For the first time in several weeks, NASCAR’s Gander Outdoors Truck Series, Xfinity Series, and Monster Energy Cup Series will all be in action on the same weekend as we roll into the Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway. Traditionally Dover has been a solid track for handicappers and we are looking forward to 3 separate opportunities to cash winning tickets. Earlier today, the entry list for each race was announced and surprisingly there were not any Cup Series drivers in the lower series’ events. Therefore, I believe this will be an opportunistic weekend and I wanted to share some early thoughts for the weekend ahead at Dover!
Jegs 200 Preview
The Gander Outdoors Truck Series returns to action for the first time since March this weekend with the running of the Jegs 200 on Friday afternoon. At first glance, this appears to be the perfect opportunity for Johnny Sauter to score his first win of the season. Sauter has won each of the last two Truck Series races at Dover. In last year’s Jegs 200, Sauter dominated the event leading 137 of 210 laps in route to victory. Surely, Sauter will be the overall favorite this weekend and will likely garnish some early betting tickets.
However, I am not completely convinced that the #13 team at Thorsport Racing is best suited for a victory this weekend. For whatever reason, Sauter’s new team has not shown the speed we perhaps expected going into the season. While they have still performed relatively well, the #13 has only posted 1 performance where they were truly the best among the Truck Series regulars and that was back at Atlanta in a 2nd place finish behind Kyle Busch. Instead, I think we should be keeping our focus pinned towards the likes of Brett Moffitt and Brandon Jones who will be getting a great opportunity as he steps down from the Xfinity Series with Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Moffitt will be driving for the same team, in GMS Racing, that won the last two races with Johnny Sauter behind the wheel. Most bettors have short memories but Moffitt was the leading favorite to win last year’s Jegs 200 after posting dominate laps in practices. Instead, Moffitt was caught up in an accident on lap 2 when he ran into a spinning Stewart Friesen which ruined his afternoon. So with those thoughts resurfaced, I truly expect Moffitt to be the guy to target early this week if odds are reasonable.
Allied Steel Buildings 300 Preview
So far this year, the Xfinity Series has been brutal against bettors. After Michael Annett shocked everyone at Daytona, the overall favorites have won most often. Kyle Busch earned 3 victories, Cole Custer and Christopher Bell both earned a pair of victories at low odds, and then last week Tyler Reddick scored his first victory of the season as one of the leading favorites at Talladega. I would love to know if there is anyone in America that is in the green this season from betting these Xfinity Series races and actually has the paperwork to prove it. Unfortunately it has simply been tough and I am not sure if that is going to change anytime soon.
While 2018 was the year of the Big 3 in the Cup Series, this year’s Xfinity Series campaign is producing their version of the Big 3 between Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick. All 3 of those drivers have emerged as the best in the field on a near weekly basis especially when a guy named Kyle Busch is not on the entry list. In last year’s fall race at Dover, Bell and Custer dominated the event leading a combined 148 of 200 laps in route to a 1-2 finish. As a result, the #20 and #00 will likely be the guys to beat once again on Saturday.
Judging by the entry list, there are not many names that jump off the page as formidable contenders. Surely Tyler Reddick will run well judging by the #2 team’s performance this year. Reddick also posted a top 5 finish in this race one year ago. For the younger guys like Justin Haley, Noah Gragson, John Hunter Nemechek, and Chase Briscoe, I am just not sure if any of those guys have the stock car experience to challenge this weekend. Dover typically favors towards experience because it is an extremely fast 1 mile track that creates some challenges behind the wheel.
The only guy that I will have on my radar prior to practices is the #7 of Justin Allgaier. It’s about time for the #7 team to put together a full race and finished the job. Allgaier arguably had the fastest car in the field in back to back weeks at Bristol and Richmond yet failed to capitalize. When you look at the JR. Motorsports veteran’s resume, he has been excellent at Dover with top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 starts including a win in the 2018 Jegs 200. Hopefully, Allgaier’s odds will have some early value because I definitely think he will be strong when the green flag waves on Saturday.
Gander RV 400 Preview
For Sunday’s main event in the Cup Series’ Gander RV 400, there are numerous drivers that have the potential to end their race with a trip to victory lane. Despite my “no bet” policy for Jimmie Johnson, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Dover has been a phenomenal track for Mr. Seven Time. In 34 career starts, Johnson has 11 wins, 17 Top 5 finishes, and more than 3,000 laps led. If there were a track where Johnson could dial back the hands in time, Dover could be the magical place. Obviously, I don’t think that is something that we could feel confidence betting towards considering the #48 team’s performance this year but it is something to think about.
In a more realistic viewpoint, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Kevin Harvick will likely be the favorites to monitor this weekend. It’s somewhat surprising that I did not mention a Team Penske driver on that short list given their success in 2019 but statistically this has not been a good track for Team Penske. Instead, Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick likely take a jump towards the top targets this week. Truex has always been very solid at Dover which he considers one of his hometracks. After earning the first win of his career at Dover in 2007, Truex has amassed top 5 finishes in 4 of his last 5 Dover starts including a victory in the 2016 fall race. When you look at the loop data over the last 5 races, Truex leads all drivers with an average driver rating of 120.4 by a relatively wide margin. Kevin Harvick is 2nd on that list in terms of loop data and also sports the title of the defending winner of the Gander RV 400. In his last 5 starts at Dover, Harvick has posted the most laps led (487) and the most fastest laps (300).
The only thing that worries me about Harvick and Truex is that they are not necessarily performing at their “best.” Harvick has been running well but not good enough to strongly challenge for victories. Truex scored a victory at Richmond by holding off Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano in the closing laps. If not for the tire wear factor in that race, I highly doubt Truex would have been able to keep that car upfront. Truex and the #19 team continue to shine on the tracks with heavy tire wear but Dover does not necessarily fall into that category. So while these “stats” seem to favor the #19 and the #4 going into the weekend, I think those options remain risky.
Instead from an early view, I will be keeping eyes on the likes of Chase Elliott and Clint Bowyer from an early odds perspective. Elliott has simply been phenomenal at Dover with finishes of 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 12th, and 1st in his 6 career starts. Elliott has run 97.1% of his laps in the top 15 over the last 5 races at Dover which is the best of any driver and I believe this team has enough speed in their 1 mile program to get the job done again. Fresh off of last week’s victory at Talladega, Elliott will have the opportunity to stay hot. For Bowyer, I feel like his stock will be overlooked this week after a pair of extremely solid performances at Dover in 2018. Bowyer finished 2nd to Kevin Harvick in the spring and was inside the top 5 in the fall race before blowing a tire with less than 10 laps to go. Therefore, I feel like this will be another great opportunity for the #14 team who typically flies under the radar ahead of these races.
From an odds perspective, Elliott’s odds will surely be diluted based off last year’s victory combined with last week’s victory at Talladega. However, I feel like Bowyer will be among a group of guys that entails the likes of Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola that will provide just enough value for consideration. Both Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola were in position to win the fall race last year at Dover before a late-race caution shuffled things up. Therefore, keep your eyes on opening odds surrounding those drivers as well. As always these opinions will likely change to some degree after cars unload and we get a chance to see the “speed” off the hauler. So be sure to check back after practices and we have an opportunity to analyze practice data to compile our official race picks for the 2019 Gander RV 400.
