O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 10th, 8:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s one week hiatus ends tonight when the Xfinity Series goes racing under the lights at Texas Motor Speedway in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300. A stacked field awaits tonight’s 300 mile event including Sprint Cup Series stars Dale Earnhardt Jr, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Austin Dillon who are poised to challenge for the victory. However, one year ago it was rookie Chase Elliot that stole the spotlight at Texas as he outdueled a host of Sprint Cup Series veterans to score the first victory of his career. The win was the first of 3 that vaulted Elliot towards his 2014 Xfinity Series Championship. Tonight Darrell Wallace Jr, Erik Jones, and Ty Dillon are a few of the young names along with Elliot that are looking to emerge victorious from the lights of Texas Motor Speedway.
Austin Dillon dominated both of Thursday’s practices by setting the fastest time in each session. Dillon has been a speed demon in Xfinity Series practice sessions this session and has finished on top of the charts rather often. The last time Dillon swept both practice sessions, he drove the #3 car to victory back at Las Vegas earlier this year. However, I am not convinced the 3 car is near as dominate as it was back at Las Vegas where Dillon lead 183 of 200 laps. Dillon was fast on single lap speed but the car seemed to have considerable drop off on longer runs. Obviously practice sessions can be misleading but there seemed to be some definitive drop off with the #3 car in longer runs.
There were several other interesting names that lingered towards the top of Thursday’s practices. Regan Smith, Erik Jones, and Darrell Wallace Jr are a few of the names that we mentioned in the opening that are trying to make a big statement tonight. Erik Jones is a guy that just gets better with every start. Jones has posted back to back top 5 finishes going back to Phoenix and Fontana. The #20 car was not overly impressive in Thursday’s practices but Jones posted the fastest lap in every qualifying session earlier to win the pole for tonight’s race. The pole marks the 2nd straight pole for Erik Jones going back to Fontana where he finished 5th. Therefore it appears the team has made a few improvements and has Jones another solid ride that should be able to contend once the green flag waves.
Wallace Jr has not had the greatest start to his rookie season in the Xfinity Series. “Bubba” has just one top 10 finish coming back at Las Vegas but the team has been steadily improving with speed from week to week. Regan Smith is a guy that has been very quiet this season. Oddly, Smith has finished 9th in 3 of the 5 races this season and had a season best 3rd place run at Las Vegas. While Smith has not really contended for victories this season, tonight could be a different story. All of the JR Motorsports cars looked very solid in race trim on Thursday. Dale Earnhardt Jr led all drivers with the best 10 lap average in final practice and Smith was 2nd. Chase Elliot was a bit down the speed charts but do not be too alarmed. Elliot does not typically post lavish practice speeds but should be solid when the sun goes down later today.
Two other contenders that we have yet to mention include both the #22 of Brad Keselowski and #54 of Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has been very mediocre in his Xfinity Series starts thus far in 2015 with finishes of 4th and 18th at Vegas and California. I say mediocre because we are accustomed to Hamlin challenging for victories in the Xfinity Series but that has not been the case thus far in 2015. After a pair of average practice sessions along with a 11th place qualifying effort, I expect another “mediocre” type finish from the #54 machine later in the neighborhood of a 5th-9th place effort. Keselowski on the other hand, I have much higher expectations. The #22 car has been fast in all facets of the weekend and even qualified on the outside of the front row for tonight’s event. More importantly Bad Brad knows how to get the job done at Texas. Keselowski won his last Texas start in 2015 and has finished no worse than 5th in 8 of his last 9 starts in the Xfinity Series at TMS. Expect the #22 to be in the thick of things later this evening!
O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks
Dale Earnhardt Jr +600 (1.5 units): 1998 winner, fastest 10 lap average in final practice, starting 5th
Ty Dillon +3700 (.5 unit): value play, 3rd place at Atlanta, never qualifies good so odds are worth the gamble
Parlay
Brad Keselowski +150 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 300
Slot 2 – Open
H2H Matchups
Ty Dillon +120 over Brian Scott (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -140 over Denny Hamlin (1 unit)
