2020 EchoPark 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 6th, 4:30PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Shortly after the Truck Series concludes at Atlanta Motor Speedway early Saturday, the Xfinity Series will wave the green flag for the EchoPark 250 in an action packed racing double header. On Monday, Noah Gragson scored his 2nd win of the season with a win at Bristol. Gragson actually moved teammate Justin Allgaier in the closing laps to score the victory and is now 2nd in the standings behind Chase Briscoe. This week the racing action moves from the half-mile bullring at Bristol to a rugged 1.5 mile Atlanta Motor Speedway that always produces excitement. Take a look as we give some betting insight and provide our 2020 EchoPark 250 race picks for Atlanta!

From an entry list standpoint, there are not any surprises in Saturday’s race. It seems the Cup Series stars will be choosing to compete in the Truck Series rather than the Xfinity Series. The only notable callout is that AJ Allmendinger returns to the #16 car this week for his 2nd start of the season after a rough outing last week at Bristol. As a result, Chase Briscoe is once again the heavy favorite to take home the victory. Briscoe was a heavy favorite last week but was never a big factor in competing for the win. The #98 team did salvage a runner-up finish thanks to the chaos in the closing laps. This week Briscoe will have a good opportunity to reclaim his weekly “favorite” title at a track that favors the “best” drivers over car speed/setup combinations.

The most exciting aspect to racing at Atlanta is that the track provides numerous challenges. The low-grip surface is a challenge for drivers as they attempt to muscle cars through the corners while maintaining their momentum. Atlanta’s surface is actually among the oldest in NASCAR and lap times will fall off nearly a second for every 10-15 laps under green. This provides the opportunity for pit road strategy in the latter stages and also means that we could witness some variance between short-run and long-run speed. Because these factors can impact how things unfold, we should roster a few drivers that may find themselves in position for a chance at victory just as Noah Gragson did a week ago.

Betting Strategy

I did send out early picks via email this week for both Truck and Cup Series races. For Saturday’s EchoPark 250, I did not have any early picks. Opening odds took longer for the Xfinity Series this week due to Monday’s race. Therefore, we have a clean slate to work with going into Saturday. As odds currently stand, things have a rather bleak outlook in terms of ROI. We have 6 drivers listed at 8 to 1 odds or lower with Chase Briscoe leading all drivers at just 2.5 to 1 odds. To give everyone a heads up, I am going to be rather conservative until I see line movement. I expect odds will shift overnight and into race day. I really don’t see how some of the odds could get worse and believe we can likely get a better number on the 2nd-tier favorites on Saturday!

If we can manage to find some better value behind Briscoe, I don’t mind taking 3-4 different drivers for smaller size bets. Because long-run speed can be so tricky at Atlanta and these teams have not had the opportunity to dial-in their race cars, this race provides a strong possibility for a somewhat unexpected driver to emerge at the front of the field. I personally like Chase Briscoe’s chances this week despite the disgusting low odds. Therefore, I will look to have Briscoe in a parlay if they are offered at 5Dimes so again be sure to check the picks close to race time to see if those options have been added.

Drivers To Target

Outside of Briscoe, Justin Allgaier has shown the speed to win on a weekly basis this year. However, Allgaier appears cursed because he does not have any quality finishes that match the speed the #7 team has shown. In 9 career Atlanta starts, Allgaier’s best finish is 3rd which occurred just last year and he has led just 30 laps through those 9 career starts. Therefore, I cannot advocate betting on Allgaier at 5 to 1 odds despite the speed the team continues to show. Instead, I believe guys like Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and Brandon Jones are the best 2nd-tier options. We just need the odds to get a little better before we can lock-in those targets.

Ross Chastain is coming off a season-best 4th place at Charlotte which is a track that nearly mirrors Atlanta exactly in shape and banking. Atlanta’s surface is more abrasive than Charlotte but both tracks share a lot of similarities. Furthermore, Chastain is an extremely talented wheel-man which is needed at a place like Atlanta. In terms of Austin Cindric, I am going to keep putting him in my “drivers to target” list until he finally gets a win. To be brutally honest, I believe the #22 team would have already won a race or two with a more talented driver behind the wheel. That’s not a knock to Cindric because he is a solid talent but the #22 car has been fast every week.

In fact, I firmly believe the #22 has the best raw speed of any team in the field which can be identified through the finishes at Las Vegas (2nd), Fontana (3rd), Darlington (4th), and Charlotte (3rd). Cindric has the speed but can the driver get it done? Lastly, I also have Brandon Jones in my 2nd-tier favorites list this week. Jones has been most successful on the shorter layouts this year but he is an experienced driver that is showing improvement in 2020. Jones posted his best Atlanta finish in this race last year by bringing home a 4th place result and I believe he will have the opportunity to hang around the top 5 again on Saturday.

If you are looking for options to target in the realm of H2H match-ups, I have Riley Herbst and Justin Haley pegged as drivers that should exceed projections on Saturday. If you remember, I was high on Haley last week at Bristol and honestly the #11 car appeared to be destined for a huge underdog victory until he cut a tire down in the closing laps. The #11 team does not have the raw speed that some of the other cars possess. However, I am a huge fan of Haley’s driving ability and Atlanta is another track where that skill set will likely shine. Also, do not overlook Riley Herbst in the #18 car. At 40 to 1 odds, Herbst is a long shot candidate and H2H sharp play. The rookie has faded a bit in recent weeks but still has a really fast car and is better than where the finishes have played out in recent races. Herbst finished 2nd back at Fontana which is another low-grip track that produces significant tire wear. The team and driver are more than capable of putting together another similar performance if all things click.

Fantasy Racing Targets

I am not going to repeat a lot of what was stated above. I feel like I clearly explained my expectations pertaining to most of the upper-echelon drivers. I will say that Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric are solid options based on price, starting position, and potential. We could add AJ Allmendinger into that group because the “Dinger” will be coming from the 30th starting spot. However, Allmendinger’s price tag has been properly adjusted for that reason as the highest priced driver on the board and I expect that he will be highly owned.

Deeper into the field, I really like guys like Anthony Alfredo and Myatt Snider to provide strong fantasy value in this race. Alfredo is making his 3rd start in the #21 car for RCR with finishes of 6th (Fontana) and 14th (Darlington) previously. Alfredo definitely has top 15 speed and has fantasy value from the 24th starting spot. Myatt Snider has been the other driver to share time in the #21 car this season. This week Snider moves over to the #93 car owned by Rod Sieg. Snider has two prior starts for the #93 team which resulted in an impressive 11th place run at Fontana and then found trouble at Darlington with a 35th place finish. However, this team in RSS Racing has shown speed this season which can be also witnessed in Ryan Sieg’s performance with top 5 finishes at both Fontana and Las Vegas. From a fantasy standpoint, Snider will be starting from the 35th position and is listed at just $8,100 which presents tremendous upside if he can have another top 15 afternoon.

2020 EchoPark 250 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 EchoPark 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +700 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +880 (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +4500 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +6000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Chase Briscoe +275 wins EchoPark 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Michael Annett -115 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
Justin Haley +140 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)