O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Preview and Picks
Nationwide Series at Texas
Date and Time: Friday April 4th, 2014. 8:46PM Eastern
Where: Texas Motor Speedway Bristol, T.N.
TV: ESPN2
By:NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Friday night lights will shine on the high banks of Texas Motor Speedway this evening when the Nationwide Series takes the green flag for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300. Tonight’s field is stacked with a host of Sprint Cup heavyweights including Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Kevin Harvick. However, it was the Nationwide Series regulars that shined in Thursday practices and perhaps poised to steal the spotlight. Take a look at our O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 preview and picks below:
It is fairly common knowledge that the Sprint Cup drivers are heavily favored any time they make a Sprint Cup start. Nationwide Series regulars only captured 5 victories out of the entire 33 race schedule in 2013 hence the domination of the Sprint Cup guys. That trend has been even more obvious at Texas Motor Speedway where Sprint Cup guys have won 16 of the past 19 Nationwide Races inside the Lonestar state. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick lead all drivers with 5 victories each. Busch is a heavy favorite each week and is his current odds are a disgusting 1.5 to 1. With so much talent in the field, there is no way we could take Busch at that price despite his strong resume at Texas.
Both Dale Earnhardt Jr and Matt Kenseth have captured Nationwide Series wins at Texas in the past. Kenseth dominated the Sprint Cup Series at nearly every 1.5 mile track last season and is a threat anytime he makes a start in either series. However, neither Kenseth nor Earnhardt was particularly impressive in practice. Sure practices are not always the best indicator for race wins, but you still like to see some speed from your picks as well. Earnhardt was 12th fastest in both practices and Kenseth did not show any speed until the afternoon session on Thursday. We expect both drivers will find their way to the front, but there is a big difference in running up front and winning races from the handicapping side of things.
While the Sprint Cup drivers have dominated at Texas, that still does not mean we should not put some attention towards the young guys. Ty Dillon topped the charts in both of Thursday’s practice sessions and also held the best 10 lap average in the 2nd session as well. While Dillon is making his first Nationwide Series start at Texas this week, he has found success at the 1.5 mile speedway in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. Dillon finished 2nd while leading the most laps in the spring race at Texas and then captured a win at Texas in November by dominating to lead 130 of the 147 scheduled laps. Dillon obviously unloaded a fast car this week and may be worth a look at +1000 odds. Dillon and Chase Elliot have been extremely impressive as rookies this year. Elliot is the next superstar for the sport and we think he may be closing in on his first win as well. Elliot unloaded strong and he has proven to be a threat each week.
Another young guy that we think has a good shot tonight is Ryan Blaney in the #22 car. The #22 Discount Tire Ford is normally shared between Blaney and Keselowski. Keselowski had a ton of success at Texas last year in this #22 machine capturing a win and a 2nd place finish at both Texas races. Two years ago, Blaney filled in for Keselowski in this same #22 car at Texas and drove to a 2nd place finish at just 19 years old. Not only does the young gun have the talent to stay up front this week but he has the equipment as well.
NASCARWAGERS Picks to Win:
Kevin Harvick +550 (2 units): Harvick has 5 wins at Texas in the NNS. Car was solid in both practice sessions and should be good on long runs.
Chase Elliot +1800 (1 unit): As mentioned before, Elliot is closing in on his first win and Texas has been nice to first time winners. Perhaps the stars align tonight for the young 2nd generation driver.
Ty Dillon +1100 (1 unit): Success in Camping World Truck Series at Texas. Led both practices on Thursday.
