NASCARWagers Power Ranking Following Texas
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The fight for dominance in the Cup Series continues to be a 3-way battle just as it was during the end of the 2017 campaign between Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Busch. Following Kyle Busch’s breakthrough win last weekend at Texas, the #18 team is beginning to look like an every week favorite once again. Favorites have been the name of the game so far this year in the Cup Series and in terms of betting. Clint Bowyer’s win at Martinsville was the only “surprising” victory this season and only driver over 10-1 odds to win since Daytona. While the favorite’s narrative may not go away anytime soon, there are several drivers that are climbing the ranks in terms of competitiveness. As the Cup Series moves away from the traditional 1.5-2.0 mile surfaces, there will be plenty of advantageous opportunities in the next few weeks with tracks like Bristol, Richmond, Talladega, and Dover next on the calendar. We take this time to breakdown our NASCARWagers power rankings following Texas for drivers to watch as we move into this exciting stretch of races over the next few weeks.
#10 – Erik Jones
I got Erik Jones jumping into the top 10 this week based on recent performance with 4 top 10 finishes in the last 5 races including a season best 4th last week at Texas. The #20 team is starting to show consistent speed and his dark horse potential as the next 1st time winner is growing daily. It seems crazy to say but if you think about their current forms, Jones could be on pace to score a race victory before Chase Elliott.
#9 – Denny Hamlin
I am still pretty mad about Hamlin’s performance last week. I thought he had a car capable of winning and looked to be in dominating control of a H2H matchup. Instead, Hamlin was caught speeding on pit road yet again and then decided to drive into the door of the #10 car to create a wreck. As you can see, I still loathe Sunday’s performance from the #11 car and what it did to my betting card. With that being said, Sunday’s performance at Texas was not all too uncommon with what we have seen from the #11 car this season. They have been really fast at times and at other points simply been unable to avoid mistakes. From a pure speed standpoint, the #11 team has been a top 5 car nearly every week. They just have to do better collectively to finish races from week to week.
#8 – Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski had a strong start to the season with several respectful finishes including a 2nd at Atlanta, 6th at Vegas, and a 4th at Fontana. The #2 team has not been as good in recent weeks and has also had a bit of bad luck mixed in. I still think this team, like teammate Joey Logano, need to make a few more gains before they are ready to contend. However with Talladega looming on the horizon, nobody will have a better shot at victory than Bad Brad.
#7 – Kyle Larson
In some aspects, it seems like Kyle Larson has been one of the bigger disappointment stories of the year. He struggled at Martinsville, struggled at Phoenix, and blew a tire last week at Texas resulting in a 36th place finish. However, he did have really strong finishes at Las Vegas and California. From talent alone, we have to assume Larson will breakout with a victory eventually. Bristol and Dover could be great opportunities.
#6 – Clint Bowyer
Bowyer’s breakthrough victory at Martinsville increases his overall value on our rankings. It helps that all Stewart-Haas Racing cars have been fast on a near weekly basis as well. If you look at the results, Bowyer has been very solid with a 3rd at Atlanta, 6th at Phoenix, the win at Martinsville, and most recently a 9th place finish at Texas. I also think Bowyer could continue to impress over the next few weeks at venues where he has historically performed well.
#5 – Joey Logano
Joey Logano is flying under the radar a bit this season but he continues to post solid results. He has posted finishes of 7th or better in 6 of 7 races this season. In fact, Logano’s 6 top 10 finishes are tied with Kyle Busch for the most on the season. The problem is the #22 team is still not where they need to be in terms of competing for wins. With just 38 laps led on the season, the team needs a bit more speed before I expect a victory. The good news is that the team is within striking distance if they can make just a few more gains.
#4 – Ryan Blaney
Everyone better start paying attention to Ryan Blaney. The #12 team and driver appears to be getting faster each week. Despite front-end damage last week at Texas, Blaney was still able to drive back to a 5th place finish making it his 3rd top 5 finish in the last 5 races. Perhaps more surprising than anything, Blaney is currently the best performing driver from Team Penske and he is a driver to watch over the next few weeks. Remember, Bristol was the site of Blaney’s 2nd career Xfinity Series victory and I expect he will be a strong contender this week based on his current form.
#3 – Martin Truex Jr
The dominant win in the Auto Club 400 was reminiscent to Truex’s 2017 form. He led 125 of the 200 laps in route to victory. Before last week’s blown tire at Texas, Truex had tallied 5 straight top 5 finishes. He may not have quite the speed that he showed a year ago at this point in the season. However, the defending champion has proved that he is not going away. The upcoming schedule does not fit Truex’s historical strengths in terms of track performance but I have no doubt that the #78 team is going to continue to be a factor as the season progresses.
#2 – Kyle Busch
Finally! After so many close calls, Busch finally closed the deal last week with a victory at Texas in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Now with a check in the win column, his stats look even more impressive with finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in his last 5 races. Needless to say, the gap is closing on the top spot!
#1 – Kevin Harvick
Harvick still has the top spot locked down thanks to 3 straight victories at Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. Even if you take away those victories for the sake of argument, Harvick has arguably still had the fastest car in the last 2 races. He wrecked early in the Auto Club 400 as the overall favorite and possibly fastest car in the field. Then last week Harvick once again had the fastest car but the team had several problems on pit road that kept them out of victory lane. Even with the problems, Harvick was still able to drive from a lap down to a runner-up finish. From a speed standpoint, Harvick and the #4 team are still the class of the field. However, they have to find a way to avoid the mistakes going forward.
