Axalta 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 14th, 4:15PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The NASCAR Xfinity Series is slated to go 200 miles at Phoenix International Raceway later this afternoon in the Axalta 200. While 41 drivers are scheduled to take the green flag at 4:15PM (EST), everyone appears to be chasing just one driver in the reigning Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick. Harvick has been the undisputed king of Phoenix International Raceway over the past several years winning 4 of the last 5 races on the Cup side and has already captured the pole for Sunday’s Campingworld.com 500. Today Harvick will be driving the #88 Taxslayer.com Chevrolet for JR Motorsports; the same car he won with two weeks ago in his last Xfinity Series appearance at Atlanta. As an overwhelming favorite, is Harvick worth the risk or are there any other drivers that could surprise? We discuss those topics and more in our Axalta 200 race picks preview:
To start things off, let’s address the fact that Harvick is a deserving favorite. His run at Phoenix over the past several years has been nothing short of remarkable. However, let’s also address the downside to Harvick being listed as such an overwhelming favorite for today’s event. While “Happy” has been dominant at Phoenix, most of his success has been in a Cup Series car. While Harvick has performed well in the Xfinity Series at Phoenix, he has often come up short of victory. Harvick has posted just 1 victory and 6 runner-up finishes throughout his career at Phoenix in Xfinity Series competition. In 22 starts, Harvick has 16 top 5 and 6 runner-up finishes including most recently in this race one year ago when he finished 2nd to Kyle Busch. Therefore while Harvick is a must-have on your betting slip, let’s make sure we are being smart about how we bet him and make sure we are not putting all of our eggs in one basket on the #88 machine.
So who could be the spoiler this afternoon? The obvious choices would be either Matt Kenseth or Joey Logano who are the other two biggest Sprint Cup Series superstars that are scheduled to race today. In race trim, both Logano and Kenseth looked good finishing top two in best 10 lap averages in final practice. Both drivers have visited victory lane once at Phoenix before in Xfinity Series competition. Logano accomplished the feat in just 8 starts compared to Kenseth’s 14 starts. Still, both drivers are poised for an opportunity to return to victory lane this afternoon. Last week’s winner Austin Dillon will also be in the field again this week. Dillon was solid in practice and has posted finishes of 6th or better in 4 of his 5 career starts at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Outside of those drivers, the chances for a driver winning that is not in the Sprint Cup Series diminishes rather significantly. Sure, there are tremendously talented drivers like Chase Elliot, Ty Dillon, and others. However, those drivers have not been challenging for wins at this point in the season and there is still a noticeable gap between those drivers compared to the Cup guys which should not be surprising given the experience factor that is ever so important in NASCAR.
Still if you are looking for some guys that are worthy of making a good run, then there should be a couple. Both Chase Elliot and Ty Dillon have two top 10 finishes in both of their career starts at Phoenix. In fact, both drivers have 1 top 10 finish and 1 top 5 finish in their two starts. Dillon has been running a bit better thus far in the season and maybe the better pick between the two. If you are looking for a long shot for the victory, then perhaps take a look at Erik Jones in the #54 Monster Energy Toyota. We took Jones at +950 early this week in our NASCAR betting forums Axalta 200 thread. Not only is Jones driving the same car that Kyle Busch drove to victory at Phoenix in this race one year ago but the young driver has an excellent Phoenix resume. Back in 2013 at 17 years of age, Jones became the youngest winner in any of NASCAR’s top touring series with a victory in the Camping World Truck Series at Phoenix. Jones backed up that victory with a repeat victory in 2014 in the Truck Series and even posted a 6th place finish at Phoenix in November in just his 3rd career Xfinity Series start. Jones was solid in both practices on Friday and I believe he has the ability to get close to the front by the time the day is over in Phoenix this afternoon.
Axalta 200 Race Picks
Erik Jones +950 (1 unit): two Phoenix wins in two starts in Trucks Series, 6th place finish last November, 4th fastest 10 lap average in final practice
Kevin Harvick +250 (2 units): for all the reasons described above!
Open Parlay (2 Team)
Joey Logano +165 wins Axalta 200: (starting on pole, fastest 10 lap average in final practice)
*Open Slot* to be used for Sunday’s Campingworld.com 500
H2H Matchups
Ty Dillon -155 over Brian Scott (2 units)
