Pocono 400 Race Picks

Pocono 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono Raceway
Date and Time: Sunday June 8th, 2014 1:15PM Eastern
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: TNT
By:NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Earlier today, Sprint Cup drivers and teams wrapped up final preparations for tomorrow’s Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway. Kevin Harvick emerged from Saturday’s practices as the potential car to beat. Harvick topped the leaderboard in both practices on Saturday and also posted the best 10 lap consecutive average from either session. With Jimmie Johnson starting towards the back, ‘Happy’ Harvick is starting to get a lot of attention from bettors and odds makers. So what are Harvick’s chances this Sunday? Find out along with the rest of our thoughts on tomorrow’s race at the tricky triangle as we provide our Pocono 400 race picks.

First off, let’s warn folks not to get too excited at practice speeds. Not only are practice speeds overrated, but they are especially misleading at a place like Pocono. With that said, Harvick does have a few tangibles on his side that give him some value at 6-1 odds. Harvick is running the same #4 Budweiser chassis that dominated at Darlington to lead 238 of 374 laps in route to victory lane. To some fans, a chassis selection at a place like Darlington and Pocono may not seem to correlate. However, both tracks put tremendous focus on the ‘balance’ of a racecar which is hard to dial in at either track. Since this particular chassis has performed so well at similar turn radiuses and banking, it is hard to ignore Harvick’s chances when you add in the fact they are running Hendrick Motorsports engines under the hood of that #4 car.

In fact if you look at final practice speeds, Chevrolet engines occupied 5 of the top 6 positions. While things will change greatly once the green flag drops tomorrow and cars get into race trim, it still gives us a good gauge as to which manufactures are producing raw speed. Of those 6 drivers, 5 could be traced back to Hendrick Motorsports engines which you consider the lineage at Stewart-Haas Racing. Chevrolet engines have been very impressive thus far but we will have to see if that trend continues throughout 400 miles tomorrow at Pocono.

One thing that is certain about tomorrow’s Pocono 400 is that the playing field appears fairly level. In our Pocono fantasy preview, we talked about how hard it is to get race setups dialed in at the tricky triangle and how this race more than others requires a full team effort. That single concept has resulted in several different winners over the past few years and it will be interesting to see if another new face visits victory lane for the first time in 2014. The challenge for race teams tomorrow will be trying to keep up with the race track and making the right adjustments on pit road. Still a level playing field gives bettors many chances to hit a decent payday considering most drivers are listed at 10-1 odds or better.

A few names that you may want to consider this weekend that may not normally be on your radar any given Sunday include Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne. We noted in our newsletter that Ryan Newman is a former Pocono winner and currently has the 5th best average finish among active drivers. Newman is the only driver to have improved his finishing position in each start since the Pocono resurfacing starting in 2012 which includes two top 5 finishes in 2013. The elder Busch, Smoke, and Kahne all have two wins at the tricky triangle. Stewart and Busch have been fast since unloading on Friday and Pocono is a racetrack where both can contend despite their subpar performances thus far in 2013.

Kahne is running the same chassis that finished 3rd at Kansas earlier this year and he won the most recent trip to the Poconos back in August. Kahne is definitely in the right equipment to get the job done. All Hendrick Motorsports drivers have been solid thus far this week. Both Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have the top two average finishes at the 2.5 mile triangle. Gordon leads all active drivers with 6 victories. Of course a lot of people will be watching the #48 car this weekend as Jimmie Johnson seeks his 3rd straight victory in the last 3 weeks. Johnson is the defending winner of the Pocono 400 and was really happy with his #48 Lowes Chevrolet in race trim earlier today during final practice. With those thoughts in mind, let’s move forward and break down our race picks for the Pocono 400.

Pocono 400 Race Picks:

Ryan Newman +3000: Our Newsletter pick at openers with very generous 30-1 odds. Newman posted two Top 5 finishes in 2013, former Pocono winner, 5th best average finishing position among active drivers, and 5th in final practice. *Also 1 of 11 drivers that participated in testing at Pocono two weeks ago.
Denny Hamlin +1100: Another driver we talked about early in the week. Hamlin has 4 wins in 16 career starts (2nd among active drivers) including 8 Top 5 finishes and starting from the pole.
Jeff Gordon +875: Gordon leads the all-time win list at Pocono. Unlike most of his wins, the 42 year old has been really good in recent years winning twice since 2011. Gordon is driving the winning Kansas chassis, starting 5th.
Tony Stewart +2000: Smoke is slowly but surely returning to form. After a great run at Dover, Smoke returns to Pocono where he has posted 2 wins and 12 Top 5 finishes through 30 starts. Stewart will be starting 12th and running new chassis for 2014.
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1550: 6th in final practice, running 12th place Fontana chassis, finished top 5 in each Pocono race in 2013.

Cover Parlay

Stewart-Haas Driver Wins Pocono 400 +200
Brian Vickers +105 over Kyle Larson
To win: +520