Sonoma and Road America Early Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series Betting Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Road course racing excitement hits both of NASCAR’s top two touring series this weekend with the Nationwide Series at Road America on Saturday followed by the running of the Toyota SaveMart 350 at Sonoma Raceway in the Sprint Cup Series on Sunday. Each series warrants a different type of handicapping strategy for our early race picks. Nearly all of the Sprint Cup guys have experience at road courses which gives us some past trends and history to study. However, the Nationwide Series race at Road America is a much different race to predict considering the majority of those young drivers have very limited road racing experience. Still, we think we have done a good job of digging into both races at finding some solid early race picks.
Toyota SaveMart 350 Early Picks
*Reminder our Newsletter pick was Clint Bowyer +1800
Added: Kurt Busch +800
Kurt Busch opened at nearly 8-1 odds everywhere but was quickly bet down to below 5-1 at some shops. However, you can still get Busch at 8-1 at BookMaker.eu if you did not jump on him early. Busch has posted finishes of 1st, 4th, and 3rd in his last 3 starts at Sonoma. Those stout finishes are the best in NASCAR among any driver in his last 3 starts. Perhaps what makes that streak even more remarkable is the fact Busch has posted those finishes with 3 different car owners and 3 different crew chiefs in the last 3 years. Busch enters this Sunday’s event with his 4th team driving the #41 at Stewart-Haas Racing. However, this is by far the best equipment the elder Busch has driven in his recent trips to Sonoma. Busch already has one win this season so they are in the “nothing to lose” type of mindset when it comes to gambling on strategy and track position which occurs often at Sonoma. Therefore, this may be a great opportunity for Busch to score win #2 on the season.
Sprint Cup Qualifying: Jeff Gordon -140 over Jimmie Johsnon (3 units)
This week’s best qualifying play could easily be Jeff Gordon over Jimmie Johnson. The only reason we did not bet more on this match-up is because of the juice. However, Gordon is the lifetime king of Sonoma with 5 wins and owns a 7.5 average starting position through his 21 career starts. Johnson on the other hand has posted a 16.3 average finish through 12 career starts. As good as Gordon has qualified this season, it would be hard to believe the #24 car does not give a serious run at the pole this week. Also, throw in the fact that Gordon was the only Hendrick Motorsports car to test at Sonoma last March on this new GoodYear tire compound. Take the #24 in this match-up.
Sprint Cup Qualifying: Jamie McMurray -120 over Brad Keselowski (1 unit)
Our other pick this week includes Jamie McMurray over Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has made a lot of ground as a respectable road racer since his first few starts in the Sprint Cup Series. However, Keselowski has been best at Watkins Glen. Sonoma on the other hand has remained a struggle for the most part. Keselowski has a career average start position of 20.3 over his 4 starts while McMurray has a 13.7 average starting position over his 11 races at Sonoma. McMurray has also started from the front row 4 times at Sonoma and is very consistent. Keselowski has been a qualifying king this year but things will likely be different this week on the road course at Sonoma. Take the sharp choice here with McMurray
Gardner Denver 200 Early Race Pick: Chase Elliot +500
Our opening pick for the Nationwide Series race is Chase Elliot at Road America this week. This week’s field for the Gardner Denver 200 lacks road course racing experience fairly significantly. There are not any typical ringers but rather all Nationwide Series regulars. Therefore we like the young Elliot to prove once again why he is the future of NASCAR. Elliot has raced at Road America previously last season in the ARCA series. Elliot finished 4th but was actually battling for the lead on the last lap before sliding off course. With so much limited experience in the field, Elliot is a solid early choice. We wish the odds were a little better, but 5-1 will do for now.
