SpongeBob SquarePants 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 9th, 7:46PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Sprint Cup Series is scheduled to go racing tonight at Kansas Speedway in the SpongeBob SquarePants 400. This will be the 2nd attempt in the last 3 races that we will attempt to go racing on a Saturday night. Two weeks ago, rain postponed the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond turning the event from a scheduled Saturday night race to an early Sunday afternoon race. Tonight we attempt to go racing again under the lights at Kansas Speedway, but once again rain will be threatening those plans. Rain is scheduled to start falling shortly after the green flag is scheduled to drop at 7:46PM (EST). Hopefully Mother Nature cooperates long enough to allow a full 400 miles of exciting racing. Take a look at our SpongeBob SquarePants 400 race picks as we hope for a full night of racing at Kansas Speedway.
If you look at tonight’s race from a betting standpoint, then there are some things to get excited about. Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick appear to be the two best cars going into tonight’s event. However, there are several drivers that looked poised to contend for a victory meaning there are not going to be any overwhelming favorites. In fact, several of the guys that could contend tonight have not won a race this year and have really enticing odds for some mid-range long shots. Before we jump into those guys that could score their first win, let’s go back to Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano.
Harvick was fastest in practice 1 and sported the best 10 lap average in final practice. The #4 car has looked really strong and Harvick has the best average finishing position over all drivers over the last 4 starts which includes a win back in October 2013. Logano has been equally strong in recent starts winning at Kansas last fall and has two 4th place finishes prior to that. Logano was out weekly newsletter pick once odds were released and that turned out to be a great pick. Logano won the pole for tonight’s race so needless to say we got a great number on the #22 car for tonight’s race at Kansas. At this point, both Harvick and Logano appear to be the cars to beat even though that could easily change once we get racing later tonight. If you take into consideration how the track will change throughout the night and the added change that rain could cause on the track, then teams are really going to have to stay on top of their changes throughout the night.
Among the guys that should run well tonight and possibly contend for a victory include the likes of Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards, and Martin Truex Jr. Earnhardt may be the least surprising name on that list considering how strong the #88 has been on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Last week’s Talladega winner has finished no worse than 4th at any of the 1.5 mile tracks this season. More importantly Earnhardt looked really good in practices indicating the #88 team has unloaded another really fast car for their 1.5 mile campaign. Martin Truex Jr may have been one of the most impressive cars throughout both practice sessions. Truex finished 4th in final practice and also qualified in the 4th position. I know practice speeds cannot be a reliable indicator of predicting races but rest assured Truex has the resume at Kansas to back up those practice speeds. In fact, Truex has posted two runner-up finishes and another 4th place finish in his last 6 races. Considering how well the #78 has run this year, it would be pretty ignorant to think he does not have a good shot to contend tonight as well.
Lastly, Carl Edwards is another driver that you should take a look at tonight. We actually talked about Carl Edwards in our newsletter preview and I predicted that he would be a great dark horse pick. Those words are looking excellent right now. Edwards was 3rd in the first practice and had the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice. The #19 car also won the first two rounds of qualifying before finishing 5th in the final round which will be where he starts tonight. At just less than 20-1 odds, I think Edwards has a ton of value and is among the group of drivers that could win tonight’s race.
Outside of the names that we like to highlight each week, I also like to take the time to list a few names that I consider fade material. These are drivers that you may want to bet against in H2H match-ups that I think will have a subpar performance. Leading that list this week are the drivers of the #41 and #11 machines. Neither driver has looked real good this weekend nor has Kansas been too kind to either driver. Kurt Busch has only scored 1 top 5 in his career at Kansas and has an average finishing position of 22nd over his last 4 starts. The #41 has been well down the speed charts this weekend and he should be a guy to fade. Additionally, the same factors could be said for Denny Hamlin as well. Even though Carl Edwards has looked strong, everyone knows that JGR is struggling with their 1.5 mile campaign as a group. In fact, Hamlin has been the most outspoken about those struggles and things have not looked real bright for the #11 group thus far this weekend as well.
SpongeBob SquarePants 400 Race Picks
Joey Logano +875 (1.5 units): newsletter pick, most recent Kansas winner last fall, 3 straight top 5 finishes at Kansas, 3rd in final practice, starting on pole
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1400 (1 unit): finished 4th or better on all 1.5 mile tracks, finished 5th in both practice sessions, starting 17th
Carl Edwards +1750 (1 unit): finished 6th or better in last 3 Kansas starts, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice behind Harvick, has looked strong all weekend, starting 5th
Kyle Larson +2000 (.5 unit): two solid runs last year as a rookie at Kansas including runner-up in the fall, looked good in practice 1, sleeper pick, starting 10th
Closing Parlay
Matt Crafton +300 wins Toyota Tundra 250 (winner)
Kevin Harvick +300 wins SpongeBob SquarePants 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +750
H2H Match-ups and Prop Bets
Greg Biffle -115 over Tony Stewart (1 unit)
Carl Edwards +100 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -130 over Kurt Busch (3 units)
Martin Truex Jr +180 finishes top 5 (1 unit)
