Pocono 400 Fantasy Preview

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will visit the “tricky triangle” this Sunday as teams prepare for 400 miles at Pocono Raceway. Considered one of the most difficult racetracks in NASCAR, Pocono Raceway is an extremely fast, flat, and wide 2.5 mile raceway with 3 distinct turns at each end of the track. One of the most unique aspects of Pocono Raceway is that the track is vastly different at each of its 3 turns and that makes car setups extremely difficult to dial in. It is not uncommon for a car to work really well in turn 1 then be terrible by the time it reaches turn 3 or vice versa. This week drivers and crews will be working extremely hard to find the most advantageous balance around this 2.5 triangle to put themselves in position for a win come Sunday.

Pocono Raceway was recently repaved prior to the 2012 season. While the repave job did not take away from some of the racetrack’s distinct characteristics in each turn, it definitely changed the feel of the racetrack and added some grip. As a result, speeds have reached an all-time high in the Poconos which was evident last August when Kasey Kahne shattered the track record with a lap of 180.654mph. Chances are that record will be topped again this weekend as teams continue progress into the evolution of the Generation 6 car.

From a spectator viewpoint, fans either love or hate Pocono. At times, Pocono’s size can be its Achilles Heel as cars get strung out on long green flag runs. However at other times, racing action can be intense with cars battling door to door while drafting down the front stretch and diving into turn 1 at over 200mph. Fortunately we have seen more of the latter benefits since Pocono’s repave and hopefully we will see some of that exciting racing again this weekend.

Once the track was repaved prior to the 2012 season, the race was also reduced from 500 to 400 miles for both Pocono races. For nearly 40 years, Pocono has run 500 mile races but has experienced some of its best racing since going to 400 miles and condensing the racing action. This plays into the hands of handicappers and NASCAR fantasy owners because it limits some of the fuel strategy that often played out in the 500 mile races. While certain pit strategies could still make an impact this Sunday, Pocono’s layout often rewards the fastest cars with congruent finishing positions. Therefore a lot of value can be found by those drivers that know how to get around the tricky triangle and that will be our main angle for this Sunday’s Pocono 400.

Obviously Jimmie Johnson will likely be the overall favorite this weekend. Johnson has won two straight races and will be going for the Hat Trick at a place where has already posted 3 career wins. Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with 6 wins at Pocono including two victories since 2011. Another favorite that will be on many folk’s radar this week includes Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is arguably having the best season of any Joe Gibbs Racing driver and has 4 victories at Dover through just 16 starts equaling a career 25% win percentage. Hamlin has a very impressive run last week at Dover where he has really struggled throughout his career and that could really play into the momentum factor of the #11 team this Sunday.

Outside of the favorites, a good fantasy owner must be able to identify those drivers with lower salary caps or risk that can put together a really strong finish. Those “value” drivers this weekend could come in the trio of Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Ryan Newman. I know many people cringe when you hear Dale Earnhardt Jr being mentioned as a longshot. After all, he has received way too many underserving labels throughout his car. However, Junebug has performed really well at Pocono in recent years. Throw out a bad finish in the fall of 2012 and Junior has finished no worse than 9th in his 5 other most recent starts. The same could be said for Ryan Newman who has also posted a finish of 9th or better in 5 of his last 6 starts. Newman’s only finish outside the top 10 in the last 3 years was a 12 place finish in June of 2012.

Smoke on the other hand may not be just a fantasy sleeper but maybe a viable longshot pick to win the Pocono 400. Many are a little shy to bet on Smoke and rightfully so considering even Stewart has confirmed that he is not 100% healthy since last year’s Sprint Car wreck that broke his leg. However, Smoke climbed back into a Sprint Car last week for the first time and followed that up with one of his best runs of the year at Dover. Stewart raced in the Top 5 throughout the entire 2nd half of the race before sliding back to a 7th place finish. This week Tony looks to keep that momentum and where better to do it than in the Poconos? Pocono has been Smoke’s best track and he has the best average finish among all active drivers over the past 10 races with a stout 6.9 average finishing position. We will wait to see how the #14 team unloads this week. If he is fast like we expect, do not be surprised if Tony delivers the ‘feel good’ story of the weekend.

As always be sure to check back through the week as we discuss opening odds, early picks, practice recaps, race picks, and more.