Duck Commander 500 Race Picks

Duck Commander 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday April 6th, 2014. 3:16PM Eastern
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service

So far through 2014, the Sprint Cup Series has been nearly unpredictable with 6 different race winners through the opening 6 races. NASCAR has experienced one of its most competitive starts in the modern era and shows no signs of slowing down. One of the only common themes thus far through 2014 has been tire issues. Tire issues have plagued both of the past two races from the short track of Martinsville to the big two mile Auto Club Speedway in Fontana.

After two practices for this week’s race at Texas Motor Speedway, teams are once again fearful that tire issues may be prevalent again this Sunday. GoodYear introduced their multi-zone tread technology, that debuted in 2013 at Kansas and Atlanta, for the first time at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. While the new tire compound may not resolve the tire issues entirely, we believe it may give us a good insight to a few drivers that have raced well on this compound in the past. Take a look at our insight that leads us to our Duck Commander 500 Race Picks:

GoodYear raced the multi-zone tread technology a few times in 2013 at both Kansas races and at Atlanta. Only a handful of drivers seemed to get a grip of the new tire formula that will be in play for this Sunday’s Duck Commander 500. Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and even Martin Truex Jr ran consistently strong in all of those races. However, only two of those guys are with the same team and crew chief from last year. Both Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr have switched teams this year which means different data, notes, and setups. The elder Busch won last week and appears to have a bit of momentum on his side. Kurt topped the charts in the final practice session with one of the fastest laps of the weekend at 194.63mph.

The younger Busch, little brother Kyle, has been stout at the 1.5 mile tracks over the past year and has visited victory lane before at Texas. Kyle also scored a victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway a few weeks ago which is the only other 1.5 mile track the Sprint Cup Series has visited thus far. Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Matt Kenseth dominated every 1.5 mile track in 2013 and has the best average finish (8.30) among all active drivers at Texas. However Kenseth will start towards the back in the 26th position after a poor qualifying run. Joe Gibbs Racing as a team has not looked particularly strong this weekend and it will be interesting to see if they make the right changes to their cars for raceday.

A guy that we have had our eyes on this week is Joey Logano. Logano has been extremely fast all season and has a historically strong resume at the 1.5 mile tracks. This #22 team seems to have a grip on the camber balance which is causing a lot of the tires issues and he looked good on long runs in practice. A few other guys that seem to always find the front at Texas include Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson. Biffle has had a horrible start to the 2014 season but unloaded a fast ride for Rousch-Fenway Racing. Biffle is one of few drivers with multiple Texas wins on their resume and will roll off on the outside pole position alongside Tony Stewart.

‘Smoke’ is another guy that has not had the greatest 2014 start but has posted a couple of Top 5’s in the past few races. Stewart also has crew chief Chad Johnston in his corner. Johnston was the crew chief of Martin Truex Jr in 2013. As we mentioned before, Truex Jr excelled on this specific tire compound in 2013. Despite the slow start, Stewart seems to have a lot of things going for him heading into Sunday’s race.

Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are two of the favorites for Sunday’s race. Harvick qualified in the 3rd position and has been fast all weekend. ‘Happy’ posted the fastest 10 lap average in the final practice session and owns the 4th best average finish among active drivers at Texas. ‘Six-Time’ will start back in the 16th position and has been equally strong throughout the weekend. Johnson and Carl Edwards lead all active drivers with 3 wins each at Texas Motor Speedway. Both drivers appear to be in position to challenge again this weekend.

Duck Commander 500 Race Picks

Carl Edwards +2000: Edwards was our newsletter pick early in the week. Cousin Carl opened at generous 20-1 odds. Edwards was 2nd in the final practice and is tied with Johnson for the most wins (3) among active drivers at TMS.

Jimmie Johnson +650 (1.5 units): Johnson’s odds got better after a mediocre qualifying run. Six-Time has 3 wins at Texas and will be piloting the same chassis that he dominated at TMS back in November when the #48 car led 255 of the 334 scheduled laps while scoring the victory.

Joey Logano +1600: Been fast everywhere this season. Two top 5 finishes in both Texas races in 2013.

Greg Biffle +1200: The “Biff” has been superb at Texas in recent years including two top 5 finishes in his last 4 starts with 1 trip to victory lane. One of the #16 team’s best tracks and car has been very fast since unloading on Friday.

Paul Menard +7000 (.5 unit): At 70-1 odds, Menard is worth the gamble. Strong in both practice sessions. Driving chassis that finished 3rd at Las Vegas.

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