Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Preview

Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Preview

By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Yesterday Dale Earnhardt Jr captured his 2nd win of the season with a victory in the Pocono 400. Junior appeared to be destined for a 2nd place finish before Brad Keselowski’s car started overheating thanks to a piece of trash that was stuck on the grill of his #2 Redd’s Ford. When Keselowski stumbled, Junior took advantage by stealing the lead with 5 laps to go and went on to score the victory. Junior nation now has something to cheer about considering Earnhardt has officially locked himself into the Chase while capturing multiple wins for the first time since 2004. If that is not enough, Junior nation will be on the edge of their seat again this week when the Sprint Cup Series visits Michigan International Speedway for some action packed high speed racing. Before the start of the season, both of Junior’s last two wins were earned at Michigan. Could Junior do the unthinkable and go back to back? Let’s discuss that and more in our Quicken Loans 400 fantasy preview.

For fantasy owners that may not be familiar with Michigan International Speedway, it currently serves as NASCAR’s fastest track. Michigan is a two-mile D shaped track that has the feel and speed of a superspeedway. However, it is not a restrictor plate track like Daytona or Talladega. Most recently Michigan International Speedway was repaved in 2011 which added a ton of grip to the surface. When the Sprint Cup Series returned for the first race in 2012, Marcos Ambrose shattered the track record with a wicked lap of 203.241mph which bettered the prior track record by an average of nearly 10mph. Last August, the generation 6 cars eclipsed that record again when Joey Logano posted an official lap of 203.949mph. Needless to say, if the conditions are right that record could be tested again this week. More importantly Michigan presents some exciting racing with a mix of drafting, side by side racing, and cars hitting ridiculous speeds of more than 215mph down the straightaways.

Michigan International Speedway use to be a track that held two semi boring races each year and was nearly forgotten. Since the repave, it is to quote Doug Demmons, “a ho hum track that is suddenly jacked up on mountain dew.” The speeds alone will make Michigan a race to awe for spectators and old school NASCAR fans that may remember the days Bill Elliot once topped a lap of 212.809mph at Talladega in 1987 which to this day stands as fastest lap ever recorded in NASCAR. In actuality, speeds will not be far off that mark when teams unload on Thursday. So what drivers should we look out for this Sunday? Does Dale Earnhardt Jr have any chance at a repeat?

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While most may consider the idea of Junior going back to back on par with insanity, if there were a place for lightning to strike twice it would definitely be at Michigan. Junior had two bad showings at Michigan in 2013 with miserable 37th and 36th place finishes. However those finishes could be pointed towards bad luck rather than bad performances. Last August, Junior blew out at tire while running 7th and nailed the outside wall which ultimately ended his day. Junior was actually leading last year’s Quicken Loans 400 when the engine suddenly and unexpectedly expired in the #88 machine. Still, in both instances Junior was running really well. If you throw in the win in the Quicken Loans 400 in 2012 along with a 4th place finish in August of 2012, Junior has been one of the most consistent front runners at MIS and is definitely worth putting on your roster again this week.

As for the rest of the field, let’s first point out some potential winners and then some drivers you may want to leave off your roster this week. One of the guys we will have our eye on this week is the #14 of Tony Stewart. Stewart’s speeding penalty on pit road likely cost him the victory at Pocono this past Sunday but he is a driver that is known for bouncing back in big ways. More importantly Smoke has been extremely strong at Michigan posting Top 10 finishes in 15 of his last 19 starts including a 5th place finish in the Quicken Loans 400 last year. If you consider how strong the Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing engines were last week at Pocono, Stewart may be one of your top choices along with Kevin Harvick heading into this weekend’s event.

A few other guys to consider this weekend mainly from the fantasy standpoint include Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, and Carl Edwards. Between those 3 guys, neither driver has finished worse than 11th in each of the past 4 starts at Michigan. Therefore all 3 drivers have some significant fantasy value that you should be able to get at a decent price in salary cap leagues. Biffle and Bowyer teams are not necessarily performing at a winning level. While that does not rule out a winning possibility, both drivers should be good fantasy pickups this week nevertheless.

Lastly we always like to warn our readers of some of the top drivers to leave off of your roster heading into Michigan. There is nothing worse than having a big favorite that is taking up a bunch of salary cap room, post a mediocre performance. Therefore we warn against guys like Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin. Statistically Michigan is one of Johnson’s worse tracks and he has not posted a Top 10 finish in 3 straight starts. Rowdy and teammate Denny Hamlin have been equally bad in recent trips to Michigan. Hamlin’s last 5 showings at MIS are far from respectable with finishes of 35th, 34th, 11th, 20th, and 30th. Meanwhile Rowdy has a rather poor 16.5 career averaging finishing position and has posted just 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 10 starts despite scoring a victory in 2011. Therefore these guys may not be worth the trouble unless things change as the week progresses. Be sure to check back with us later in the week as we give full practice, qualifying, and garage reports which will ultimately lead up to our Quicken Loans 400 race picks this weekend.