GEICO 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday October 19th, 2014. 2:19PM EST
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: ESPN
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping
Tomorrow’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway promises to be the biggest race thus far in the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup. After tomorrow’s 500 mile event, the Chase field will be cut from 12 to 8 drivers with just 4 races remaining. Drivers like Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr are all in must win situations as the final race of the “Contender Round” approaches. The good news for those drivers in must win situations is that Talladega provides the opportunity for anyone to win Sunday’s event. However the bad news is just that, anyone can win tomorrow’s contender closing GEICO 500. Take a look as we go for the weekend sweep at Talladega following yesterday’s victory in the Truck Series and provide our GEICO 500 race picks!
Typically at restrictor plate racing it is every man for their self. Sure drivers may stay loyal with teammates throughout some stages of the race and help push teammates to the front. Still, that concept usually goes out the window when the laps wind down and drivers try to position their selves for a victory. However it will be interesting to see how teammates help each other during tomorrow’s GEICO 500 especially those teammates that are already locked into the Chase. Will Joey Logano try to help Brad Keselowski in his desperate need for a victory? Will Jeff Gordon, who is currently sitting strong in the points, try to help Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson during the late stages of Sunday’s race?
Perhaps another big question is how will some of the guys that are on the points bubble race? Will guys Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne ride around towards the back in attempt to miss the early wrecks before making one final hoorah in the end? Oh the questions and strategies that will play out on Sunday will be something to watch just in itself. However there is a strong possibility that a non-chase driver may steal the spotlight by the time the GEICO 500 concludes Sunday afternoon. Restrictor plate racing provides the ultimate opportunity for all drivers to score a victory and even those guys that normally do not compete for wins on a weekly basis. Just look back to Daytona where Aric Almirola found the magic potion to victory lane to secure an unlikely spot in the Chase. Tomorrow there will be plenty of talented drivers that will try to capitalize on their opportunity to notch a victory before the 2014 season concludes.
So who has the best shot to score that elusive victory? Well that may depend on who you ask. These races cannot be handicapped by practice speeds or qualifying results. Practice speeds mean nothing once you get 43 cars in a lead pack draft. Drivers will be looking for a car that handles well and has that uncanny type of speed to get to the front. However that is not to say these races are just a dart throwing contest. There are several drivers that have a knack for running well in restrictor plate style races and there is a ton of valuable odds to sink your teeth into. Just remember from a betting standpoint it is about getting the best return on your investment. These races should be low risk, high reward with the skill in your picks to win big.
As far as tomorrow’s race is concerned, we have our eyes on several drivers that appear poised to make a run at a victory in the GEICO 500. We have made our picks based on strategy and how we feel drivers may approach tomorrow’s race along with the simple basis of drivers that particularly run well in restrictor plate racing. Hopefully one of these drivers finishes at the front of the pack tomorrow and caps off a strong betting weekend for the guys at NASCARWagers.com. Take a look at our GEICO 500 race picks and reasons that we feel these drivers should run well below:
*Matt Kenseth (engine) and Brad Keselowski (alternator) will start at the back
GEICO 500 Race Picks
Brian Vickers +3100 (.5 unit): pole winner, 2006 Talladega winner, finished 4th at Talladega earlier this year and 2nd at Daytona in July
Kyle Busch +1800 (1 unit): only driver with 3 top 5’s in last 5 Talladega starts, under rated plate racer who will do what it takes to win, also JGR Toyota’s have been very strong at plate races for the last two years
Kyle Larson +2800 (.5 unit): 9th in only Talladega start earlier this year, most impressive driver throughout the Chase and he is not in the Chase
Greg Biffle +3000 (.5 unit): 3rd best average finish of drivers that have started last 5 Talladega races, led most laps in Aaron’s 499 before finishing 2nd
Brad Keselowski +1250 (1 unit): needs a win to survive and possibly nobody better to deliver in a must win situation, two time Talladega winner.
Clint Bowyer +2900 (.5 unit): 2nd best average finish among active drivers with more than 2 starts, two time Talladega winner including 3rd place finish in Aaron’s 499 this year
H2H & Props
Clint Bowyer +105 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -130 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
