Cup Series Progress Report following Vegas
NASCAR Cup Series Betting and Handicapping Preview
Earlier today, Kyle Larson earned his 1st Cup Series victory with Hendrick Motorsports by winning the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The victory was Larson’s first win since Dover in October of 2019 and it was a tad surprising because it was also his first victory on a 1.5 mile speedway. Surprise victories have been a common theme through the first 4 races of the season with the likes of Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Larson cashing winning tickets.
The increase in parity among NASCAR’s top division should help provide better betting odds and opportunities for bettors moving forward. Following a 2020 season where the overall favorites were winning every week, it has definitely been a nice change to the status quo. As we continue to move forward in the 2021 Cup Series campaign, I wanted to take a moment to analyze some noteworthy observations from the first 4 races of the season. Every new season of racing brings changes to the former norms and bettors should be quick to adjust to newer trends stemming from performance. Therefore, I thought this would be a good opportunity to call out a few of the most important observations from the opening 4 races of the year that could impact our betting philosophy in the weeks ahead!
Positive Progress Reports
Hendrick Motorsports:
If any organization deserves the “Most Improved” award it is the guys from Hendrick Motorsports following victories in each of the last two weeks. William Byron delivered an unforeseen dominant victory at Homestead and Kyle Larson led over 100 laps en route to today’s victory in Vegas. As an entire group, the Hendrick Motorsports cars have been extremely strong. Despite both Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott having issues earlier today, both cars were extremely fast which proves they have found some speed on the intermediate tracks. William Byron recorded a quality 8th place finish on the heels of last week’s win which appears to prove that the #24 team has taken a big step forward in 2021.
Personally, Byron probably deserves a lot of betting attention over the next few weeks in terms of H2H bets. New crew chief Rudy Fugle has the #24 team performing well above Byron’s prior averages and that is something bettors should lock into their notes. Ultimately, we have to give credit to the entire organization for producing better speed thus far in 2021. If you recall, Larson was attempting a pass to chase down the leader at the Daytona road course so Hendrick Motorsports drivers have been in the thick of the hunt for 3 straight weeks. Larson is obviously going to shine in better equipment but I don’t think we expected the success to come so soon. While I may be slightly surprised that the reigning champion in Chase Elliott has mildly struggled, rest assured that Hendrick is trending in the right direction.
Joe Gibbs Racing:
Before these last two races, I really thought the Ford teams would shine on the 1.5 mile layouts especially at Vegas which is more aerodynamically dependent. Instead, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars appear to be the best organization in overall speed. In today’s Pennzoil 400, JGR cars produced 4 of the top 7 positions. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex have shown top 5 speed in each of the last 3 weeks. Christopher Bell has already delivered a surprise victory at Daytona’s road course and despite a subpar performance at Homestead; the #20 car was undeniably fast in Vegas this afternoon.
Even Kyle Busch who looked horrible at Homestead a week ago turned things around with a 3rd place finish this afternoon. I had Busch on my fade list going into Sunday’s event based on how awful the #18 team performed at Homestead and that cost me from having a perfect card today in H2H match-ups because I covered the other 3 match-ups beautifully. Busch was the fastest car on the track in the closing laps and that is a very promising sign for the #18 team that have a lot of different personnel in 2021. Keep in mind, the JGR cars have not been perfect by any stretch of the imagination. All of their drivers have complained of handling issues in the last few weeks. The good news is that the cars are really fast and they just need some time to work out the handling issues.
Michael McDowell:
I pointed out the fact Michael McDowell has been having a hell of a season through the opening few weeks in my preview for the Pennzoil 400 and it is worth calling out again. McDowell obviously secured his spot in the chase with his victory in the Daytona 500. However, McDowell also ranks 9th in outright points earned this season which is more than Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman among the more popular names. Admittedly, I doubt McDowell can keep this pace but he recorded another solid 17th place finish earlier today. Before the race, McDowell was being paired against talents like Daniel Suarez and other bottom-tier drivers based solely off historical data. If odds-makers continue to make those mistakes, McDowell could become an unforeseen betting target moving forward.
Negative Progress Reports
Stewart-Haas Racing:
I am literally shocked at how “bad” Stewart-Haas Racing cars have performed thus far this season especially after today’s Pennzoil 400. SHR did not have a single driver in the top 15 this afternoon and that was primarily not a result of crashes or mechanical mishaps. Simply put, Stewart-Haas Racing cars are struggling mightily in the realm of performance. Kevin Harvick has recorded a pair of top 5 finishes (Daytona/Homestead) but he is not challenging for wins on a weekly basis like we have grown to expect from the #4 team. Meanwhile, the rest of SHR has failed to record a single top 10 finish through the opening 4 races of the season. I don’t have any reasoning behind the performance decline because we have seen others from the Ford camp run fairly well. Ultimately, I am placing the blame on the organization as I don’t see any other way to explain their performance earlier today. Surely, Harvick will be the overall favorite at Phoenix next week but SHR’s performance even puts that notion in jeopardy.
Bubba Wallace:
I am putting Bubba Wallace on this list because I cannot leave him off. Before the year began, I stated multiple times that I expect Wallace to take a big step forward in 2021 with newly formed 23XI Racing which uses the JGR technical alliance. Instead, it has been nothing but growing pains since the start of the season. Since Wallace’s 17th place finish in the Daytona 500, he has failed to crack the top 20 in the last 3 races which is basically on par with his performance in 2020 at Richard Petty Motorsports. The good news is that the team has experienced a few mechanical issues in each of the last two weeks which has impacted performance. Earlier today, the #23 team had a power steering pump failure which severely hurt their day. I am still expecting better things from Wallace in 2021 but obviously this team has a way to go.
Chase Elliott:
I debated who deserved the final negative progress report and while I am a fan of Chase Elliott, I believe he deserves to be called out for his first 4 races. While Hendrick Motorsports has shined in the last few weeks, Elliott has done the opposite. The #9 team let things get away from them after dominating the earlier stages at Daytona’s road course, then posted a underwhelming performance at Homestead while some of the teammates from Hendrick were strong, and then posted another forgettable performance today at Vegas. Elliott opened the show looking good again with a 2nd place result in stage 1 but faded throughout the remainder of the race until he was involved in a solo accident after losing control coming out of turn 2. Either way you slice the performances, the former champion has not posted the results we expect especially considering how strong the Hendrick Motorsports cars have been as an organization. Another important fact that is worth mentioning, Elliott has now failed to crack the top 10 in 8 of the last 9 races on 1.5 mile speedways. For a weekly betting favorite, that is worthy of fade consideration alone until we see some changes.
