Quaker State 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Saturday June 28th, 2014. 7:46PM Eastern
Where: Kentucky Speedway
TV: TNT
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
After two exciting night’s of racing in the Camping World Truck and Nationwide Series’, the main event has arrived as the Sprint Cup Series will drop the hammer on Kentucky Speedway for a Saturday night spectacle in the Quaker State 400. Over the past two night’s, we have noticed how difficult it is to pass at Kentucky Speedway and rest assured track position will be a main factor in Saturday night’s event. As a result, we expect race teams to make bold moves with strategy in effort to get their drivers out front and in position for a victory. Will strategy ultimately decide the winner? Take a look at our thoughts as we lead into our Quaker State 400 race picks and prepare for some old fashioned Saturday night racing at Kentucky Speedway.
While we understand track position will be vitally important tomorrow night, you still need a good car to hang around the front to stay ahead of the strategy game that will unfold throughout 400 scheduled miles at Kentucky. Thus far this week, a few common themes from 2014 appear to remain constant. One of those constants is the continued struggles of Roush-Fenway Racing. Sure Carl Edwards silenced some critics temporarily last week with a win at Sonoma but remember cars were only averaging around 95mph at best at the 2.52 mile road course. This week once the RFR cars unloaded, they have shown once again that they have severe horsepower issues. Both Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards finished outside the top 25 in both practices which is nothing less than disturbing for an organization that was hoping to build off last week’s victory.
Outside of RFR’s downfall, another 2014 constant that is in full force this week is Chevrolet power. Chevrolet cars captured 11 of the top 16 spots in qualifying and have been fast on the speed charts all week. A lot of talk leading up to this week’s race surrounded Hendrick Motorsports engines (also used by Stewart-Haas Racing) and how far ahead of the competition they have been especially in recent weeks. Stewart-Haas Racing cars appeared to be the most dominate of the group off the truck this week. All 4 Stewart-Haas cars finished inside the top 8 in the first practice session and everyone except Kurt Busch finished inside the top 11 in the final practice session as well. Of course Kevin Harvick has piloted the fastest car on nearly a weekly basis in 2014. Happy posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in the final session behind Jimmie Johnson. The question for Harvick, is can the #4 Budweiser team get things together? Harvick’s crew has cost him several times in recent weeks most recently last week at Sonoma. After having a very dominant car through the first half of the race, Harvick was caught up in a wreck after a bad pit stop put him back in the pack. Those types of issues have been consistent with the #4 team and until they are resolved, he is a risky beat even with one of the fastest rides on a weekly basis.
For the six-time champion Jimmie Johnson, as we stated before he posted the best 10 lap average in the final practice session. However, Johnson and the #48 team bombed qualifying with a 25th place effort. Based on Johnson’s trends, he is most dangerous when the #48 car starts towards the front. Hendrick teammate Jeff Gordon may be a sneaky surprise pick for Saturday night. Gordon has the 4th best average finish among drivers at Kentucky and qualified in the 3rd position. Not to mention, Gordon will be piloting the same chassis that he took to victory lane back at Kansas.
If you want to look outside the Chevrolet camp, we still like some of our early picks from our newsletter. We highlighted both Penske Racing cars and took Kyle Busch at 12-1 odds. Busch has not been overly impressive on the speed charts, but rest assured he knows how to get around Kentucky and it would be rather surprising if he is not among the leaders by the end of the night. For the Penske Racing drivers, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano continued their outrageous qualifying campaign. Keselowski earned his 3rd pole of the season and will start from the front row for the 9th time this season through 17 races which is a remarkable feat in itself. Logano will start outside pole in the 2nd position and we like both drivers chances for Saturday’s nights showdown.
Keselowski won this race in 2012 and has been very strong throughout practices. Logano has also had a good history at Kentucky with 3 wins in the Nationwide Series and a pair of strong runs the last two years on the Cup Side. If strategy does come into play, nobody gets better gas mileage than the Penske Racing organization which should give both drivers some options if they want to mix things up with strategy. Of course we will have to wait to see how this race unfolds and if strategy does play into the equation. However, we like some of these drivers that not only have fast cars but are also not scared to shake things up in order to get a victory. Take a look at our Quaker State 400 race picks and be sure to check back closer to race time for some strong H2H plays as well.
Quaker State 400 Race Picks
Kyle Busch +1200 (1 unit): Newsletter pick, 2nd best average finish at Kentucky, starting 18th.
Brad Keselowski +925 (1 unit): 2012 winner, 2nd fastest lap in both practices, fastest 10 lap consecutive average, starting on pole.
Joey Logano +1350 (1 unit): 5th in final practice, excellent on 1.5 mile tracks this season, really happy with car, top 5 finish in first race with Penske at Kentucky last year
Jeff Gordon +1000 (1 unit): good on 1.5 mile tracks this season, starting 3rd, running winning Kansas chassis
H2H Matchups
Paul Menard -165 over Carl Edwards (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -105 over Jimmie Johnson (1 unit)
Clint Bowyer -180 over Greg Biffle (2 units)
Joey Logano -115 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Kyle Larson +110 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Check back for added plays closer to race time
