Handicapping Notes following Las Vegas
In NASCAR betting, the early part of the season is dedicated to learning new changes, trends, and strategies that will prepare yourself for the remainder of the year. If you pay close attention, it is possible to catch a few hot trends before they are noticed by odds makers whether it is a hot driver having a breakout season or simply other types of useful trends that can help add bucks to your bankroll. Today we look at a few undeniable handicapping facts following last Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway that may just set the stage for 2015. Keep these handicapping notes in mind as we move forward to Phoenix!
Harvick remains on Top!
At this point, it is pretty clear that Kevin Harvick is the man to beat. The reigning Sprint Cup Champion has not backed off from his stellar 2014 campaign. In fact, he appears as strong as ever. Last week’s win at Las Vegas marked the 6th straight race going back to last year that Harvick has finished inside the top 2. To make matters more impressive, Harvick has done it on all tracks sizes from small to large which includes a restrictor plate runner-up finish in this year’s Daytona 500. At this point, Harvick is on top of his game and bettors must find a way to cash in. Sure Harvick’s odds are low each week and sometimes even overvalued. However, bettors can find ways to cash in on his success just as our NASCARWagers picks did this week by parlaying him into Saturday’s Xfinity Series winner with Austin Dillon which resulted in just less than a 10 unit profit. Even if you miss out on parlay options, Harvick has been dominate in H2H match-ups as well. Therefore bettors have to find a way to get in on his success especially with Phoenix on the horizon, the place where “Happy” has won 4 of the last 5 races.
Roush-Fenway Racing = No Improvement
One of the main storylines from 2014 surrounded the decline of Roush-Fenway Racing. The team struggled everywhere and especially at tracks that demanded horsepower. After losing their best driver over the offseason with Carl Edwards moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, many wondered if the Roush-Fenway organization could bounce back in 2015. After 3 races, the undeniable answer is “no.” In fact, they may be even worse. Over the past two weeks at 1.5 tracks, which make up the vast majority of the Sprint Cup Series schedule, the best finish among any Roush-Fenway Racing driver is 16th by Greg Biffle. The team is still struggling severely with horsepower. Additionally, young drivers Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr have not shown any potential to get things headed in the right direction. Keep this information in mind for when the Sprint Cup Series visits Auto Club Speedway in two weeks, a big 2.0 mile track that demands horsepower.
Tony Stewart?
We are not trying to bash any driver but goodness what has happened to Smoke? The subpar performance last year after the tragic sprint car accident was understandable given all the issues, emotions, and circumstances that surrounded that event. However, Stewart has never rebounded from that accident nor really shown any improvement since he first broke his leg in a sprint car a few years ago. Stewart’s best finish this season was 30th at Atlanta and he was absolutely awful in terms of speed last week at Las Vegas. It would be a little different if Stewart was fast like say Jeff Gordon and just kept running into trouble. Instead, Smoke has not shown the least bit of speed which is surprising considering he is a 3-time series champion and owner of the team that is putting the fastest car on the track every week, AKA the #4 machine of Kevin Harvick. At this point, it is utterly shocking to see Stewart perform at such a disappointing level.
Do not sleep on the sleepers!
There are a few guys that have posted a pretty solid start in 2015. Possibly the most surprising of the bunch has been Martin Truex Jr who posted a 2nd place finish at Las Vegas last week. We documented Truex Jr in our article last week identifying the #78 team’s improvements and speed that has been shown in 2015. At this point, Truex has proved that it has not been a fluke but what about some of the other sleepers? How about Ryan Newman? You know the guy that finished 2nd in the points last year and nearly won the entire Championship without winning a race. Well, Newman pulled out a 3rd place finish last week at Las Vegas as well making it his 2nd straight top 10 finish. Newman is a guy that people do not talk about, but he has been very profitable in H2H matchups dating back to last season. Perhaps it is time to take notice. Lastly, let’s not sleep on Dale Earnhardt Jr. No not in terms of wins or running strong, but how about a championship? Dale Earnhardt Jr has backed up a very strong 2014 campaign with 3 straight top 5 finishes to start the season. Only Kevin Harvick has matched that feat. With Greg Ives now on board, I have a feeling the #88 car is going to have a ton of success before this year ends.
