Hendrick Motorsports strong at Dover
NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
After rain postponed NASCAR’s running of the Gander RV 400 on Sunday, Martin Truex Jr scored a dominating win at Dover International Speedway on Monday by leading 132 of 400 laps in route to victory. After Truex’s #19 car failed pre-race inspection on Sunday, his chances for another Dover win appeared grim. However, Dover has been one of Truex’s best tracks including the site of his 1st career victory in 2007. Truex used his experience, long run speed, and Dover magic to drive from the rear of the field to win by a 9.5 second margin of victory in convincing fashion. Aside from Truex’s dominance, one of the bigger surprises on Monday included the emergence of Hendrick Motorsports who had their best performance of the season including 3 cars in the top 8 finishing positions. Hendrick Motorsports has shown signs of progress this year especially on the tracks that are 1 mile in length or less. Still the question remains, can we trust the Hendrick Motorsports brigade moving forward?
Hendrick Motorsports strong at Dover
Before Chase Elliott scored Hendrick Motorsports’ first victory of the season at Talladega, the entire organization had just two Top 5 finishes for the entire 2019 season. As everyone is aware, Talladega is the ultimate manufacturer equalizer in terms of performance with the assistance of tapered spacers and the draft. Therefore, Elliott’s win at Talladega cannot be included as a gauge towards Hendrick Motorsports current performance standard. However, the organization appeared to take a legitimate step forward on Monday at the Monster Mile. Chase Elliott led a race-high 145 laps and was among the cars to beat all afternoon. William Byron parlayed a runner-up starting spot into a strong run that resulted in an 8th place finish.
Yet, the biggest surprise of the afternoon came from the #88 team and Alex Bowman. The #88 car was among 4 cars that failed pre-race inspection on Sunday resulting in Bowman forfeiting the 5th place starting spot. To paint a bitter picture of pre-race expectations, Bowman yielded a 29.5 career average finishing position going into the weekend at the Monster Mile and honestly never stood out in any practices throughout the weekend. Yet, Bowman drove from the rear of the field and even took the lead under green flag conditions during the 2nd half of the race. Bowman tied his best career finish with a runner-up performance in what I can only categorize as the best true performance of his career. Meanwhile, the only driver that did not finish in the Top 10 was Jimmie Johnson who reluctantly brought home a 14th place finish. Obviously I am sure Johnson and the #48 team were disappointed considering their historical success at the Monster Mile but they still ran relatively well throughout the afternoon. Johnson was inside the top 10 for much of the afternoon but lost several positions late in the race as the #48 attempted a strategy call to stretch their fuel window in hopes for a fortuitous caution that never came.
Either way you look at it, Hendrick Motorsports’ performance on Monday was eye opening. It was the first time that we saw the entire organization run well on the same weekend (on a traditional oval) since last year’s Bristol night race. The question that must be asked now is can we expect the success to continue? Before Monday, I doubt most casual fans would have stated that they believed Alex Bowman, William Byron, nor Jimmie Johnson would win a race in 2019 unless they had one fall in their lap at Daytona or Talladega. However if Hendrick Motorsports can put together a few more performances together like we witnessed at the Monster Mile, that sentiment will quickly change.
Hendrick Motorsports expectations moving forward
I do believe we are seeing legitimate improvements throughout the Hendrick Motorsports organization. The problem is that the improvements are still not relaying into the best results on the 1.5 mile layouts and the schedule is about to get busy with 1.5 mile layouts with Kansas and Charlotte on the near horizon. Until we see better results on the 1.5 mile layouts or the horsepower tracks in general, I am going to remain skeptical. Chase Elliott obviously has the talent to win anywhere but we have to remember that both Alex Bowman and William Byron are still really young from an experience standpoint. I am also starting to believe the #48 may never return to form.
For the immediate outlook, I would not expect the same type of results from Hendrick Motorsports at Kansas this weekend or Charlotte over the following two weeks. I just do not believe the organization is where they need to be on the 1.5 mile tracks to legitimately backup their Dover performance. The 1.5 mile tracks are very “aero” dependent in terms of setup and overall speed. Not only has Hendrick struggled at these tracks but Chevrolet as a manufacturer. However, I will say keep your eyes on the Pocono 400 in the first week of June. Pocono is a bigger track but it is also a flatter surface which is a completely different ballgame from a setup standpoint. More importantly, Hendrick Motorsports has been historically dominate at the Tricky Triangle. Even with the current roster of drivers, both William Byron and Alex Bowman looked strong in the 2018 races at Pocono. If there was a track where we could see another similar performance compared to what we saw on Monday, Pocono is the place!
