Food City 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 19th, 1:13PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway is scheduled to drop the green flag at just after 1:00PM (EST) this afternoon. However, Mother Nature may have some different plans as rain is expected to be a factor for most of the day. The good news is that Bristol Motor Speedway has lights giving NASCAR the opportunity to run the race at night if the weather allows. Who would not want to see Bristol’s infamous night race come early this year? Whether we get the race in today or possibly Monday, we take this time to provide our thought’s and Food City 500 race picks as we prepare for 500 laps of exciting racing at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Once the racing gets started, it appears that several drivers may have an opportunity to challenge for the win. These Bristol races often involve a lot of strategy and track position will be very crucial throughout the day. During practice, it became very obvious that the racing groove would be literally inches off the outside wall which will make passing very difficult. Additionally tires have not shown much falloff so that will open the door for a lot of 2 tire and possibly gas only strategies on pit road during cautions which will undoubtedly keep the running ordered shuffled on restarts. Because of those conditions, this race could easily be won by a driver that does not have the fastest car. Instead this 500 lap battle will be about which team and driver can gain the track position to put their selves in position for a victory during the latter stages of the race.
As a result, it may be advantageous to have a slightly bigger roster this week and maybe even a couple of long shots to keep a strong ROI on your betting card. Currently there are six drivers with odds listed at 8-1 or less among the favorites. Kevin Harvick the overall favorite showed the best speed in practice by dominating the speed charts in terms of 10 lap averages. Everyone knows the type of dominance we have seen from the #4 car over the last year and a half. However Bristol has not been a good track for “Happy” and it could be easily argued that his odds are overrated due to his current form alone. In the last 12 Bristol races, Harvick has just 1 top 10 finish (6th in 2011). Still Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne were all the best cars throughout practices over the weekend. Kahne was among the most consistent fastest cars in terms of single lap speed and he won this race in 2013. Busch has 5 Bristol victories to his resume despite the last coming in 2006. Busch has been solid in that #41 car this year and he looked to have just as much speed as his teammate (Harvick) through both of Saturday’s practices.
Another group of favorites that are also listed as 8-1 or less in odds include both Team Penske cars and Matt Kenseth. Joey Logano won the night race at Bristol last fall and Brad Keselowski has two victories in 12 starts at Bristol. Both Team Penske drivers have been very strong this season and I would expect both cars to threaten for the victory again once the green flag drops. Kenseth is another driver that could easily threaten for the win as well. There has not been a lot of talk around the #20 car this week but odds makers have not been fooled. The 3 time winner was very solid in practice and more importantly Kenseth always puts his self in a good position for a victory at Bristol. In fact, Kenseth has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 8 Bristol races. Any of these 6 favorites could win today’s race and will have the luxury of starting inside the top 10 meaning they will have the chance to simply maintain their track position. 15 of the last 19 race winners have come from the top 12 starting spots so that trend cannot be ignored going into today’s race.
However, there are still plenty of threats that will come outside of the odds on favorites. 5 time winner Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson were solid in final practice. However, both drivers will have a lot of ground to make up after poor qualifying efforts. Considering the consistent improvement of Joe Gibbs Racing, you may want to keep an eye on Carl Edwards this week. The defending winner of the Food City 500 has 3 Bristol victories and appeared to be pretty happy with his #19 car following practices. Additionally teammates David Ragan and Denny Hamlin were decent in terms of single lap speed so it will be interesting to see if those drivers can stay strong on long green flag runs. On the other hand, Hamlin and Johnson may be two drivers I would actually consider fading this week. Despite being solid in terms of single lap speed, both drivers appeared unhappy with their rides on longer runs. Johnson was openly frustrated following practices and I think Hamlin may be a bit over valued due to his strong qualifying effort. Consider those facts when shopping around for H2H match-ups.
A couple of guys that you may want to keep on your radar from a long shot perspective or potentially just some value in H2H bets include both Chip Ganassi Racing drivers Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson. McMurray led 148 laps back in the night race last fall before finishing 8th. Larson posted finishes of 10th and 12th during his rookie season in 2014. Both cars looked decent through practices and should be given some type of consideration. McMurray has posted back to back top 10 finishes and had a runner-up finish earlier this year at Phoenix. The #1 car been really good in race match-ups this season and I think that could hold true again when the green flag finally waves in Thunder Valley.
Of course as a final note to bettors, remember that Bristol is like the short track restrictor plate race. One small mistake on pit road, flat tire, or other minor problem can result in a driver going several laps down to fall out of competition. These 15 second flat lap times can result in drivers finding trouble really quickly whether it is through their own doing or simply running into someone else’s problems. Therefore these races should still be approached with caution for those factors along with the known fact that the best car does not always win these races. Cheers!
Food City 500 Race Picks
Brad Keselowski +650 (1.5 units): newsletter pick, two-time Bristol winner, 5th in final practice, starting 2nd
Matt Kenseth +775 (1.25 units): 3 time Bristol winner with last in 2013, always seems to be a factor late in these races, starting on pole
Carl Edwards +1300 (1 unit): 3 time Bristol winner including defending Food City 500 winner, strongest combination of practices + qualifying effort so far this season, starting 3rd
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +18500 (.5 unit): early newsletter pick at incredible odds, highest average finishing position at Bristol, 2nd place in this race last year, starting 25th
Cover Parlay (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +750 wins Food City 500
Kyle Larson +105 over Denny Hamlin
To win:+840
H2H Match-ups and Prop Bets
Carl Edwards -125 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Jeff Gordon +110 over Jimmie Johnson (1 unit)
Jamie McMurray -135 over Ryan Newman (1 unit)
David Ragan +250 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
