome the bad qualifying effort.
Of course there are several other drivers that could become a factor tonight. Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Matt Kenseth are potential candidates. On the flip side, I am going to go out on a limb and label two popular picks tonight as “pretenders.” Denny Hamlin is among the favorites tonight and Jeff Gordon are expected to run well. However, I am not convinced on either. Hamlin has an undeniable solid resume at Richmond but I think he may be a bit overhyped going into tonight’s event due to his 2nd place qualifying effort. Hamlin had decent practices on Friday but was not real good in race trim. Let’s not forget he is one week removed from getting out of the car due to neck and back spasms. Not saying that will happen again, but it can play into the mental factor. Gordon on the other hand had his best run of the year last week at Bristol with a 3rd place finish. However, so far this week Gordon has not been happy with the #24 machine and it has shown on the speed charts. This may be a bold prediction but I expect both to go backwards tonight.
Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks
Kevin Harvick +550 (1.5 units): newsletter pick, 3 time Richmond winner, best 10 lap average in final practice, starting 5th
Joey Logano +850 (1 unit): finishes of 3rd and 1st in the #22 car in spring races at Richmond, starting on pole
Carl Edwards +2000 (1 unit): 2013 winner, 3rd in final practice, 2nd in 10 lap averages, rolling off 18th
Ryan Newman +5500 (.5 unit): 4th best average finish at Richmond among active drivers, 3rd at Phoenix, 2003 winner, strong recent performances at Richmond, starting 23rd
Jamie McMurray +4000 (.5 unit): two 4th place finishes in last 3 starts, 2nd place at Phoenix, 6th best 10 lap average in final practice
H2H Match-ups and Prop Bets
Jimmie Johnson +130 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Chase Elliot (3 units)
Jamie McMurray -105 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Jamie McMurray +1150 (.5 unit) finishes top 3
