Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Saturday September 6th, 2014. 7:46PM Eastern
Where: Richmond International Raceway
TV: ABC
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Saturday night short track racing returns tomorrow night at the ever-exciting Richmond International Raceway when the green flag drops on the Federated Auto Parts 400. When the dust settles tomorrow night, the field for the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup will be set. Currently 14 drivers have already locked their selves into the Chase including the 13 different race winners this season and Matt Kenseth who has locked himself in on points alone. Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle, who currently sit 15th and 16th in the standings, look to make it in on points as well. However, there are a host of other winless drivers that enter Saturday night’s race with one last opportunity to score a victory and earn a spot into the Chase. As Richmond proved last year, anything can happen in the final race before the Chase. Take a look as we provide our thoughts on tomorrow’s race and post our Federated Auto Parts 400 race picks!
If you think the group of winless drivers are going to be going for broke to get a win tomorrow night then you are most certainly right. However the same can be said for the drivers that are already locked into the Chase. Once the points are reset for the Chase, bonus points are awarded for each victory which is a big boost towards the Sprint Cup Championship. For drivers that are already locked in the Chase, nothing will help their status except getting another victory. Therefore to keep things simple, nothing matters but winning tomorrow night for almost every driver in the field. Brad Keselowski won the pole for tomorrow night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 and will lead the field to the green. Along with Keselowski there will be a host of NASCAR’s biggest names starting up front with Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano also starting inside the top 5.
Gordon and Logano have been extremely dominate in recent weeks and appear ready to make a run at the 2014 Sprint Cup Championship. Logano won the April race at Richmond and has been strong in recent weeks making him a threat again tomorrow night. Between Harvick and Gordon, no other drivers have matched their speed on a consistent basis this season. Harvick dominated last week’s race at Atlanta before a late race incident following pit road issues ruined his night. Those issues on pit road have cost Harvick several opportunities to win this year but you still have to respect the speed the #4 car shows each week. Harvick and Gordon posted the best 10 lap averages in Friday’s two practice sessions. Both drivers have multiple Richmond wins on their resumes and are worthy favorites tomorrow night’s Federated Auto Parts 400.
Outside of your typical favorites, there are plenty of drivers with proven resumes at Richmond that bettors should consider tomorrow. Both Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer are drivers that need a win to secure a spot in the Chase. Bowyer has two victories at Richmond while Smoke has visited victory lane 3 times at Richmond. Neither driver showed much in practice but both drivers know how to find the front of the field at the ¾ mile speedway. Bowyer may be the only driver currently outside the top 16 along with Kyle Larson that appears capable of pulling off a surprise and much needed victory tomorrow. A few other drivers that have proven Richmond resumes include both Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Busch leads all active drivers with 4 victories and is in the middle of a pretty bad slump. Busch has finished outside the top 35 in 4 of his last 5 races and has not had a strong finish since the Brickyard. However, Richmond is still a place where Rowdy can end his slump if you consider the sheer fact that he has finished in the top 5 in 13 of his 19 starts at Richmond throughout his career.
Earnhardt Jr is looking to end NASCAR’s “regular season” just as strong as he started it with his win in the Daytona 500. With 3 victories this season, Junior will get the chance to go for win #4 at one of his best tracks. Junior has 3 Richmond victories to his credit and posted the 2nd fastest 10 lap average in practice 1 to lift his stock. A few other guys with stocks on the rise include both Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin who we pointed out in our opening odds newsletter preview. Both drivers qualified towards the front and have been solid in practices. Edwards has been the most impressive by finishing 5th in practice 1 and then topping the charts as the fastest car in final practice. From an opening odds perspective, Edwards may have had more value than any other driver at over 20-1 odds.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +1300 (1.5 units): 2 time Richmond winner including 7 top 5’s in 16 starts, been running really well in recent weeks. If pit crew keeps picking up 3-4 spots with each trip down pit road, should be at the front at the end
Carl Edwards +2500 (1 unit): Defending Federated Auto Parts 400 winner, 5th in practice 1, fastest in final practice, starting 10th
Jeff Gordon +700 (1 unit): 2 time Richmond winner, has a lot of momentum, posted best 10 lap average in practice 1, starting 2nd.
Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit): April Richmond winner, finished top 6 in 5 of last 6 races, 3rd in practice 1, and starting 5th
Clint Bowyer +1650 (.5 unit): 2 time Richmond winner, strong in both practices, has to win to get into the Chase, starting 6th
H2H Matchups and Props
Dale Earnhardt Jr -140 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -145 over Kurt Busch (3 units)
Kyle Busch -115 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Jeff Gordon +100 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
