Last Sunday, Austin Dillon scored the 2nd straight upset victory in the Cup Series by winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Following Cole Custer’s 300 to 1 odds victory at Kentucky, Dillon’s Sunday ticket cashed at 100 to 1 odds making it the first time in NASCAR history that drivers cashed winning tickets at 100 to 1 odds or greater in consecutive weeks. This week we take a look at a few drivers that should be kept on everyone’s radar as betting returns Thursday night for the Cup Series at Kansas Speedway with the running of the Super Start Batteries 400.
Admittedly, our picks for all races last weekend were extremely frustrating from a betting standpoint. Despite going 6-3 in H2H match-ups for the week, the majority of our betting interest was marred in bad luck and misfortune. Christian Eckes (+1350) had the fastest Truck in the Vankor 350 but lost the race on the final pit stop to Kyle Busch. Justin Allgaier (+1540) had the fastest car in the Xfinity race but was nailed for a blend line violation late in the race. Though I had Austin Cindric in my picks, the race was graded a win for Kyle Busch at 5Dimes. Then in Sunday’s Cup Series event, I felt like we had the race covered on all fronts. All H2H’s were dominant and we had 4 out of the top 5-6 cars for the majority of the race with Ryan Blaney leading the charge. Unfortunately an untimely caution and strategy ruined what should have been a really strong betting afternoon.
Despite the recent run of bad luck on the betting side, eventually the law or probabilities will prevail as long as we keep making strong picks. Fortunately for bettors, the Cup Series has produced two really huge underdog victories in the last two weeks. In both situations, drivers Cole Custer and Austin Dillon took advantage of strategy and track position. Cole Custer was in the 12th position with 13 laps to go at Kentucky before two phenomenal restarts and Dillon was barely a top 15 car on speed before the pit strategy in Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. As we move quickly towards another similar venue at Kansas Speedway this Thursday, I felt it would be a good time to look back at the last two weeks of performance data to ensure we are targeting the correct drivers again this week.
Luckily Kansas Speedway has a lot of similarities to the two 1.5 mile venues the Cup Series has visited in recent weeks at Kentucky and Texas. In fact, I would consider Kansas Speedway the perfect hybrid of Kentucky and Texas when you consider the surface age of the asphalt, grip level, and banking in all corners. With those factors in mind, let’s take a look at the performance trends over the last two weeks to determine a few early targets to keep on our radar for this short turnaround going into Thursday.
Loop Data from Kentucky and Texas
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Quality Passes | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 127.7 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | -2 | 111 | 119 | 168 | 601 |
| Aric Almirola | 120.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | -14 | 84 | 78 | 163 | 601 |
| Joey Logano | 108.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | -21 | 103 | 15 | 22 | 601 |
| Kevin Harvick | 103.8 | 4.0 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 10.0 | 31 | 133 | 25 | 51 | 601 |
| Kurt Busch | 100.8 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 13 | 134 | 33 | 0 | 601 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 96.7 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 20 | 85 | 40 | 72 | 587 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 96.7 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | -3 | 116 | 11 | 2 | 601 |
| Kyle Busch | 91.7 | 2.5 | 19.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 | -4 | 100 | 15 | 20 | 601 |
| Brad Keselowski | 91.0 | 6.0 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -6 | 105 | 12 | 49 | 601 |
| Chase Elliott | 87.1 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 17.5 | 10.5 | -18 | 75 | 24 | 0 | 601 |
| Clint Bowyer | 87.0 | 16.0 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | -4 | 103 | 9 | 0 | 601 |
| Austin Dillon | 86.6 | 20.0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 32 | 96 | 8 | 22 | 601 |
| Tyler Reddick | 81.8 | 24.0 | 20.5 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 32 | 69 | 15 | 5 | 601 |
| Erik Jones | 81.7 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 11 | 86 | 10 | 7 | 601 |
| Cole Custer | 81.2 | 24.0 | 13.5 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 46 | 75 | 8 | 5 | 486 |
| Alex Bowman | 80.7 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 24.5 | 11.5 | -27 | 69 | 15 | 0 | 586 |
| Chris Buescher | 79.9 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 19.5 | 16.5 | -17 | 64 | 9 | 0 | 600 |
| Denny Hamlin | 78.5 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 13.5 | -29 | 111 | 10 | 11 | 600 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 75.5 | 20.0 | 23.5 | 22.0 | 19.0 | 53 | 78 | 20 | 0 | 589 |
| William Byron | 72.8 | 19.5 | 23.5 | 24.0 | 16.5 | 15 | 80 | 4 | 4 | 519 |
| Christopher Bell | 65.0 | 33.5 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 20.5 | 3 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 598 |
| Ryan Newman | 64.2 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 | -20 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 601 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 61.4 | 13.5 | 18.5 | 33.5 | 24.5 | -4 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 485 |
| Matt Kenseth | 61.1 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 21.5 | 21.0 | 9 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 601 |
| Michael McDowell | 57.0 | 32.0 | 24.5 | 19.5 | 23.0 | -8 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 601 |
| Bubba Wallace | 56.2 | 16.0 | 22.5 | 20.5 | 23.5 | -37 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 599 |
| Ty Dillon | 55.0 | 31.5 | 19.0 | 25.5 | 22.5 | -16 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 530 |
| Corey LaJoie | 48.8 | 31.5 | 25.5 | 22.0 | 26.0 | -23 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 598 |
| Ryan Preece | 47.8 | 28.5 | 20.5 | 39.0 | 28.5 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 376 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 46.8 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 29.0 | 26.0 | -4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 579 |
| Daniel Suarez | 45.3 | 37.0 | 31.0 | 24.5 | 29.0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 596 |
| Brennan Poole | 40.9 | 31.5 | 33.5 | 29.0 | 31.5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 581 |
| J.J. Yeley | 39.6 | 35.5 | 31.5 | 27.0 | 30.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 588 |
| Quin Houff | 32.1 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 34.5 | 33.5 | -5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 550 |
| Josh Bilicki | 31.0 | 26.5 | 36.5 | 31.5 | 36.0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 575 |
| Joey Gase | 27.6 | 33.0 | 37.0 | 33.0 | 36.0 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 575 |
| Timmy Hill | 27.1 | 38.0 | 39.0 | 36.5 | 37.0 | -4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 424 |
I am a firm believer that finishing positions do not always tell the entire story of a race. Last week, Ryan Blaney had phenomenal speed and I did not see anyone beating the #12 without strategy calls on pit road. Despite finishes of 6th and 7th in the last two races, the dominant run at Texas vaults Ryan Blaney to the #1 spot in our loop data which really should not be surprising. I have long declared Blaney the best car on 1.5 mile surfaces this year but the #12 team has been unable to convert the speed into victories.
Perhaps the most surprising aspect to the loop data stats shown above is the fact that Aric Almirola ranks in the #2 spot. The fact that Almirola ranks above Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott over the last couple of weeks really shines light on the speed shown by the #10 team. I was aggressive with Almirola at 22 to 1 odds on betting openers last week and would have loved to see if the #10 could have pulled out the victory without the pit penalty and strategy blunders.
One of the most important handicapping strengths for bettors is identifying trend reversals. When a driver is trending a certain direction, noticing when that trend starts to move in the other direction can be very profitable. One of the trend reversals I believe we are in the midst of is speed gained by the #19 team of Martin Truex. After struggling quite a bit at the beginning of the year, Truex has started to look like his old self on the 1.5 mile venues. The #19 has shown the best speed of the Gibbs cars and that should make Truex a contender this week with momentum building going into Thursday at a track where he swept both races in 2017.
If we are looking for potential underdogs to pull off another upset victory, I think Aric Almirola and Matt DiBenedetto are the strongest possibilities of drivers that can go out and earn a victory. As we have seen in recent weeks, anybody can win under the right circumstances as Austin Dillon proved on Sunday. The problem is we can’t always predict circumstantial possibilities. However, Almirola and DiBenedetto have the raw speed to go out and earn a win the hard way. I’m sure Almirola’s odds will probably dip this week but keep DiBenedetto on your radar as well. The #21 has been getting better every week and is starting to match the speed of his Team Penske allies. I feel like odds are not reflecting the speed of the #21 (mainly because they go by track history) machine and perhaps we can use that to our advantage this week!
Drivers headed in the wrong direction
Each week in my official previews and race picks, I usually list a couple of drivers that should be faded in the form of H2H match-ups. I have not done all of my handicapping research for Kansas yet so some opinions may change slightly. However, I am keeping Alex Bowman and Clint Bowyer on my fade radar going into Kansas.
After a great start to the season, the #88 team with Alex Bowman has lost all of their momentum. I would even state that Hendrick Motorsports has lost their momentum because even Chase Elliott has been struggling at the 1.5 mile venues. For Bowman, odds makers still give him a lot of respect due to his hot start. In last week’s race at Texas, Bowman was paired against guys like Almirola, Kurt Busch, and Chase Elliott. All 3 of those oppositions have shown far better speed than Bowman in the last several weeks and I don’t expect that trend to change for the short turnaround this Thursday.
Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer’s struggles remain semi-mysterious. In the last two weeks, I have hailed Stewart-Haas Racing cars as the best in terms of raw aerodynamic speed on the 1.5 mile tracks. Harvick has been great, Almirola has been really strong, Cole Custer got a win at Kentucky, and yet Bowyer is struggling to crack the top 15 each week. I’m not sure what is going on but the #14 team looks like they are from a completely different organization in terms of speed. Until that trend changes, Bowyer remains a potential fade target.
*As always, be sure to check back for the official race preview for the Super Start Batteries 400 as I provide all handicapping race picks and betting tips for this Thursday’s Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway!
