Aaron’s 499 Fantasy Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Last week, Richmond International Raceway produced some of the best racing we have seen this year in the Sprint Cup Series. Fans were treated with a classic 4 car battle for the win with 8 laps to go and plenty of hard-nosed racing throughout the night which led to several post race altercations. Richmond’s hangover effect of drama and excitement will spill over this Sunday when drivers unleash 850 horsepower on the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway for the Aaron’s 499.
As most are surely aware, Talladega Superspeedway is the biggest track in NASCAR measuring 2.66 miles in length and serves as one of the two pillars for restrictor plate racing. Plate racing in its entirety, is one of the most exciting styles of racing in NASCAR for spectators. Cars reach tremendous speeds at over 200 miles per hour and can be literally inches apart 3 and 4 wide throughout the pack. Those conditions along with the element of the draft present tremendous racing along with the constant looming threat of a big wreck notoriously called “the big one.”
For bettors and fantasy owners, “the big one” has the capability of ruining your entire roster. Furthermore if you consider how the draft levels the playing field, predicting these restrictor plate races can be an extremely difficult task. However it can be very rewarding as well especially for bettors who have the option of grabbing drivers with much better odds than in typical race weekends. While most consider restrictor plate races a crapshoot, there is still a rather fine art to this 200mph 3 wide dancing. Therefore we breakdown a few drivers that you must have on your roster for this weekend’s Aaron’s 499 and a few dark horses to keep on your radar as well.
Must-Have Drivers
Dale Earnhardt Jr: I know it sounds sort of cliché, but Dale Jr truly is the best restrictor plate racer in NASCAR today. Junior did not shine much through the years of tandem racing but now that the ‘pack is back’, so is the Pied Piper. Junior lead the most laps while pulling out the victory in the Daytona 500 to kick off the year and now returns to a track where he has 5 career wins which is 2nd only to Jeff Gordon among active drivers. Junior posted a runner-up finish in his last trip to Talladega and he will once again be the man to beat this Sunday.
Brad Keselowski: Brad Keselowski has already posted two wins at Talladega in just 10 starts including the first win of his career in 2009 in a part time role for for James Finch at Phoenix Racing. That win ultimately expedited his progression to the Sprint Cup Series. Still Keselowski is an underappreciated restrictor plate racer and gets over looked at times when these races roll around. At Daytona earlier this year, he finished 2nd in the Sprint Unlimited and 3rd in the Daytona 500 yet many people refuse to label him a ‘restrictor plate racer.’ Don’t let that mistake happen to you, as it will not be long before he scores another plate win.
Clint Bowyer Clint Bowyer is another driver that is bound to strike pay dirt soon. Since 2010, Bowyer has posted the best average finish (8.5) among active drivers at Talladega which includes two wins and a runner-up finish.
Dark Horses
Jamie McMurray: Another underappreciated plate driver is Jamie McMurray. Outside of your big name drivers, McMurray is the only guy that has posted multiple wins at Talladega. The most recent of those wins came in the Sprint Cup Series’ most recent trip to Dega in October 2013. Additionally, McMurray has led at least 1 lap in 8 of his last 9 starts at the 2.66 mile Superspeedway. Try to find another mid-range driver that has accomplished that feat.
Denny Hamlin: It is not often that you consider Hamlin a dark horse, but his averages are least impressive at Talladega. However, he has run well in the last few races but has been a product of bad luck that has resulted in poor finishes. Hamlin was just 1 position away, with his runner-up finish in the Daytona 500, from sweeping the entire speedweeks in Daytona earlier this year. Joe Gibbs Racing has taken some major steps forward in their restrictor plate racing in the last few years and Hamlin may be a surprise pick this Sunday.
David Ragan: Looking for a huge longshot this Sunday? Consider David Ragan, the guy that delivered a huge upset win at Talladega last May. While many consider that win a fluke, Ragan’s performance at Talladega have been rock solid. Ragan has finished 7th or better in each of his last 4 starts at Talladega Superspeedway and truly thrives at these plate races. If you are looking for a driver with a ton of value, David Ragan is your best option.
