Kobalt Tools 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 8th, 3:46PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tomorrow the Sprint Cup Series will drop the green flag at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Kobalt Tools 400. Jeff Gordon set the tone for a Vegas weekend on Friday by laying down a blistering fast lap of 194.679mph which set a new track record. So for those that thought speeds would go down in 2015 due to a reduction in horsepower that theory has been blown out of the water for the 2nd straight week in a row. For Gordon, it appeared that his pole winning lap was the start of good things after sustaining wrecks in each of the first two races. However Gordon was collected in an incident in the final minutes of final practice on Saturday when Danica Patrick lost control of her car in turn 2. The damage sustained to the #24 car forced Gordon and the team to go to a backup car meaning he will start shotgun on the field as his run of bad luck continues. However Gordon still may be a factor on Sunday along with a few others. Check out our Kobalt Tools 400 race picks in our NASCAR betting preview of racing in Vegas!
Despite the bad luck with Gordon, the #24 team will still unload a backup car that has proven to be fast in last year’s Charlotte and Chicago races. Based on how much speed Hendrick Motorsports has shown over the weekend, expect the #24 car to be just fine. Perhaps it will just take him a little longer to get to the front since he will have to start at the rear of the field but I do not think the car change will be a big factor when the green flag waves. As for the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports brigade, all of their guys have looked really strong this week. Jimmie Johnson, fresh off of last week’s win at Atlanta, has been the car to beat thus far posting the fastest lap in both of Saturday’s practices. Johnson also posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice behind Kyle Larson. Johnson leads all drivers with 4 victories at Las Vegas so with those factors combined he is definitely the guy to beat going into Sunday. Also keep an eye on both Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne. Kahne had a great qualifying effort and typically backs up good qualifying efforts with good finishes. Meanwhile Dale Earnhardt Jr has been fast on the speed charts as well. Earnhardt ran out of gas on the last lap while leading this race a year ago and has 3 runner-up finishes on his Las Vegas resume. Therefore expect the #88 to hang out at the front on Sunday.
So who can break up the Hendrick Motorsports brigade on Sunday? Well the most obvious choice would be Kevin Harvick. “Happy” has picked up right where he left off in 2014 with two straight runner-up finishes following his Sprint Cup Championship last season. Harvick’s “freaky fast” #4 Jimmy John’s machine has become the car to beat almost on a weekly basis. Harvick was in the top 5 in both of Saturday’s practices and also posted the best 10 lap average in the early session. Harvick has never won at Las Vegas in 14 starts but this may be his best opportunity on Sunday. Along with Harvick, expect Joey Logano to continue his strong start in 2015. Logano backed up his Daytona 500 victory with a 4th place finish at Atlanta and the #22 car has looked equally fast thus far again this weekend. It is rather surprising that Logano is the guy that has been carrying the banter for Team Penske this season while Brad Keselowski has struggled somewhat. Keselowski is a former Sprint Cup Series Champion and lead the series in wins last year with six. Therefore it is rather surprising to see Logano running so well with Keselowski being virtually quiet thus far.
If you are a few potential long shots or guys that should have some value in matchups. Consider both Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. We discussed earlier in the week about the surprising start that Truex and the #78 team has shown in the first two weeks of the season. The car has been fast everywhere and the team has unloaded another strong car again this week. More importantly Truex has ran pretty well at Las Vegas over the past few trips. With an even faster ride this year, expect that #78 machine to continue his impressive start if he can stay out of trouble. Additionally Kyle Larson has also shown a lot of speed so far this weekend. The driver of the #42 car posted the best 10 lap average in final practice and looked really good on the long runs. Las Vegas plays into Larson’s driving style as the groove typically moves up the racetrack during long green flag runs. We saw last year at Chicago and Kansas that Larson can really find speed on tracks that force you to move around late in runs which should be the case again on Sunday especially with a softer tire that Goodyear has brought to Vegas.
Kobalt Tools 400 Race Picks
Joey Logano +1200 (1 unit): 2nd in final practice, very strong thus far in 2015 including 4th last week at Atlanta, two wins on 1.5 mile tracks in 2014 including 4th place finish at LVMS
Kyle Larson +1900 (1 unit): fastest 10 lap average in final practice, came on really strong at the end of 2014 at 1.5 mile tracks, should be good on long runs
Matt Kenseth +1100 (1 unit): 3 time Las Vegas winner with most recent win in 2013, following a strong run last week at Atlanta
Winning Parlay
Austin Dillon +285 wins Boyd Gaming 300
Kevin Harvick/Jimmie Johnson +183 wins Kobalt Tools 400
To win: +990
H2H Matchups and Props
Martin Truex Jr -140 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -130 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Matt Kenseth -125 over Carl Edwards (1 unit)
Danica Patrick -125 finishes over 23.5 (1 unit)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +260(1 unit) finishes top 3
