Campingworld.com 500(k) Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 15th, 3:44PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Phoenix International Raceway will be the site of Sunday’s Campingworld.com 500(k) marking the 4th race of the season for the Sprint Cup Series. When the green flag drops at approximately 3:44PM (EST), 43 drivers will battle for 312 laps in the Valley of the Sun. The man that has been the undisputed king of Phoenix International Raceway will lead the field to the green flag from the pole position. That man is none other than reigning Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick who has won 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix and is a large favorite to win again on Sunday. While Harvick is a deserving favorite, there are other drivers that have a good shot of finding victory lane on Sunday as well. Find out who we think can knock Harvick from his throne and arise from the shadows in our Campingworld.com 500(k) race picks preview!
For the simple fact of saving time, let’s just keep it simple. At this point, Kevin Harvick is the guy to beat going into Sunday’s 312 lap event at Phoenix. Harvick has won 4 of the last 5 races, he won the pole, he was the fastest car in final practice in single lap speed, and also the fastest car in final practice in both 5 lap and 10 lap averages. Therefore let’s not spend all day talking about why you should bet Kevin Harvick, it should be a given at this point. Just make sure you are making the most with his odds either through a parlay or perhaps betting multiple units while shortening your roster if you do not follow our picks verbatim. Our race picks hit on the first leg of a parlay with Joey Logano (+165) in yesterday’s Xfinity Series Axalta 200. Therefore we already have a parlay to close out that has Mr. Harvick’s name all over it which is the smartest way to bet on a driver at such low odds. We also talked about this strategy in our weekly Newsletter that went out Tuesday night. So if you have not already, make sure to sign-up for our Newsletter on the home page to give you a good head start on picks and strategy each week.
As for the contenders that could challenge Harvick, several guys appear poised to make a run at the checkered flag on Sunday. The challengers may likely come from the camp of Team Penske with drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. Logano has been a force all season and has consistently been one of the fastest cars through the first 3 races in 2015. The #22 unloaded fast again this weekend qualifying 2nd and posting strong times in both of Saturday’s practice sessions. Teammate Brad Keselowski has had a rather quiet start to 2015. After wrecking in the Daytona 500, bad Brad has finished 9th and 7th in the following weeks at Atlanta and Las Vegas. Considering how strong Logano has run, it is rather surprising that Keselowski has not performed better in the opening races. However, Phoenix presents the opportunity for Keselowski to strike. Keselowski has posted finishes of 6th or betting in 5 of his last 6 starts at Phoenix. More importantly the #2 car looked really good in race trim on Saturday which taps the notion that he should be a factor on Sunday.
Outside of Team Penske, there are several drivers that appear poised for a good run on Sunday. Drivers Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne, and Martin Truex Jr all deserve some attention especially in match-up situations. Truex Jr is having the best season of his career through 3 races and has unloaded another fast #78 machine. Kasey Kahne has also shown speed each of the past few weeks and was once again fast in practice. Meanwhile Kurt Busch makes his return this week after missing the first 3 races of the season due to a suspension surrounding events of alleged domestic violence with his former girlfriend last year. Not only is Busch back in the driver seat but he has also posted some impressive times in sessions with the fastest lap in practice 2 and the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice. All 3 of these drivers appear to have rides worthy of posting a solid run on Sunday. Perhaps the chances of them actually winning are still slim, but these may be some names that you want to look at in H2H situations if you are keeping your roster short.
If you are looking for a few guys that could potentially challenge Harvick and Team Penske, then let’s discuss a few potential dark horses. Dale Earnhardt Jr was our Newsletter pick at +975. Earnhardt Jr has finished in the top 5 in every start this year. Kevin Harvick is the only other driver to also accomplish that feat. Additionally, Earnhardt Jr has been great at Phoenix over the last several years and finished 2nd to Harvick in this race one year ago. Earnhardt Jr is not exactly the fastest guy on speed charts from week to week in practices, but the #88 team has been getting it done on raceday. Therefore, we still think Earnhardt Jr could be a solid choice for Sunday’s Campingworld.com 500(k). If you are looking to go even further back in the field, let me suggest Kyle Larson or Jamie McMurray. Both Chip Ganassi cars have been strong in practices. McMurray was really happy with the balance on his racecar on Saturday but was just searching for a little extra speed. Larson was fast on speed and looked good on the long runs. Phoenix does not exactly sound like the track type that Larson would shine on but let’s not forget that he finished 2nd at Loudon last year as a rookie.
Campingworld.com 500(k) Race Picks
Dale Earnhardt Jr +975 (1 unit): Newsletter pick, two-time Phoenix winner, finished 2nd in this race one year ago, 6th in final practice
Brad Keselowski +975 (1.25 units): 3 top 5 finishes in last 4 starts, best 10 lap average in practice 2, starting 6th
Joey Logano +1050 (1 unit): finishes of 4th and 6th last year, team has been good everywhere in 2015, 4th fastest in final practice
Winning Parlay
Joey Logano +165 wins Axalta 200 (won)
Kevin Harvick +210 wins Campingworld.com 500(k)
To win: +720
H2H Match-ups/Props
Jamie McMurray -145 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Kyle Larson -130 over Ryan Newman (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski -140 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Brad Keselowski +295 finishes top 3 (1 unit)