NASCAR Playoffs Championship Betting Odds
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Preview
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Last week, Daytona International Speedway provided a dramatic close to NASCAR’s regular season. Not only did Austin Dillon come through with a Hail Mary victory to earn a playoff berth but Ryan Blaney officially locked down the final playoff position on points. As a result, the Cup Series’ playoff field is officially set and 16 drivers will have the luxury of fighting for a championship starting this Sunday with the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Before the playoff racing begins, I wanted to take a look at the playoff field and provide some betting advice for those interested in championship betting.
As I have preached throughout the year, the Next Gen Car has provided an enormous amount of parity to NASCAR’s top division perhaps more than any other time in history. With more equal equipment and a razor thin margin of era with the drivers behind the wheel, every week has brought surprise performances both on the good side and the bad. Consistency and winning races is going to be very important over the next few weeks as drivers attempt to advance through each round. As we look at the championship odds for each driver, we have to consider the likelihood of each drivers’ chances of advancing over the next several races. Below, I have provided a complete breakdown about the odds for each driver and my thoughts on their chances at winning a championship:
Current Standings
| RK | DRIVER | POINTS | WINS | TOP 5 | TOP 10 |
|---|
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 2040 | 4 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Joey Logano | 2025 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Ross Chastain | 2020 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 2019 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | William Byron | 2014 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Denny Hamlin | 2013 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 2013 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick | 2012 | 2 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Kevin Harvick | 2012 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Christopher Bell | 2011 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 11 | Kyle Busch | 2010 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | Chase Briscoe | 2009 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Daniel Suarez | 2007 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Austin Cindric | 2006 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Alex Bowman | 2006 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 2005 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
Current Betting Odds
| Championship | Odds |
|---|
| Chase Elliott | +275 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 |
| Ross Chastain | +850 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1500 |
| Christopher Bell | +1600 |
| Daniel Suarez | +3000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +4000 |
| Austin Cindric | +7000 |
| Austin Dillon | +8000 |
Championship Betting Thoughts
#16 – Austin Dillon +8000
Austin Dillon’s Hail Mary victory last week at Daytona will get the #3 car in the hunt however this is a team that has not shown the performance to compete for a championship. Even if an underdog driver like Austin Dillon makes the championship 4 at Phoenix, they have not shown the ability to contend for victories which is often needed in the championship finale. As a result, I don’t like Dillon’s chances. However, I will say that Dillon has capitalized on finishing position throughout the season so it would not surprise me if he is able to advance a round or two.
#15 – Alex Bowman +3500
If you would have told me at the beginning of the year, Alex Bowman would be in the championship field and be given 35-1 odds, I would have probably jumped all over that value. Instead, Bowman has been basically non-mentionable during the 2nd half of the season. Bowman has just 1 top 10 finish since the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte back in May. Consider how well his Hendrick Motorsports’ comrades of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron have performed; it makes Bowman’s late-season performance all the more confusing. For whatever the reason may be, Bowman and this #48 team do not have any championship potential unless something drastically changes.
#14 – Austin Cindric +7000
If Austin Cindric can get to Phoenix, he could provoke huge underdog potential because he actually runs well at Phoenix. Obviously, the bigger obstacle will be getting to Phoenix among the Championship 4. While I don’t believe Cindric has shown the consistency to make it to Phoenix in his first year, I will say that I like Cindric’s prop bet value to make it to the Round of 8. To do so, he simply has to survive the opening round and then he will draw an excellent slate of races in the Round of 12 at a superspeedway (Talladega) and road course (ROVAL) where Cindric excels! Therefore, I feel as Cindric has an opportunity to make a deeper run than most would predict.
#13 – Daniel Suarez +3000
Of all the first time winners this season, Daniel Suarez’s victory at Sonoma may have been among the most surprising. Suarez is yet another long shot to win the title and for rightful reasons when you look at his career stats. However, Trackhouse Racing has been the breakout team of the season and Suarez’s 10 top 10 finishes are nothing to ignore. While I don’t believe championship speed has been shown by the #99 team, surviving a round or two on consistency is not out of the realm of possibility.
#12 – Chase Briscoe +4000
Chase Briscoe is another driver that could be dangerous at Phoenix if they are among the Championship 4. Briscoe’s only victory this season came at Phoenix in the spring and it was a truly dominant performance in that event. The problem is the speed to survive rounds just has not been there from the #14 team throughout the 2nd half of the season. As a result, I’m leaning towards an early exit for the Briscoe and don’t find any value in his current championship odds despite the fact he is the most recent winner at Phoenix!
#11 – Kyle Busch +1000
Perhaps it is a little surprising that Rowdy finished 11th in the standings based on how fast he has been throughout the season, nevertheless Busch sits in the 11th spot going into the Chase and knowing he will not be returning to the #18 car at Joe Gibbs Racing. For Busch’s JGR farewell tour, I would not be surprised if he contends for the title. The #18 team and JGR is not going to tank; additionally Busch has the talent edge despite the equipment parity. For those reasons, I like Busch’s chance to make a run at the championship and honestly I would not mind seeing it happen for storyline reasons.
#10 – Christopher Bell +1800
If you are going to make a championship bet before the playoffs begin, I think Christopher Bell is one of the most appetizing choices on the board. The young driver has really shined with the progression of the Next Gen Car and I believe we are seeing a potential star emerge behind the wheel of the #20 car. Bell is tied for 2nd with the most top 10 finishes (14) this season and he has been putting together some quality performances in recent weeks. Bell’s talent is pretty diverse which will help him in the playoffs and he is yet another driver that would likely be really strong at Phoenix. For those reasons, I really like Bell’s current betting value!
#9 – Kevin Harvick +1200
If these betting odds were posted about a month ago, bettors would probably be getting 50-1 odds on Harvick due to the #4 teams’ cold streak. However following back to back wins at Michigan and Richmond combined with a couple of additional solid performances in the last few races of the season, Harvick’s betting odds are much lower than most would have expected. While I would admit the #4 team has become more dangerous, I don’t think I could imagine anyone taking Harvick at his current odds.
#8 – Tyler Reddick +1500
Many will not remember but I had Tyler Reddick listed as my breakout driver of 2022 before the season began. I mentioned that Reddick was one of the most underrated talents and that he would benefit from the Next Gen Car. While Reddick’s two victories and breakout success was predicted by yours truly, I never saw both of those victories coming at road courses. More importantly, I would have not predicted Reddick to be so inconsistent this year either. Despite showing some really strong performances, Reddick has not shown the consistency to be a true championship contender.
#7 – Ryan Blaney +1000
While many will see Blaney as the only driver in the field without a win, he should be viewed as the 3rd best driver in points throughout the season. Needless to say, Blaney has definitely shown the speed and consistency to go deep in these playoffs. Personally, I thought the #12 team was performing much better at the start of the season compared to their current form. For that reason, I don’t see Blaney as a betting option but I would not be surprised to see this #12 team contend either.
#6 – Denny Hamlin +700
I know there are a lot of reasons to avoid betting Denny Hamlin in the playoffs. Hamlin’s playoff track record and the team’s consistent penalties on pit road are a couple of reasons that come to mind. However, I would venture out on a limb to say Hamlin is probably the best championship contender behind Chase Elliott going into the start of the playoffs. The #11 team has been fast everywhere this year and Hamlin is pretty good everywhere the schedule takes us. As a result, I like Hamlin as a viable betting option among the favorites.
#5 – William Byron +1800
I like William Byron the driver so I would obviously like to see him contend for a championship. With that being said, I am avoiding Byron like the plague from a betting standpoint. The #24 team has not been strong throughout the 2nd half of the year. I don’t think it’s bad luck, team execution, or even driver related. Instead, I believe the #24 team is behind (like the #48) and until proven otherwise I just don’t see any reason to back Byron.
#4 – Kyle Larson +600
I will always refer to Larson as the most talented driver in the Cup Series and since I have that strong opinion of his outright talent; I must admit that I am surprised that Larson has not been better this year following last year’s championship run. Until the win at Watkins Glen, Larson had only shown maybe 1-2 other really strong performances since his victory at Fontana in February. With that type of inconsistency, I cannot make any type of claim that Larson’s current betting odds hold any type of value. If we were judging simply by racing talent, it may be different. Unfortunately, that is not the case in the betting world.
#3 – Ross Chastain +850
I really think Ross Chastain has the speed to win a championship with this Next Gen Car. I mean everyone knows he has the aggression to get the job done as well. Unfortunately, I just cannot ignore all the enemies he has made this season and when some of those enemies lose their shot at a championship as this Chase unfolds; I think the chances of Chastain receiving retaliation gets really high. For those reasons, I am staying away from the +850 betting tag. However if you don’t fear the retaliation angle, Chastain’s current value is not that bad!
#2 – Joey Logano +1400
I think I like the betting value on Joey Logano more than I like the realistic probability he ends the season as the Cup Series Champion. We know Logano has the talent and all of the tools needed to go after a 2nd Cup Series title. However, I just don’t like the speed of the #22 team or any of the Fords throughout the latter part of the season to feel any type of confidence. As a result, I think we have to be smart and simply stay away from the #22 team.
#1 – Chase Elliott +270
Bias alert, I have always been a Chase Elliott fan so I am pulling for him to get his 2nd championship. After all, Elliott has been the premier driver in the Cup Series this year which was evident by his regular season title and series leading 4 victories. The problem with Elliott is not so much the parity with the Next Gen Car or even unpredictability of playoff races, rather it is in the sub 3-1 betting odds the phenom is receiving. Look, I think Elliott winning in NASCAR’s most competitive season in history would be perfect karma for the growing amount of Chase Elliott haters. With that being said, I just don’t see any betting value in his current odds.
