STP 500 Race Picks

STP 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday March 30th, 2014. 1:13PM Eastern
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FOX
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Both of today’s Sprint Cup Series practices were rained out at Martinsville Speedway. However, the good news is that the weather forecast is promising for tomorrow’s STP 500. More importantly our STP 500 race picks would not have been based off of any of the practice sessions at Martinsville Speedway anyway. Practice sessions at short tracks do not hold a lot of weight towards NASCAR handicapping. Drivers rarely have a clean track which gives misleading data towards 10 lap averages and fast lap time differentials are usually minimal.

The cream of short track racing typically rises to the top at Martinsville which is why guys like Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have 8 wins a piece. So of course we like to keep the great short track racers on our radar but ‘motivation’ may be one of the biggest factors for this Sunday’s race. We have documented the events this week surrounding Denny Hamlin and nobody is more focused to get to victory lane than the driver of the #11 FedEx Toyota. Hamlin actually made a statement in press conferences on Friday promising to win this Sunday’s STP 500 after addressing critics who questioned his character following the events that caused him to miss last week’s Auto Club 400.

Drivers calling their shots are not the norm in NASCAR but considering the source it cannot be overlooked either. The last time Hamlin guaranteed a victory was two years ago at New Hampshire. Hamlin entered the Chase for the Sprint Cup as the top overall seed but ran out of gas in the first race of the Chase at Chicagoland Speedway crippling his chances at a championship. After receiving a lot of criticism for the #11 team running out of gas, Hamlin fired back that they would make up for that mistake by winning at New Hampshire. Hamlin went on to dominate the event by leading 193 of the 300 scheduled laps and capturing the victory to climb back into the championship picture.

Fast forward to this weekend’s STP 500 and the surrounding circumstances are all too similar. Hamlin topped the charts in the first and only practice at Martinsville; then followed suit with a 2nd place qualifying run. Hamlin also has been one of the best at Martinsville in recent years winning 4 times in his 16 career starts. With so much added motivation and impressive short track resume, Denny Hamlin is our top pick to win this Sunday’s STP 500. If Hamlin can capture the victory, it would deliver instant Karma for all those critics and individuals that questioned his motives/character following last week’s Auto Club 400.

If Hamlin cannot get the job done, we like our chances with a few other guys as well. We have talked about Clint Bowyer this week and his 3 top 5 finishes in the last 4 trips at Martinsville. Bowyer qualified in the 12th position for Sunday’s race and his odds significantly improved after qualifying. At 16-1 odds, Bowyer has too much value to pass up. Additionally we will ride with ‘Six-Time’ this Sunday as well. Johnson was our early week pick and it is nearly impossible to leave him off of your roster at Martinsville with 8 victories in 24 starts. Additionally, Johnson will be piloting the same chassis that he drove to victory lane here last April. Hopefully the bad luck that struck our picks last week will have ceased and we feel so confident in our picks this week that we will risk a few extra units in hopes for a big payoff. Good luck!

Race picks to win STP 500:

Jimmie Johnson +450 (2 units)
Clint Bowyer +1600 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +600 (2.5 units)

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