Las Vegas Betting Recap
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Earlier today Kevin Harvick dominated for the 2nd straight week to win the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It was Harvick’s 2nd straight win going back to last week’s victory at Atlanta. As the Cup Series continues its West Coast swing next week at Phoenix, Harvick will be a favorite to make it 3 in a row at ISM Raceway where he owns a record 8 victories including 6 wins in the last 11 races. Before we start preparations for Phoenix, I wanted to take this time to highlight a few key trends that we should expect to continue over the next few weeks and into the season.
If you follow our race picks, then you probably realize that we profited with Harvick in each of the last two races and I personally picked him as the overall favorite in both of those races as well. From an odds standpoint, things were tough this week at Vegas. We faced tough odds in nearly all races which limited profit potential and even heightened our betting risk. However, I chose to limit our betting units in both the Truck and Xfinity Series races. I felt like the value was poor in those races but overall we managed to scrape out a profit with the win in the Kobalt 400. I am not recapping these results in a braggadocious manner because any NASCAR bettor will go through winning and losing streaks. However, I do want to point out the importance of knowing when to limit bets and keep things rather conservative when the value is not there. If you can grind out profits during weekend’s when odds are poor, you will win the long term battle.
Outside of stressing the importance of risk management, I did want to take this time to highlight a few trends that I believe will continue as we move forward this season. From a betting standpoint, we should have a pretty good idea of where teams currently stand at the start of 2018 from witnessing our 2nd straight 1.5 mile setup. Surely teams will evolve, progress, and even regress throughout the year. However, let’s take note of where things currently stand and what we can expect in the near future:
Brett Moffitt
In my Stratosphere 200 preview, I made the comment that Brett Moffitt’s victory at Atlanta would not be a one hit wonder. I went back and rewatched the Atlanta race going into this weekend’s race at Vegas. I was thoroughly impressed at what Moffitt was able to accomplish from the driver seat and he displayed another show of talent in Friday’s Stratosphere 200. Moffitt led 27 laps and was in position for another victory before an incident with a vehicle a lap down. Despite the unfortunate ending, Moffitt was very impressive. I mean anytime you pass Kyle Busch for the lead under green you are technically doing a great job. Not only has Moffitt done a great job behind the wheel, but the #16 has shown great overall speed. If you are not familiar, the #16 team is a product of Hattori Racing which has support from TRD which is proving to be a strong combination. As we move forward in the Truck Series, Moffitt appears to be deserving of one of the best favorites with Johnny Sauter over all other Truck Series regulars.
Xfinity Series – Favorites
After Kevin Harvick dominated the Xfinity Series at Atlanta two weeks ago, Kyle Larson continued the dominance this week by leading 142 of the 200 laps in route to a victory in the Boyd Gaming 300. Kyle Busch surprisingly struggled but that did not keep the Cup Series guys from dominating as Larson and Ryan Blaney were still the class of the field. The only Xfinity Series regular that has shown competitive speed among the Cup Series drivers is rookie Christopher Bell who finished 2nd. Bell has posted two straight strong finishes but he currently appears to be the only driver that has shown “winning” speed. As most are aware, the Cup Series drivers will be racing in almost all of these early season races because they will accompany the Cup Series in terms of venues. Additionally since Cup Series drivers cannot compete during the Xfinity Series Chase, then they have to make the best of their starts during the early part of the year.
From my observations, the cars that the Cup Series drivers are jumping into are very strong. The #22 has returned to form, all of the JGR cars have speed, and the #42 has been excellent going back to the end of 2017. Heck, Harvick even dominated in the #98 car which was added from Biagi-DenBeste Racing who also fields the #00 for Cole Custer. Whether it is the speed that the cars these Cup Series drivers are stepping into, their overall talent, the lack of parity from the Xfinity Series regulars, or a combination of both; I believe we should expect these Cup Series guys to continue to dominate. I am sure Christopher Bell will eventually break through. However outside of Bell, who else is going to beat Cup Series competition at traditional ovals? As a result, I think we should be prepared to be conservative in the Xfinity Series from a betting standpoint. I don’t think we throw an excessive amount of units wagered at the Cup Series drivers to increase our profits. I think that may be too risky especially if we have to keep picking between 3-4 Cup Series drivers. Instead, I think we have to be patient with future odds, capitalize on our parlays when offered, and really take advantage of matchups early in the week before line movement kills our ROI.
Cup Series – Ford and Harvick
I am sure some people thought I was making a big deal of Ford team’s performance at Atlanta but I think after today’s race at Las Vegas nobody can deny the fact any long. Ford power has an advantage. I don’t know where they found the speed or what has changed from 2017. All I know is they have the speed. I made the comment before today’s Kobalt 400 that Harvick has looked like his 2014-2015 form when he dominated the Cup Series nearly every week. Not only has Harvick been dominate but it is safe to say all Ford teams have performed extremely well. Team Penske looked excellent today. Ryan Blaney won the pole and kept the car upfront all day. Joey Logano led several laps and was flirting with a victory. Brad Keselowski was not quite as good as I thought he would be but still brought home a 6th place finish.
I know the examples above are from names that we expect to run upfront. However, there was a time during today’s race where those cars were running 1st through 4th. If you need additional evidence, Kurt Busch had another strong run before he ended up in a wreck. Hell, even guys like Paul Menard and Aric Almirola powered Ford engines to a top 10 finish. Therefore I just want to be clear, this is not a coincidence. Those teams have speed under the hood and the rest of the teams are playing catch up. Obviously Toyota is not that far off but as it stands today, Ford teams have the upperhand. From that simple fact alone, we should expect Kevin Harvick to be a top car on a weekly basis and it will likely only be a matter of team before Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski start tallying wins.
