This Sunday the Sprint Cup Series returns to the fastest track in NASCAR for the Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Back in mid June, Jimmie Johnson earned his 3rd victory of the season by winning the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan. The #48 team was able to gain track position with pit strategy in the closing laps of the race and Johnson held off a fast #4 Budweiser machine from Kevin Harvick to score the win. “Pit strategy” was one of the most talked about aspects from the race back in June and it will be a recurring theme that is played over and over again this Sunday. Pit strategy is always important at Michigan’s fast 2.0 mile speedway and perhaps pit strategy will once again have a major impact towards determining the winner for this Sunday’s race. Take a look as we breakdown the drivers to have on your roster heading into the weekend in our Pure Michigan 400 fantasy preview:
Even when you prepare for a strategy race track like Michigan, the circumstances of picking a winner or filling out a fantasy roster are not much different than normal tracks. Drivers that are going to take a gamble on fuel or pit strategy are normally going to come from the drivers racing in the front of the field. While bettors may have to take odds into consideration to weigh-in on the risk vs. reward aspect, fantasy owners still have to fill their rosters with the cars they expect to get the best finishes. Therefore let’s take a look at the drivers that we think should have strong run and finish in this Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400.
We mentioned earlier that Jimmie Johnson won the Quicken Loans 400 in NASCAR’s most recent stop at Michigan back in June which still has Johnson tied with Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr for the most wins (3) on the season. However, the #48 team has been in a big slump in recent weeks. Since the win at Michigan, Johnson has not recorded a single top 5 finish and has finished outside the top 10 in the last 5 straight races. Michigan has statistically been one of Johnson’s worse tracks. Therefore this Sunday’s race at Michigan will either present an opportunity for Johnson to get back to victory lane or perhaps his struggles could continue based on his track record. Either way, Johnson does not hold much value for fantasy owners this week. Along with Johnson, guys like Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch may be top drivers to stay away from this week based on their inconsistencies at Michigan International Speedway.
So what drivers should you have for this Sunday’s race from the fantasy perspective? Well it all depends on what type of salary cap leagues you are playing in. However, let’s take a look at a few drivers that we believe have a lot of upside this Sunday. One of the favorites that every owner should have is Kevin Harvick. Harvick had the fastest car back in June but was not able to overcome the separation that Johnson gained on the last round of pit stops. As a result, Harvick posted his 3rd straight runner-up finish at Michigan. That’s right 3 straight runner-up finishes for “Happy” at Michigan. If you consider the speed the #4 team has shown this year especially at horsepower tracks like Michigan, it would be impossible to leave Harvick off of fantasy rosters this weekend.
Another driver that should have ton of value and salary cap room is Paul Menard. Menard finished 4th back in June and also won the Nationwide Series race at Michigan that same weekend. Michigan has been one of Menard’s best tracks and he has posted 3 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts which includes a pair of 4th place finishes. He should be a guy that you can get at a cheap price that is still capable of a quality finish. A few more value drivers to consider include Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle.
In the last 10 races, Bowyer has the best average finishing position among drivers with multiple starts. Despite having just 1 top 5 finish in 2013, Bowyer has averaged a 9.5 average finishing position through his last 10 starts which includes 8 top 10 finishes. Meanwhile, Michigan has historically been Greg Biffle’s best track. The “Biff” has two wins in the last 4 races at Michigan and 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 starts. Obviously Roush-Fenway Racing has had huge horsepower concerns this season which has resulted in several disappointing finishes for at these high horsepower tracks like Michigan. However, Roush-Fenway cars have a strong testing at Michigan a few weeks ago and this may be a good opportunity to grab Biffle on your fantasy roster this 2nd time around.
Top 10 Driver Ratings at Michigan
#16-Greg Biffle 107.8
#20-Matt Kenseth 104.5
#48-Jimmie Johnson 102.9
#99-Carl Edwards 102.2
#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr. 97.5
#14-Tony Stewart 95.8
#24-Jeff Gordon 91.2
#18-Kyle Busch 91.1
#41-Kurt Busch 90.0
#42-Kyle Larson 89.7
