Daytona 500 Preview and Race Picks

Daytona 500 Preview and Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 22nd, 1:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Super Bowl of Motorsports has arrived and today the best drivers in the world will battle for the grandest prize in racing in the 57th running of the Daytona 500. The green flag is scheduled to wave at 1:30pm Eastern Time and then 200 laps will decide the winner of the Great American Race. Throughout Budweiser Speedweeks, there have been several major story lines that have helped build the drama towards this year’s Daytona 500 such as NASCAR legend Jeff Gordon announcing he will retire at the end of 2015. However over the last 48 hours, even more story lines have emerged that will undoubtedly shake things up in Daytona. Take a look as we discuss the major stories surrounding the Busch brothers and provide our Daytona 500 preview and race picks.

On Friday, NASCAR announced that Kurt Busch, driver of the #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet, is suspended indefinitely following a court ruling that found Busch guilty of a domestic violence incident that occurred last September at Dover International Speedway. While the ruling surprised some and did not surprise others, the timing of the ruling could not have come at a worse time for Busch as he was preparing for the biggest race of the year. Instead of competing for a Daytona 500 trophy, Busch will be at home. If that news was not shocking enough, the events on Saturday involving younger brother Kyle Busch became even more tragic.

The younger Busch was running 5th in the Alert Today Florida 300 in the Xfinity Series at Daytona before a violent accident. Busch who is among the most frequent racers in NASCAR through all 3 touring series, spun towards the inside retaining wall after making contact with the back of Erik Jones’ #20 race car. Busch hit the wall head on at just under 100mph at a portion of the track that does not contain NASCAR’s safer barrier technology. NASCAR’s safer barriers infamously enriched the safety of the sport following several racing related deaths caused a need for change more than a decade ago. Instead, Busch’s violent accident left the Sprint Cup star with a compound fracture in his right leg and a fracture on his left foot. Busch will reportedly need several weeks to months of recovery time which will nearly ruin his 2015 campaign. NASCAR announced that the portion of the track where Busch wrecked will be upgraded with the safer barriers before the start of today’s race but one has to ask why now? As a result, today’s Daytona 500 will shockingly not have either of the Busch brothers on the starting grid when the green flag waves.

One thing that is for certain, there will be plenty to talk about before the racing action starts today in pre-race ceremonies. Of course, here at NASCARWagers we are typically more focused on predicting what will happen after the green flag waves. Still as NASCAR fans, it is hard to not mention the magnitude of the events leading up to the biggest race of the season at the high banks of Daytona International. As for the racing action, luckily we have seen a lot of racing throughout Budweiser Speedweeks. The problem is that it is still Daytona and it is still restrictor plate racing. We have witnessed surprise winners in each of the last two days with Tyler Reddick winning the Truck race on Friday and Ryan Reed winning yesterday’s Xfinity Series race.

The distinctiveness of Daytona is like no other in NASCAR. The infamous 2.5 mile speedway requires speed, handling, a keen understanding of the draft, and a lot of luck. The best car does not always win these races. Drivers are always on edge as big multi-car wrecks are inevitable. Drivers spend about 3 hours trying to stay out of trouble, trying to position their selves for the end of the race, and then hoping they make the right moves to put their car out front when it matters most. In reality, racing at Daytona is like going face to face with a lion. You know the lion can knock you out at any moment or the pack of lions behind him can swallow you in the blink of an eye. However if you can just survive and make the correct choices to put yourself in position ahead of the pack, then perhaps when it is all said and done then you can be crowned king of the jungle.

Today 43 drivers will have that exact opportunity. A chance to be crowned the title of “Daytona 500 Champion” and instantly immortalized in NASCAR history. So who do we think will win today’s super race? The answer is not exactly simple. Perhaps it is better to list the drivers that should contend and of course take some chances on a few other drivers simply from an odds perspective. However at this point, Dale Earnhardt Jr is the man to beat. Period.

As stated previously, the best car does not always win these races but what happens when the best car meets the best restrictor plate driver in the business? We will find out soon enough. Junior is the reigning Daytona 500 winner and he will seek his 3rd overall 500 trophy later this afternoon. Earnhardt had a solid performance in last week’s Sprint Unlimited but he has been dominantly strong in his Daytona 500 car this week. Earnhardt even said earlier in the week that he believed he had the fastest car at Speedweeks and then backed up the notion with a win in the first Budweiser Duel race on Thursday. This pack style restrictor plate racing has been Earnhardt’s biggest strength throughout his career in the series and he should be one tough customer when the green flag flies today.

Outside of Junior, there are a few other big name drivers that I would put at the top of my list. Starting with Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Gordon won the pole for the Daytona 500 and has appeared very solid in terms of speed. Could the 3-time Daytona 500 Champion ride out victories into the sunset in his last start in the Great American Race? How about teammate Jimmie Johnson who won the 2nd Budweiser Duel on Thursday? Hendrick Motorsports cars in general have been stout throughout the week and if they stay out of trouble they should be at the front of the pack when it is time to decide a winner. Outside of Hendrick cars, your best bets will probably be Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick. Kenseth has been really impressive throughout Speedweeks following last Saturday’s victory in the Sprint Unlimited. Keselowski is just too good to count out despite a sub par history at Daytona. Harvick, the reigning series champion, has a knack for finding the front at Daytona just at the right moment and he should be a force again in 2015.

If you are looking for a few surprise names to throw in the hat, there are several worth taking into consideration. Clint Bowyer has been solid since wrecking his primary car in qualifying last Sunday. Bowyer finished 4th in the 1st duel race on Thursday and has a pretty solid restrictor plate resume. Based on Speedweeks strength alone, Martin Truex Jr has shown he has the car to mix it up with the leaders. As a semi long shot, Truex may have as much “value” as any other driver in the event. Guys like Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, and Joey Logano deserve a look as well.

Logano is coming off the best season of his career and appears to be coming into form in the #22 at Team Penske. Biffle has had several close encounters with a Daytona 500 victory in recent years and surprised some folks with a 3rd place finish in his #16 Roush-Fenway Ortho Ford. Lastly, I will also have my eyes on Smoke as he tries to turn the corner in 2015 and resurrect his prominent Cup Series status. Stewart has been plagued by injury issues over the last two seasons and the sprint car accident that claimed the life of Kevin Ward Jr loomed over his entire 2014 campaign. It was just a little more than 3 years ago that Stewart claimed his 3rd championship in 2011 and was on top of the racing world. We look to see if Smoke can return to form in 2015. As for Daytona, Stewart has never won the Daytona 500 but has 4 victories in the Coke Zero 400 that runs in July at Daytona. What a story it would be if Stewart could rebound and finally score a victory in the Daytona 500 later this afternoon.

Unofficial Daytona 500 Race Picks

Matt Kenseth/Jimmie Johnson +385 wins Daytona 500

Martin Truex Jr +115 over Kasey Kahne
To win: +942