Auto Club 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 22nd, 3:46PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tomorrow afternoon the Sprint Cup Series will go racing in Fontana, California in the Auto Club 400. At approximately 3:46PM (EST), 43 drivers will unleash more than 725 horsepower onto Auto Club Speedway in what promises to be one of the best races of the season. Auto Club Speedway always produces great racing just as it did earlier today in the Xfinity Series Drive4Clots.com 300. Tomorrow we can expect a lot of 3 and perhaps even 4 wide racing at speeds approaching 200mph. Hold on tight race fans, we are going racing in California! Take a look as we try to put together another winning card with our Auto Club 400 race picks!
Auto Club Speedway presents a rather wide open style of racing that can be rather hand to handicap. The track has a little bit of everything from multiple grooves from the down under the white lines in the turns to all the way up against the wall, drafting help down the straightaways, big time tire fall offs during green flag runs, and more. Therefore a lot of things have to go your way to win in California. Going into Sunday, two drivers currently stand alone at the front of the pack in both Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. Let’s not ignore the elephant in the room. Though Harvick’s statistics are not particularly great at Auto Club Speedway, he did visit victory lane at Fontana back in 2011. More importantly nobody can ignore the run the #4 car has been on going back to last season which includes two straight wins and 7 straight top two finishes. The team is running too well to be ignored and they have unloaded another fast racecar for Sunday.
The guy that is poised to end Harvick’s win streak is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has been excellent in Fontana throughout his career with 5 victories and 5 runner-up finishes in 20 starts. Last year, the #48 basically dominated the race before he blew a tire while leading with 7 laps to go. Johnson has been fast everywhere this season and captured a convincing win at Atlanta in the 2nd race of the season. Over the past few weeks, the #48 team experienced tire issues at Las Vegas and got into some early trouble with Brian Vickers last week at Phoenix. Still, the #48 has been very strong this season despite a few bad finishes over the last few weeks. Tomorrow, Johnson has a good chance to put the #48 car back into victory lane. The team has been in the top 5 in every practice this weekend and they looked solid on long runs in race trim. Expect the #48 to stay at the front and challenge for the victory.
I know we said that Johnson and Harvick were leading the pack going into Sunday’s Auto Club 400 but they have a lot of hungry competition that will be biting on their heels when the green flag waves. One of those guys appears to be none other than Kurt Busch in the #41 machine. We discussed Busch early in the week in our newsletter as a potential early grab and that move is looking very sharp at the moment. Busch has dominated the speed charts this week finishing 1st through all 3 practices and also winning the pole. Busch is the only driver in the field that has finished inside the top 5 in each of the last two Fontana races and after a strong Phoenix run in his first race back from suspension; Busch looks poised for another strong run on Sunday.
Among the remaining competitors, there are a couple other guys that have piqued our interest. Toyota has struggled throughout 2015 but Denny Hamlin has been really strong throughout practices this week. The #11 car qualified 6th and finished with the 4th best 10 lap average in final practice. Perhaps this is the week for Toyota to rebound? JGR teammates Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth have the best average finishing position among active drivers behind Jimmie Johnson. Therefore this Sunday’s Auto Club 400 should be a rather strong measuring stick of just where the Joe Gibbs Racing programs stands at this point in 2015.
Drivers like Ryan Newman and Martin Truex Jr are looking to continue their strong start this season. Newman has posted back to back 3rd place finishes while Truex has posted the best start of his career through 4 races. Newman was solid in both of Saturday’s practices and he may be knocking on the door to score his first win since the 2013 Brickyard 500. It will be interesting to see if both Newman and Truex Jr can continue their strong start with another strong performance on Sunday. Lastly if you are looking for a few drivers that may hold some value in matchup situations, consider Paul Menard and Casey Mears.
Menard has posted top 10 finishes in his last two California starts and Auto Club Speedway has some similarities to Michigan International Speedway where Menard also runs really well. The #27 car finished 2nd on the speed charts in final practice so he may be worth consideration in the right type of match-up. Casey Mears is another guy that surprised some people on the speed charts Saturday. Mears finished 4th on speed in final practice and looked decent in practice 2 as well. Since you can expect Mears to be listed with lower tier drivers, he may be worth a play in match-up situations as well.
Auto Club 400 Race Picks
Kurt Busch +1600: 1st in all 3 practices, starting on pole, 2003 Auto Club Speedway winner
Ryan Newman +3500: another early suggested newsletter play, two straight 3rd place finishes, 4th in practice 2, 7th in final practice, starting 9th
Kyle Larson +2200: newsletter play, 2014 Xfinity Series winner, runner-up finish in only Fontana start in 2014, starting 5th
Jimmie Johnson +475 (2 units): 5 time Fontana winner, 5th in final practice, and 3rd in best consecutive 10 lap average in final practice
H2H Match-ups and Props
Denny Hamlin -125 over Kasey Kahne (1 unit)
Ryan Newman +1300 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
