QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 1st, 1:16PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Later this afternoon the Sprint Cup Series will go racing at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500. Despite new 2015 rules changes that reduced engine horsepower, it has not hurt the speeds in the Sprint Cup Series thus far. After several practices and qualifying, cars have actually picked up speed from last year’s mark. Joey Logano captured Sunday’s pole with a lap of 194.683mph just shy of the all-time track record. So what happens when faster speeds unleash for 500 miles on the roughest 1.5 mile surface in NASCAR? We will find out soon enough. Check out our QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 race picks!
Going into Saturday, Kevin Harvick appeared that he may be the driver to beat going into Sunday. The defending Sprint Cup Champion was 2nd in the first practice and posted the fastest lap in final practice as well. However Harvick’s #4 car blew an engine late in Saturday’s Happy Hour meaning “Happy” will now have to start at the back of the field. Obviously, Harvick has shown he has one of the fastest cars but Saturday’s blown engine was definitely a setback for Sunday’s 500 mile event. Outside of Harvick, the cars of Kasey Kahne, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson have all shown a considerable amount of speed thus far this weekend as well.
Kahne captured a rather surprising win at Atlanta last year at 35-1 odds. Kahne is among a few of the drivers that can really run the high groove at Atlanta really well and sustain a lot of momentum off the corners. Kahne come on strong in last year’s race during long green flag runs and expect that to be the case again on Sunday. Kyle Larson is another driver that is notorious for being a great “rim rider.” Larson had a 8th place finish in this race last year as a rookie and has shown a lot of speed throughout practices this week. Both Larson and Kahne’s driving styles really fit Atlanta’s multi groove race track. Considering the way Ganassi cars tested earlier in the week and the way Kahne has practices, both should be a threat for Sunday as semi dark horses.
Though keep in mind, this is still the first true oval race of the season as restrictor plate racing is a completely different type of animal. A lot of cars have shown glimpses of fast speed this weekend which means this is a rather open race from a betting perspective. Joe Gibbs Racing cars have appeared noticeably better from what we have seen so far this season. The JGR cars struggled somewhat on 1.5 mile tracks in 2014 but have shown improvements in terms of single lap speed thus far this weekend. Both Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards have had prior success at Atlanta. Hamlin finished 3rd in this race last year and also posted the best 10 lap average in final practice on Saturday.
From a betting perspective, it may be smart to keep things in a low risk high reward type of strategy. We are going to learn a lot over the next few weeks with these rule changes. Single lap speeds in practice do not mean that cars are going to be face in race trim especially at a place like Atlanta where speeds can drop off over 2 seconds during the course of a full green flag run. Atlanta’s rough surface provides a lot of tire wear which makes for tremendous racing but it also brings a lot of X factors to the table when handicapping this event. So keep those things in mind for tomorrow and do not be afraid to pull the trigger on a few H2H match-ups that are typically easier to take advantage of earlier in the season.
QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 Race Picks
Kyle Larson +1450: 8th place finish at Atlanta last season as a rookie, fastest car in 1st practice, team tested very strong earlier this week.
Denny Hamlin +950: top 5 in both practices including fastest 10 lap average, 3rd place finish at Atlanta last year, 2012 winner.
Carl Edwards +975 (.5 unit): 3 time Atlanta winner, 5th place finish last season, 5th fastest in final practice.
Kasey Kahne +1400 (.5 unit): won this race last year, 2nd fastest in final practice.
H2H Matchups and Props
Denny Hamlin -140 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr -130 over Greg Biffle (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +280 finishies in top 10
