Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday October 5th, 2014. 2:18PM Eastern
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: ESPN
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
12 drivers hunt for a Sprint Cup Championship continues today with the start of the ‘Contender Round’ in the Chase for the Sprint Cup at Kansas Speedway. Today’s Hollywood Casino 400 marks the start of another grueling 3 race stretch to keep those championship hopes alive. In this ‘survival of the fittest’ playoff scenario, drivers must either win or position their selves in the top 8 points positions to move onto the next round of the Chase. While the Chase drivers have certainly gathered all of the media focus, there are still a few non-chase drivers that could be a threat to steal a victory today. Find out our thoughts and take a look at our Hollywood Casino 400 race picks.
Sprint Cup drivers and teams participated in 3 different practice sessions over the weekend to prepare for today’s Hollywood Casino 400 that will see the green flag drop at approximately 2:18pm (EST). From everything we have observed at this point, Kevin Harvick has impressed the most throughout the weekend. Harvick won his 3rd straight pole at Kansas Speedway for today’s Hollywood Casino 400. “Happy” was also 2nd fastest in both the first and final practice sessions. Harvick dominated the race back in May at Kansas leading 119 of the 267 laps but only managed a runner-up finish. Harvick’s inability to seal the deal with fast race cars have been a theme this year whether it was pit road mistakes or simply misfortune on the race track. It appears Harvick should be among the cars to beat this afternoon but he still remains a risky bet for bettors based on the #4 team’s trend of not finishing races this season.
Outside of the #4 team, today’s race may be fairly wide open. The surface of Kansas Speedway, which is fairly new, does not cause a lot of wear on tires. Therefore, track position will be essential towards keeping an opportunity at a victory alive. In the Nationwide Series race on Saturday, we witnessed a lot of two tire and gas only strategies on pit road which will likely be the case again today. The good news for bettors is the fact that there are several of drivers with really good odds that have shown speed this weekend. All of the Hendrick Motorsports brigade outside of Jimmie Johnson have looked strong throughout all practices. While the #48 seems to be behind, Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr have been strong. Earnhardt finished with the 2nd fastest 10 lap average in final practice and Kahne has remained towards the top of the leaderboards following each practice. In May, Kahne ran really well all afternoon to bring home a 3rd place finish and it appears the #5 team could have another strong car this afternoon. Earnhardt and Kahne may be worth the strong consideration because both drivers are receiving generous odds.
Also, nobody can count out Jeff Gordon at this point in the season out of that Hendrick Motorsports brigade. Gordon and Brad Keselowski have easily been the strongest drivers during the 2nd half of the season. The #24 team captured a win last week at Dover and now returns to Kansas which is the site of their first victory of 2014 back in May. Gordon topped the charts in practice #1 and was 8th fastest in final practice. Expect the #24 ‘Drive to end Hunger’ Chevrolet to be a factor again today. In fact, the case could be made for a lot of Chevrolet drivers in today’s race. Chevrolet horsepower has dominated the speed charts this weekend with a few Ford drivers mixed in at the front as well. Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota’s have been on the bottom half of those speed charts and it will be interesting to see if any of those drivers can make up for the lack of speed through this weekend’s practices.
Still, you have to give those Chevrolet drivers the clear advantage for today’s race. A couple of long shots that bettors may want to consider come from Chip Ganassi Racing drivers Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray. Both the #1 and #42 cars have been very impressive throughout practices. Larson nearly spoiled the start of the Chase with a victory at Chicagoland before a late caution ruined his opportunity. However, the #42 car has been as consistent as anyone thus far with finishes of 3rd, 2nd, and 6th in the Chase. I fully expect the youngster to contend again as he remains the biggest threat to steal a victory from the Chase drivers.
Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks
Kasey Kahne +1800 (1.5 units): newsletter pick, 5.6 average finishing position at Kansas in last 6 starts, 3rd in final practice, starting 5th.
Kyle Larson +1200 (1 unit): finished 12th in first Kansas start in May, has run really strong in Chase finishing no worse than 6th, car was fastest in final practice and solid in race trim, starting 10th
Jamie McMurray +4800 (.5 unit): fast throughout all pratices finishing as high as 2nd in practice 2, solid on 1.5 mile tracks this season, starting 14th
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200 (1 unit): fast all weekend, finished 5th back in May, 8th fastest in practice 1, 2nd best 10 lap average, starting 8th
Cover Parlay
Harvick +275 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Carl Edwards -130 over Tony Stewart
Jamie McMurray -165 over Kurt Busch
To win: +975
H2H Matchups and Props
Kasey Kahne -115 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Carl Edwards -130 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Jeff Gordon -150 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -115 finishes over 8.5 (2 units)
