FedEx 400 Early Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
This week the Sprint Cup Series takes a stop at Dover International Speedway for the running of the FedEx 400. Last week drivers had to withstand mental and physical toughness through 600 miles at Charlotte Motor Speedway in NASCAR’s longest race, the Coca Cola 600. This week the demand will be bestowed more heavily on race cars and equipment considering the rigid concrete surface of Dover International Speedway. Take a look at our FedEx 400 early preview as we breakdown which drivers are ready to tackle 400 laps at the Monster Mile.
When it comes to handicapping drivers at Dover, there is Jimmie Johnson and then there is everyone else. Johnson has been incredible at Dover posting a 5.3 average over the last 10 races which includes 5 wins during that stretch. Yes that is right, Johnson has averaged a win in every two starts at Dover over the past 10 races. A simply remarkable feat despite the six-time champion’s already dominate reportoire. If you add Johnson’s win last week into the equation, it would be hard to expect anything less than a winning effort from the #48 team this weekend.
As far as the rest of the field is concerned, Jeff Gordon has the 2nd most wins among active drivers at 4 which is half of Johnson’s career total that currently stands at 8. However Gordon’s 4 victories come more than a decade ago with the last of those victories in 2001. Gordon has run well all season and overcame lingering back issues last week to finish 7th in the Coca Cola 600. All trends suggest Gordon should run strong again this weekend and we like to point out he holds some value in fantasy leagues this week. However if you are trying to pick a winner for this Sunday’s race, Gordon is in the category of “good but not good enough.”
The guy that will likely be Johnson’s biggest challenge this Sunday is Kevin Harvick who is arguably having the best year of any other driver in NASCAR. Harvick is 2nd in the points with 2 wins on the season. If not for some bad pitstops and mechanical troubles, Harvick could easily have 4-5 wins this season. For the 2nd week in a row last week, Harvick’s pit crew got the team behind in terms of track position. Harvick had the fastest car at the end of both the Sprint All-Star Race and the Coca Cola 600 but finished 2nd in both races as he was unable to overcome pit road issues in both instances.
The good news is that the #4 team has been superb everywhere this season. Harvick has never posted a victory at Dover through his 26 career starts and has only posted 3 Top 5 finishes. However, Harvick has posted the 2nd best average of all drivers in the last 10 starts at Dover which includes top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 6 starts. Despite the fact Harvick has yet to win at Dover, do not let that keep you from pulling the trigger on the #4 car this week. After all he has done pretty well at tracks he has not won at so far this year, Darlington ring a bell anyone?
If you looking for a few drivers that hold some value early in the week before we get to see the cars in action in practices, review setups, chassis selections, etc.. we would point towards Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. In fact, you could even throw in Clint Bowyer from a fantasy driver standpoint. Bowyer has posted 6 straight top 10 finishes at Dover despite the fact he has never won at the Monster Mile. Bowyer is one of those drivers that gets a lot of action from NASCAR bettors because he always has good odds and is perceivingly capable of winning at multiple venues. Few bettors realize that Bowyer has just 8 wins throughout his career in NASCAR. To put things in perspective, even NASCAR’s golden boy Dale Earnhardt Jr has more than twice as many wins as Bowyer at 20 throughout up and down career. Case in point, Bowyer is rarely a driver that handicappers should back with confidence despite some of his strong averages as is the case this week at Dover.
In regards to Busch and Logano, both drivers are very capable of winning this week. Busch especially seems to always stay towards the front at the Monster Mile. Busch has posted top 5 finishes (9 total) in exactly half of his 18 career starts. Busch is a two time Dover winner and a factor anytime the Sprint Cup Series visits a short track. Meanwhile Logano is quietly having the best year of his career. Maybe NASCAR fans wrote Logano off too quickly after Mark Martin labeled him the best thing since “sliced bread.” Logano failed to live up to those high expectations throughout his stint with Joe Gibbs Racing but things have turned the corner in year #2 at Penske Racing. This season Logano has already posted 2 wins (equal to his career win total at JGR) and 6 top 5 finishes. Believe it or not, Dover fits Logano’s driving style pretty well. If you consider how bad both Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick will be favored once odds are realeased, Logano may be the best early week pick on the board.
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