Early NASCAR 2016 Good Sam 500k Odds Preview
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Fantasy Preview
Sunday March 13th, 2:45PM (EST) at Phoenix International Racewaysa
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will go racing in the Valley of the Sun this Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway with the running of the Good Sam 500k. This Sunday’s trip to Phoenix will be the first race of the year on a track that is less than 1.5 miles in length. However, Phoenix is not a short track which is often a common misconception. The 1 mile tri-oval has the appearance of a short track but races like a speedway with two very different corners and one of the wildest backstretches in auto racing which always provides great racing. Today we take the time to take a peek at our early 2016 Good Sam 500k betting odds preview as we prepare for a fun weekend of racing.
Obviously the guy everyone is chasing this week is Kevin Harvick. If you happen to be wondering why, then chances are you have very little knowledge of Harvick’s history at Phoenix. “Happy” may be the best driver to ever suit up at Phoenix in the Sprint Cup Series with 7 total victories including 4 of the last 5. Harvick has actually led 75% of the laps over the last 4 races at Phoenix despite finishing 2nd to Dale Earnhardt Jr last fall in a weather shortened race. Still, Harvick has maintained a near 150 average driver rating over the last 4 races so I would not suggest leaving him off your fantasy roster. However due to Harvick’s success at Phoenix, his odds are rather horrid.
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Instead of betting Harvick at such low odds, the better idea would be to find the value in some of his competitors and hope his odds get better later in the week. One driver I like with some early value is Joey Logano at +850. I know that is not the greatest value for an early week driver but I also think that is the best number that you will see the #22 at for the rest of the week. Logano and all the Penske Racing affiliated cars impressed me last week at Las Vegas. After lacking some speed and struggling through practices, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano rebounded for a 1-2 finish. Going into Sunday’s race both Keselowski and Logano have some momentum at a track where they have run well in recent races. Logano has finished 9th or better in his last 5 starts and tied a career best 3rd place showing here last fall. I still think this #22 team is in top form and it is only a matter of time before they score their first win of the season.
If you do not like the Penske Racing cars, I would consider a strong look at the Hendrick Motorsports brigade surrounding the #48 and #88 shop. Jimmie Johnson is the 2nd biggest favorite behind Harvick at just over 6-1 odds and last year’s winner Dale Earnhardt Jr is currently listed at 13-1. Both drivers have some upside with the way the Hendrick cars have been running and their solid Phoenix resumes. Surprisingly Johnson (4), Earnhardt (3), and Carl Edwards (2) are the only drivers with multiple Phoenix wins outside of Harvick. Therefore, I really like both driver’s potential to have a big race on Sunday.
Looking on back through the field, I feel like the opportunity for a long shot to cash a winning ticket this weekend is pretty slim. The few drivers that have the knack for getting around Phoenix typically dominate the front of the field in these races which lessens the opportunity for an upset. However, I would still consider taking a look at both Chase Elliot and Kasey Kahne. Kahne has been really good at Phoenix over the years and has several quality finishes over the last 9 races including a win in 2011. I already mentioned that I like the Hendrick Motorsports cars and their potential heading into this Sunday’s race. Therefore, Kahne would be a good early week sleeper for a driver that has had success at this track in the past.
On the other hand, I feel like Elliot could be a good sleeper despite not having any history at the track. Elliot has proved over the last two weeks that he can hang out inside the top 10 and run with the best drivers in the sport. It is hard to not be impressed with the job the rookie has done in the #24 car and let’s give some credit to the #24 team for putting fast race cars on the track each week. I feel like everything is working for those #24 guys right now and Elliot is going to be a factor late in one of these races real soon if they keep performing at such an impressive level. It is probably a little too soon to jump on the #24 as chances are his odds will only get better. However, I think he is a driver to watch as the week progresses from a potential long shot category.
