2020 Vet Tix 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 6th, 1:15PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will return to action on Saturday to kick off a double header with the running of the Vet Tix and Camping World 200 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Back at Charlotte, Chase Elliott scored an impressive victory in the NC Education Lottery 200 in his 1st Truck Series start in 3 years. The victory also locked down the notorious $100,000 bounty posted by beating Kyle Busch which surely made the win even better. On Saturday, Busch will get an opportunity at redemption as he returns to the Truck Series against Chase Elliott and the rest of the Truck Series regulars. As we prepare for a full day of racing on Saturday which includes the Xfinity Series’ and the running of the EchoPark 250 shortly after the Vet Tix 200, we take this time to breakdown our expectations and provide our 2020 Vet Tix 200 race picks!

I must admit, I was rather surprised to see Chase Elliott get the job done at Charlotte nearly two weeks ago. Elliott was never an “elite” Truck Series driver and I expected the long layoff from his last Truck Series start to have a bigger impact. Instead, Elliott delivered by leading a race-high 47 laps to prove that he is one of the best drivers on the planet regardless of equipment. With that being said, Elliott did get a little bit of help. Busch was caught speeding on pit road and still was able to rally back to a runner-up finish. Without that speeding penalty, it would have made things more difficult to get around the series’ all-time leader in wins. In this week’s race at Atlanta, Busch and Elliott will undoubtedly be huge favorites yet again as they tackle an Atlanta track that requires high-level talent to pull off fast speeds.

One of the most impressive facts we have seen thus far in 2020 is the parity among the Truck Series regulars. We have seen guys in underfunded equipment have the ability to run at the front of the field. In the Charlotte preview, I spoke highly of Zane Smith commenting that he would likely have a bright future but just needs more experience. Zane Smith went on to finish 3rd at Charlotte behind only Elliott and Busch in an extremely impressive performance. Outside of Smith’s strong run, we have seen several guys run upfront this season and prove they are capable of winning. Todd Gilliland has run well despite a step-down in equipment. John Hunter Nemechek got into the thick of things at Charlotte. Meanwhile some of the veterans like Matt Crafton, Johnny Sauter, and Ben Rhodes have all been strong throughout the first few races. Therefore, this Truck Series is going to be really entertaining moving forward especially when the Cup Series stars use up their eligibility.

Betting Strategy

For the first time this year, I sent out early picks via email this week because frankly there was a lot of value at opening odds. For some reason once odds were released, Kyle Busch was an even bigger favorite compared to his betting odds at Charlotte. I understand that Atlanta is a driver’s track. Atlanta’s surface is the most abrasive of all 1.5 mile tracks with a really low grip-level. The low grip-level makes things extremely tough on drivers behind the wheel and it puts a premium on long run speed. This combination typically favors the “better” drivers however it also opens the door up for strategy. In the event things get dicey down the stretch, this race could be won by the team that makes the correct call on pit road or simply uses their tires to their best ability.

Because of these reasons, there is serious value in fading Busch yet again and that is exactly what I did with my early picks this week. Chase Elliott was listed at 5.5 to 1 odds at opening with guys like Brett Moffitt (+1500) and Johnny Sauter (+1980) all getting very generous numbers. Simply put, the value in the drivers behind Busch are simply too valuable to ignore. Make no mistake about it, Busch is deserving of the favorite spot and will be extremely tough to beat this week. However, the odds behind Busch are so valuable that I am willing to increase my risk this week in hopes of a big payout. We just need a little luck for that to happen.

Drivers To Target

Behind the top two obvious favorites, I have been really impressed by the Thorsport Racing trucks of Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, and Johnny Sauter. Those trucks seem to have better speed than everyone right now. Though the margin is not overwhelming, I do believe they have the best race speed which really bodes well for both Sauter and Crafton who are experienced veterans that understand what it takes at Atlanta. You could make the argument that Ross Chastain and Austin Hill have the talent to win at Atlanta or anywhere for that matter. I would agree with that sentiment but I don’t like either drivers chances at Atlanta mainly because of the long-run criteria for success.

Matt Crafton, John Hunter Nemechek, and Brett Moffitt are all former winners at Atlanta Motor Speedway that are participating on Saturday. I believe all drivers are definitely capable of surprise victories again under the right conditions. Crafton could be a sneaky low-risk pick because he is listed at nearly 30-1 odds. I took Moffitt early in the week because I was impressed by his Charlotte performance and he is a teammate of Chase Elliott. The GMS Racing equipment looked solid and Moffitt has always been a terrific driver in terms of long-run speed. At 15 to 1 odds, I could not pass up on Moffitt’s chances in the event the top two drivers ran into trouble.

If you are looking for deeper options whether it is for a dark horse winner or for H2H purposes, I believe Zane Smith and Sheldon Creed present promising options yet again this week. I have spoken highly on Smith on several occasions yet he is still listed at 55 to 1 odds. Against bottom-tier drivers, he is a really sharp H2H proponent until odds start catching up with his talent. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed is one of the drivers that I really like that is flying under the radar. Creed has been strong in each of the 1.5 mile tracks at Las Vegas and Charlotte. Creed belongs to the GMS Racing stable but often gets overlooked in just his 2nd year in the Truck Series. However, I believe Creed continues to improve behind the wheel and shows speed each week. I’m not sure if I would list Creed as a “dark horse” but I do believe he could present some value in the form of betting match-ups against the right opponent.

Fantasy Racing Targets

The starting lineup for the Vet Tix 200 was announced on Thursday and Christian Eckes will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag. Brett Moffitt, Austin Hill, and Kyle Busch are all starting in the first 3 rows and it will be interesting to see how long it takes Busch to get to the lead. For value in terms of starting positions, Niece Motorsports has a full stable of fantasy options starting in the 20th, 26th, and 27th positions in Ryan Truex, Jeb Burton, and Ross Chastain. I really like Chastain from the 27th position to return solid fantasy value but the cheaper options for both Truex and Burton are enticing as well.

John Hunter Nemechek is listed at a hefty $10,600 price tag but starting from the 29th position provides solid potential. This is the type of track that John Hunter typically runs well at and he has an opportunity to be a good fantasy pivot against the favorites of Elliott and Busch. A few cheap options that provide fantasy potential includes Brennan Poole, Christian Eckes, and Spencer Boyd who are all listed under $7,000. Eckes is starting from the pole and will likely lose some positions. However if he can lead a few laps and manage to finish inside the top 6-7 trucks, he could still provide value. Meanwhile, both Poole and Boyd are cheaper options who should move forward once the green flag drops barring misfortune.

The intriguing fact surrounding this week’s fantasy prices in the Truck Series is that you can roster Kyle Busch and decent options throughout the remainder of your lineup. Typically taking Busch is roster suicide in the Truck Series because of his insanely high price tag. However there are so many drivers that provide value at cheap prices, it is possible to roster Busch successfully this week. As a result, guys like Christian Eckes and Austin Hill will be in my lineup this week as they are dirt cheap options that are capable of running upfront. Obviously if those guys get into trouble, it could be disastrous for the overall lineup but I am willing to take that risk this week in order to roster several top-tier drivers along with Busch!

2020 Vet Tix 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Vet Tix 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +550 (1 unit)
Brett Moffitt +1500 (.75 unit)
Johnny Sauter +1950 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +2500 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +3000 (.5 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +4500 (.25 unit)
Zane Smith +5500 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Johnny Sauter +100 over Ross Chastain
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Zane Smith -115 over Todd Gilliland (3 units)