Summer Report: NASCAR Top 15 Driver Rankings

NASCAR Betting Preview
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

With last week’s exciting return to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the 2nd time this season, NASCAR’s Cup Series is officially over halfway in the 2022 season. The Next Gen Car has provided parity like the sport has never seen with 13 winners through the opening 19 races. From a betting standpoint, there has definitely been a learning curve with the changes but ultimately I believe the betting picks have been very solid despite some terrible luck at times. For the remainder of the season, we will look to be even sharper and start using more in-season analytics which is likely more relatable than historical trends. This is the same approach that I used last year when we really got hot with our predictions and I am hoping that is the case again this year.

Aside from our betting results, I wanted to take the time to provide a rare opinionated breakdown in how I believe the drivers have performed during the 2022 season. As everyone is aware, the Next Gen Car has produced greater parity among the garage but it has also created a much different feel from behind the wheel. Some drivers have adapted well to the changes while others have struggled more than most would have expected. I wanted to take the time to provide a calculated driver rankings list based on my observations from the season. If nothing else, perhaps this list gives us an idea of the drivers to value in handicapping match-ups for the rest of the season especially at the tracks where driver input is most valuable. Take a look at my breakdown highlighting the top 15 drivers thus far in 2022 with the Next Gen Car.

#15

Chase Briscoe struck lightning early in the season with an impressive victory at Phoenix. The young driver discovered an early advantage at Phoenix with an aggressive shifting strategy and put on a dominating performance to score his 1st career victory. While Briscoe’s consistency has not been as strong this season, I would point to the fact that the Ford teams have struggled more than any other manufacturer this year as well. Even with those struggles, Briscoe nearly pulled out a 2nd victory in the dirt race at Bristol. Needless to say despite the Ford struggles, Briscoe remains one of the top drivers in the series especially on the shorter layouts and is deserving to be in our top 15 list.

#14

NASCAR’s most popular “amigo” broke through for his 1st career victory at Sonoma to give TrackHouse Racing their 3rd victory of the season. While Ross Chastain’s success has been well documented, Suarez has been the driver emerging in recent weeks. After a slow start to the season, Suarez has posted back to back finishes of 5th (Road America) and 6th (Atlanta) in the weeks following the victory at Sonoma. If the #99 team can continue their progression, Suarez will be a driver to watch in the upcoming weeks especially with favorable stops at Pocono, Indianapolis, and Watkins Glen.

#13

If this list was simply a ranking of how drivers have performed against expectations, Kevin Harvick would probably not be on this list. However in terms of simple driver performance against the competition, Harvick has not been totally forgotten with 4 top 5 finishes and 10 top 10 finishes. While I believe struggles of Stewart-Haas Racing and the Ford teams have not helped matters, Harvick still appears to be on the declining moments of his career. Harvick is one of those drivers that has not benefited from the Next Gen Car but still has the overall talent to be relatively competitive.

#12

If you asked me before the start of the season to name a driver that would benefit from the Next Gen Car, Christopher Bell would have been at the top of the list. Surprisingly, Bell has still not cashed a golden ticket this season. However, the 3rd year driver has been solid with 4 top 5 finishes and 10 top 10 finishes on the season. With New Hampshire on the horizon this week, Bell should be given some dark horse value given the fact he won 3 straight times at Loudon in the Xfinity Series and finished runner-up in last year’s Cup Series’ event.

#11

Alex Bowman “backed” his way into another victory early this season at Las Vegas which basically secured his playoff position in just the 3rd race of the season. At the time, it appeared that Bowman may be among the drivers to really benefit from this new package. However, Bowman has not been to victory lane since Las Vegas and has not even posted a top 10 finish since the Kansas race in May. Despite the decline, Bowman’s stats are still fairly good with 3 top 5 finishes and 9 top 10 finishes. Personally, I would expect better results from Bowman as the season progresses but perhaps he is not benefiting from the Next Gen Car as much as we may have expected?

#10

The older Busch has proved that age is just a number. At 43 years old, Busch remains one of the top drivers in the sport. While consistency has not been great from the 45 team with 23XI Racing, Busch found victory lane at Kansas and has come close in recent weeks at Gateway (3rd) and Nashville (2nd). Needless to say, Kurt continues to prove that he belongs among the top drivers in the Cup Series despite the rules, cars, or other factors. I would not be surprised if Busch hits pay dirt again before the end of the year. The hard part is predicting when it will happen!

#9

At the beginning of the year, I predicted Tyler Reddick to be the breakout star of the season in the Cup Series. While I believe Ross Chastain has earned that superlative, Reddick has not completely let me down nor failed to meet expectations. The former two-time Xfinity Series champion beat the greatest road course driver (Chase Elliott) the sport has ever seen at Road America to earn his first career victory. Despite some solid stats that includes 5 top 5 finishes and 7 top 10 finishes, Reddick has actually performed much better but has not always got the finishes to reflect the performance. As this year progresses, I only expect that Reddick will get better.

#8

Young William Byron scored two victories in the first 8 races of the season and was arguably the hottest driver through the early months of the season. Since those first 8 races, Byron has posted just one top 10 finish over the last 11 races which includes a measly 9th place result at Sonoma. Needless to say, the #24 team has been far less competitive in recent weeks but there is still plenty of time to get things turned around especially given the talent of the young driver that has already produced rather difficult victories at Atlanta and Martinsville.

#7

I would really like to have Denny Hamlin higher on this list. After all, Hamlin has already secured two wins (Charlotte and Richmond) this season which is a feat only shared with 4 other drivers in NASCAR’s highest division. The reason I have Hamlin further down my list is because he has not got the finishes he deserves and most of the reasons for that narrative falls on the driver. Hamlin has been penalized more than any other driver on pit road and the #11 team has been penalized more than any other team. Simply put, the driver has to execute better which includes limiting mistakes off pitroad. Another suggestion for Hamlin, perhaps putting a foot down on the Chastain debacle could help matters as well.

#6

Through the opening weeks of the season, Ryan Blaney was a weekly betting favorite and for good reason. The driver of the #12 secured 3 poles in the first 6 races and finishes of 7th or better through 6 of the opening 9 races. While there was a rough stretch from Dover to Charlotte, Blaney and the #12 team are starting to find their speed again with finishes of 6th or betting in 4 of the last 5 races. Considering the stats, it is very surprising that Blaney remains winless. However, I’m sure the wins are coming.

#5

“Sliced Bread” is the driver I could probably rank anywhere on this list and find a way to justify its position. Logano has been absolutely great at points this season in performances at Martinsville, Bristol (dirt), Darlington, and Gateway. However, Logano and the #22 team have also completely missed the mark at points this season as well considering performances like Charlotte, Kansas, Road America, and others. I’m convinced and would argue that Logano remains one of the most universal talents in the Cup Series that can win at any type of venue. However, the in-season performance has not been as consistent as you would expect for a driver that should shine in this Next Gen Car which favors the rawest talents in the sport.

#4

Despite what you may hear on the #18’s radio channel, Kyle Busch has performed well against the competition this year in this new era of manufacturer equality. The two-time series champion secured a victory at the Bristol dirt race thanks to Chase Briscoe’s failed slide job on Tyler Reddick. While Busch has not visited victory lane at any other points in the season, he has still consistently been among the top drivers with 6 top 5 finishes and 11 top 10 finishes. Despite a rough couple of weeks, Busch’s runner-up finishes at Gateway and Charlotte prove that the #18 is still capable of hitting pay dirt on any given weekend. The #18 team just has to do a better job of bringing similar products on a week to week basis.

#3

There is not an argument that anyone could make that would get me to believe that Kyle Larson isn’t the most talented driver in the Cup Series. With that being said, I personally thought Larson would shine more with the Next Gen Car with the narrower setup/chassis advantages with this car. While Larson’s stats are nothing to shy away from (1 win, 8 top 5 finishes, 10 top 10 finishes), I am personally very surprised he has only found victory lane once this season, which was all the way back at Fontana in February. I’m sure more wins are on the horizon but the #5 team needs to look for immediate improvement after 4 straight finishes of 20th or worse.

#2

Love him or hate him, Ross Chastain has become the breakout driver in 2022 and the biggest compliment to the Next Gen Car. Despite his run-ins with Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex, and others on a near weekly basis, Chastain has been the most consistent front-runner in the Cup Series this season with 2 victories, 10 top 5 finishes, and 13 top 10 finishes. Chastain has proven in a very short time that he is among the best raw talents in the sport at the wheel of the Next Gen Car. The problem is that Chastain is not making any friends in the process and “payback” is likely on the horizon. Despite the payback concerns, Chastain and the speed he gets from these new cars is something that is not going away anytime soon.

#1

Remember back in the spring when all 3 of Elliotts’ Hendrick Motorsports teammates had secured victories and the #9 team still had not captured a finish inside the top 10? Well if you don’t, the Elliott haters were in full force at the time. NASCAR’s most popular driver and former Cup Series Champion was overrated, obviously benefiting from the undeniable advantage for being at NASCAR’s most prominent organization. At least, that was the claim of some ignorant fans. Since those wild remarks, Elliott has recorded 3 wins and another runner-up finish in just the last 8 races. Perhaps even more “shocking” is that Elliott’s success has come on a plethora of different venues which speaks to the young phenom’s raw talent. Simply put, Elliott has exceeded expectations in every measurable metric and is my pick for the top ranked driver in the Cup Series at this time.