Firecracker 250 Race Picks
As the nation celebrates July 4th tomorrow, the NASCAR Nationwide Series will headline the evening festivities with some Daytona night racing in the Firecracker 250. Outside of the Firecracker 250 being one of the most anticipated races on the Nationwide Series schedule, there is a bunch of suspenseful storylines developing heading into Friday night’s exciting spectacle at Daytona. Among those storylines includes a fierce points battle between Elliot Sadler, Chase Elliot, and Regan Smith who are separated by just 8 points. All 3 drivers look to survive Daytona’s wildcard factor of restrictor plate racing and remain strongly in the Nationwide Series Championship running. Among an intruiging points battle, a host of big name drivers will take the green flag tomorrow night including Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Brian Scott, and even Darrell Wallace Jr. So who has what it takes to capture the checkered flag Friday night? Take a look at our thoughts along with our Firecracker 250 race picks
While most consider Daytona the ultimate wildcard for restrictor plate racing, Daytona has not been near as big of a wildcard as Talladega which is the only other restrictor plate track on NASCAR’s circuit. Talladega has produced several first time and big underdog winners. However, Daytona requires a bit more handling, car strength, and consistency to keep ground at the front of the pack unlike Talladega which is 5-6 racing lanes wide. As a result, Daytona has not produced as many surprise winners as fans and bettors might believe. In the last 17 Nationwide Series races at Daytona, only once has a true underdog won which was James Buescher in 2012. Only 1 other time, earlier this year with Regan Smith, has a Nationwide regular won at Daytona which means 15 of the last 17 Daytona race winners have been drivers from the Sprint Cup Series. That is quite a remarkable trend for a restrictor plate track that often gives off the impression that “anyone can win.”
Daytona definitely presents the opportunity for any driver to win but most often your best race cars and best drivers win these races in the Nationwide Series. As a result, we will be basing our race picks with those thoughts in mind. Back in February, Kyle Busch had an extremely dominate Monster Energy Toyota but got boxed in behind Regan Smith on a late restart and was not able to make a move for the win. Busch ran inside the top 5 more than any other driver. That same #54 car was equally strong at Talladega with Sam Hornish Jr behind the wheel. Obviously the risk may outweigh the reward when it comes to Busch tomorrow night considering he is the overall favorite to win the race at 3-1 odds. However, rest assured Busch will be in contention to win Friday night’s Firecracker 250 as well.
Of course if we compare the restrictor plate performances this season it’s hard to ignore either Regan Smith or Elliot Sadler. Sadler was very strong back in February and backed up that strong performance with a win at Talladega. Regan Smith edged out Brad Keselowski for the win at Daytona back in February and he has consistently been one of the best drivers in the Nationwide Series at plate racing over the last few years. Both guys have some value again tomorrow night and may be worth some consideration. If you are wanting to take a chance at a few more Nationwide Series regulars that could spoil the party Friday night, Ty Dillon and possibly Trevor Bayne are two additional drivers to consider. Bayne does a good job of positioning himself at the end of these races to be up front with the leaders. Meanwhile Dillon raced very well at Daytona earlier this year and perhaps more importantly those RCR cars have been really impressive to say the least.
Outside of a few of those potential longshots, history still points towards a Sprint Cup driver finding victory lane tomorrow night. Outside of Busch, the next biggest favorite is Joey Logano who will be driving the #22 Discount Tire Ford. Logano’s plate history in the Nationwide Series is very impressive. At Daytona in Nationwide Series competition, Logano holds a 8.4 average finishing position through 9 career starts and has a Daytona win back in 2011. Between Logano and Busch alone, the Sprint Cup winners trend has a great chance to continue. Some may like to take a chance with a Kyle Larson or Brian Scott tomorrow night. However neither driver has shown a ton of strength or consistency at the plate tracks. Perhaps David Ragan would be a nice longshot bet considering he is an extremely under rated plate racer but his odds will likely be included with the field bet which takes away from his value. Speaking of value, restrictor plate races are all about getting value out of your picks especially considering odds are better than normal. We have evaluated driver odds from a risk versus reward scenario and put together what we believe is a strong roster for tomorrow’s Firecracker 250 at Daytona International Speedway
Firecracker 250 Race Picks
Regan Smith +700(1 unit): Smith is a driver that you must have on your roster in this series on the plate races. It has been 11 years since a driver has swept both Daytona races in Nationwide Series competition. However, Smith has a great opportunity to pull off the Daytona sweep and match the feat accomplished by his car owner Dale Earnhardt Jr back in 2003.
Ty Dillon +1300(1 unit): Dillon has run really well at the restrictor plate tracks and RCR has some serious speed to contend with. If a underdog wins tonight, we like Dillon’s chances
Joey Logano +600(1 unit): Logano has been excellent at these Nationwide Series restrictor plate races and that #22 car is the best in the field along with the #54.
H2H Bets
Kyle Busch -150 over Joey Logano (1 unit)
Elliot Sadler -125 over Brian Scott (3 units)
