Coke Zero 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Saturday July 5th, 2014. 7:50PM Eastern
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: TNT
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
One of the most anticipated races of the year will get underway tomorrow night when the Sprint Cup Series goes night racing at Daytona International Speedway in the Coke Zero 400. This restrictor plate race under the lights at Daytona is a fan favorite because it has provided exciting racing and excellent finishes over the last few years. From Dale Earnhardt Jr’s emotional win back in 2001 after the passing of his father Dale Earnhardt to David Ragan’s big upset win in 2011. The Coke Zero 400 has provided some of NASCAR’s biggest moments and we cannot wait to see what storylines develop tomorrow night. Take a look at our preview along with our Coke Zero 400 race picks:
As we have said all week, Daytona provides the opportunity for several drivers to score their first win of 2014 and lock in their spot in the Chase. For drivers like Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, and Kasey Kahne, time is running out to capture that first victory which is the case for several other race teams as well. If tomorrow’s event comes down to late race strategy which is often the case in the Coke Zero 400, you have to believe that those drivers and race teams will roll the dice in effort to put their cars into position for a victory. At this point in the season points hold very little weight towards making the Chase, but a win could guarantee their tickets towards competing for the 2014 Sprint Cup Championship.
So how do we decide which drivers to take for tomorrow night’s Coke Zero 400? Well you cannot exactly take a driver that simply needs a win just for that principal alone. However if you find some guys that excel at restrictor plate racing that also need a win, now that is a much better combination. A few drivers we really like for tomorrow night’s race include guys like Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Ryan Newman. Newman was our Newsletter pick at 33-1 odds which is an ultimate value bet considering his recent history at Daytona. Biffle is another guy that seems to find the front at Daytona that is receiving favorable odds. In fact the case could be made, that no other team in NASCAR needs a win more desperately than that #16 team from Roush-Fenway Racing.
Matt Kenseth is another driver that we felt had some value this week for the simple reasons of how strong the #20 team has been running and Joe Gibbs Racing’s performance at the restrictor plate tracks thus far in 2014. However before anyone loads up their betting card on JGR drivers, we would like to point out that Toyota drivers have visited victory lane just once in their history at Daytona which was with Kyle Busch back in 2008. In fact if we look at manufacturer trends, Chevrolet drivers have owned Daytona races over the past several years. Chevrolet drivers have won 7 of the last 10 races at Daytona and 7 of the last 10 Coke Zero 400’s. Whether that trend is a display of Chevrolet restrictor plate packages of more of a courtesy towards the drivers from the Chevrolet camp, either way it is a pretty resounding trend.
As far as the Chevrolet camp is concerned, it’s hard to ignore drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jimmie Johnson, and Tony Stewart anytime Daytona rolls around. Stewart leads all drivers with 4 victories in the Coke Zero 400. Johnson is currently the only driver in NASCAR that has swept both the Daytona 500 and the Coke Zero 400 in the same year. Tomorrow night Dale Earnhardt Jr could duplicate that feat if he is able to find victory lane after winning the Daytona 500 earlier this year. All 3 drivers are excellent restrictor plate racers and should be at the very least considered for the win anytime NASCAR visits Daytona International Speedway.
As far as the outsiders are concerned, there are a host of guys that could spoil Saturday night’s party that we have not talked much about this week. It is nearly impossible to review every driver especially if you buy into the fact that anyone can win at Daytona. However if you are looking for extreme longshots, consider David Ragan and David Gilliland. The Front Row Motorsports drivers are very under rated for their skills at the superspeedways but seem to find the front of the pack in these races nevertheless. Gilliland won the pole for tomorrow night’s Coke Zero 400 by posting the fastest lap in the first round of knockout qualifying before rain washed out the final segments of qualifying. Ragan has multiple restrictor plate wins including a huge upset in the 2011 Coke Zero 400. If those two cars are able to stay together tomorrow night, then perhaps they could pull off another huge upset and visit victory lane. If they are not able find victory lane, here is a few guys we think have a good shot:
Coke Zero 400 Race Picks
*Note we always throw a few extra bets towards the restrictor plate races because race odds provide the opportunity for an enormous payout
Matt Kenseth +1275 (1 unit): One of those drivers in need of a win, #20 team performing extremely well, and JGR cars have been excellent at restrictor plate tracks in 2014.
Brad Keselowski +1500 (1 unit): Finished 3rd in Daytona 500, using same chassis, starting 26th
Greg Biffle +2200 (1 unit): 2003 Coke Zero 400 winner, 3rd best average finish at Daytona over last 10 races for drivers with multiple starts.
Ryan Newman +3300 (1 unit): Newsletter pick, two Top 5’s in the last 4 Daytona races, season best 3rd place finish last week at Kentucky
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5500 (.5 unit): Surprisingly Stenhouse has the best average finish among all active drivers at the restrictor plate tracks. Through 7 starts he owns a 10.86 average finish including a 7th back in February at the Daytona 500.
David Gilliland +8000 (.5 unit): starting on pole, under rated plate racer, value play
David Ragan +8000 (.5 unit): 2011 winner, under rated plate racer, another value play, starting 8th
H2H Matchups and Props
Brad Keselowski -115 over Jeff Gordon (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -130 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -130 over Marcos Ambrose (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -130 to finish under 12.5 (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -135 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
