AAA 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Date and Time: Sunday September 28th, 2014. 2:17PM Eastern
Where: Dover International Speedway
TV: ESPN
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, known as the “Challenger Round”, will conclude today at Dover International Speedway with the running of the AAA 400. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have already secured their spots into the next round with wins at Chicagoland and New Hampshire. Today’s race marks the cutoff for the first round of the Chase meaning the bottom 4 winless drivers in points will be eliminated from the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship. Drivers like Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne are all flirting with disaster in terms of where they currently stand in the points. Therefore today’s AAA 400 promises to provide an entirely new different form of excitement as we look to see whose Championship hopes will stay alive. Find out our thoughts about the championship race and get our AAA 400 race picks:
In regards to the outlook on the Chase field, Aric Almirola appears to be all but eliminated barring any miraculous win this afternoon. Almirola is last in points by a good margin, running poorly, and quite possibly too far back to gain enough ground on the field to make it through. However from 8th place Matt Kenseth all the way to 15th place Kurt Busch, those drivers are separated by just 8 points meaning those drivers are one big mistake away (blown tire, mechanical failure, speeding penalty, the list goes on..) from ending their bid towards a championship.
Denny Hamlin finds himself towards the bottom of that list as a result of last week’s troubles at Loudon. The #11 car has been running fairly well but that one mistake his Hamlin on the borderline and needing a good run today. However, drivers like Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne have not run well at all. Busch and Biffle especially have been off and all of those drivers need a strong performance today in order to save their championship chances. The good news is what this new championship format, drivers just need to survive. Any of these drivers that make it through can earn a win or string together a few solid finishes to keep advancing until we have a no holds barred 1 race shootout at Homestead for the championship. So drivers and teams just have to find a way to keep advancing which will be the main storyline in today’s AAA 400.
In regard to picking a winner for today’s AAA 400, you simply start with Jimmie Johnson and then consider the rest of the field. Johnson’s 9 wins in 25 starts is simply remarkable. Even more remarkable is the fact the #48 team has been strongest in recent years winning 6 out of the last 11 at the Monster Mile. Johnson has been solid all week in practices, will be starting 8th, and remains an undeniable favorite. Outside of Johnson, a few of your normal names in recent weeks dominated the leader boards in Friday and Saturday’s practices. Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, and Brad Keselowski could all easily be factors again this afternoon. Harvick won the pole but has never won in 27 starts at the Monster Mile. Today figures to be his best opportunity. Keselwoski won this race in 2012 and I do not think anyone would go against the blue deuce today. Meanwhile Gordon remains one of the toughest cars to deal with on a weekly basis as well. Gordon has 4 wins at Dover but the last came all the way back in 2001.
Of course we cannot go over every driver’s chances today but did want to take the time to point out a few potential dark horses that could be either used for a winning or H2H style wager. A few of those potential dark horses include Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Jamie McMurray. Kenseth may not actually be a dark horse but he has kind of flown under the radar this week. Still, the #20 has been running really strong and is closing in on that first win of 2014. Kenseth was fastest in practice 2 and was strong in race trim in the final session. Meanwhile Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jamie McMurray may be two names that surprise some people today. Junior has fallen off the radar since his 3rd win of 2014 at Pocono but the #88 team has been grinding out solid finishes. Dover is one of Earnhardt’s better tracks and he has been strong throughout practices. McMurray is one of the non-chase drivers that could spoil a win for the chase competitors. McMurray has been running extremely well in recent weeks and has been at the top of the practice boards all weekend. Keep an eye out on McMurray, Earnhardt, and Kenseth today as potential sleeper picks.
AAA 400 Race Picks
Matt Kenseth +1175 (1.25 units): two time Dover winner, fastest in practice 2, 4th best 10 lap average in final practice, starting 14th
Brad Keselowski +700 (1.5 units): 2012 winner, 2nd in final practice, 3rd best 10 lap average in practice 2
Kevin Harvick +450 (2 units): most dominate car throughout this weekend’s practices, fastest 10 lap average in final practice, starting on pole
Jamie McMurray +4000 (.5 unit): running well, strong in terms of speed, and held 2nd fastest 10 lap average in final practice
Cover Parlay
Hendrick Motorsports wins +180 AAA 400
Carl Edwards -160 over Greg Biffle
Jamie McMurray finishes under 10.5 +110
Risking .75 unit to win: +650
H2H Matchups
Dale Earnhardt Jr -140 over Clint Bowyer (3 units)
Matt Kenseth -145 over Joey Logano (1 unit)
*More plays to be added
