Fontana: Betting Recap and Look Forward
NASCAR Betting and Handicapping Preview
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The first non-superspeedway race of the season did not disappoint for NASCAR’s Cup Series and Next Gen Car. Onlookers were treated with great racing throughout 400 miles of racing on Sunday and also saw several less popular names make noise towards the front of the field. Admittedly, it was a wild weekend from a Cup Series standpoint with so many single car accidents and continued tire issues that are making it difficult for teams to recover from flat tires. While some kinks need to be worked out for the Next Gen Car, I was actually encouraged by the racing that was on display in Fontana.
When the dust settled on 400 miles of racing at Auto Club Speedway, the current series champion in Kyle Larson was back in victory lane. Larson was the overall betting favorite (+500) going into Sunday’s race which means his win benefited the sportsbooks more than anyone. In many ways, it was a fitting end to one of the top drivers in the sport that conquered one of the most difficult driving conditions in recent memory. However, there were a lot of positives that bettors should capture in their notebooks specifically around the amount of underdogs that were in contention throughout the afternoon. Both Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones were among the class of the field throughout the 2nd half of the race which nobody saw coming. Furthermore, guys like Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, and Daniel Hemric all exceeded expectations from a performance standpoint. As a result, we will have to be open minded as we move forward because “parity” is the new norm for the Cup Series.
Betting Recap: Auto Club Speedway
I posted a tweet after Sunday’s WISE Power 400 that it was nice to get a few units back after a disastrous Saturday in the Xfinity Series. For Sunday’s WISE Power 400, we cleared 8 units thanks to hitting all of our match-ups and hitting a +400 prop bet with Stenhouse Jr. However, the damage to the weekend had already been suffered with Saturday’s Production Alliance Group 300. Admittedly, I made several bad picks fading Cole Custer. Custer had joined the #07 with SS Green Light Racing for a part-time role. Historically, this team has struggled tremendously in the Xfinity Series and I did not realize they had formed a partnership with Stewart-Haas Racing over the offseason.
Even if I had known that information ahead of time, I highly doubt I would have backed off of fading Custer based on the team’s lackluster history. Originally I thought I had found some vulnerabilities in the opening odds from Custer and that did not pan out. For my bettors and readers, that is my mistake. However, it is not uncommon for odds-makers to favor driver names over equipment when setting odds for the lower series events. I will just have to ensure more due diligence is completed next time before placing so many units against a single driver.
Handicapping Forward Thoughts
Despite the tough racing conditions on Sunday, I was extremely surprised to see the likes of Tyler Reddick, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, and others run so well. If you recall my preview, I had both Reddick and Jones listed as dark horses. However, I never expected either driver to run as well as they did, which was basically an entire race inside the Top 5. NASCAR designed the Next Gen Car to provoke greater parity in the Cup Series and the fruits of that labor were on full display at Auto Club Speedway.
The good news for bettors is that this growing parity in the sport can play into our favor if we use the information correctly. From a handicapping perspective, we should probably put less emphasis on historical trends especially at the high speed tracks where the major organizations have typically dominated. Of course, I am not provoking the idea of completely disregarding historical narratives but I believe it should be considered in moderation especially when you are looking at drivers that were previously competing with underfunded teams.
Aside from backing away from historical narratives to a certain degree, I also believe bettors will benefit from more surprise winners this season. Last year, we could bet on 2-3 drivers on a specific weekend and feel pretty confident in those picks. Oftentimes, those picks would be among the outright favorites because that is how predictable some of these races became. This year, we may have to start adding some deeper value options and also consider more prop bets into our weekly strategy. I found Ricky Stenhouse Jr at +400 at BOVADA this weekend for a top 10 prop bet. If you are looking for somewhere that has great props, give them a look.
While Stenhouse finished 10th and nearly lost the prop bet in the final laps, his value at 4 to 1 odds was a complete steal for a driver that spent all afternoon inside the top 10. Likewise, we could have had similar opportunities with guys like Reddick, Jones, Dillon, and Suarez. Of course, it may not be easy to predict which underdogs will prevail each week but if we get the type of value from odds-makers as we did at Fontana then we will have to consider more prop bets on a consistent basis going forward along with any other bets that bring plus value to our betting cards.
Personally, I still believe Tyler Reddick will benefit the most from the Next Gen Car. I have Reddick pegged as my breakout driver of the year and his talent was on full display at Auto Club Speedway. It is also worth noting that the Chevrolet teams appear to have really good speed from a horsepower standpoint which mainly derives from the engine department. Hendrick Motorsports has a prestigious history of producing some of the best horsepower in the sport and it appears that the teams with ECR engines can be included in that category at this time as well. Erik Jones, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, and Daniel Suarez who were the most impressive underdogs on Sunday were all powered by ECR engines and that is a narrative that few people will connect as we move forward.
