2020 Cheddars 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Monday June 1st, 7:15PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series returns tomorrow for a rare Monday night spectacle with the running of the Cheddar’s 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Cheddar’s 300 was originally scheduled for Saturday but was postponed when the Cup Series’ was rained out Wednesday night in Charlotte. Since some Cup teams share pit crew members with Xfinity Series teams, NASCAR pushed this race back to Monday to ensure crewmen had enough time to transition from Charlotte to Bristol. Earlier today, Brad Keselowski won an action-packed Supermarket Heroes 500 in a race that yielded 17 cautions. With no practices on the table again, tomorrow’s Cheddar’s 300 could be just as exciting and chaotic. Take a look as we preview Xfinity Series action at Bristol and provide our 2020 Cheddar’s 300 race picks!

The entry list for Monday’s Cheddar’s 300 shows all Xfinity Series regular and part-time drivers marking the first time in several races that we have not had a Cup Series driver stepping down into competition. The only noteworthy anomaly on the entry list involves AJ Allmendinger who will make his 1st start of the season in the #16 for Kaulig Racing. The former Cup Series veteran made 5 starts for Kaulig Racing in 2019 and captured a victory on Charlotte’s ROVAL. Allmendinger only posted 1 career top 10 finish in 21 career starts at Bristol and not necessarily known as a short-track talent. Therefore this choice to suit-up behind the wheel at Bristol seems slightly odd because we have typically seen Allmendinger participate at the superspeedway or road course venues which plays more to his driving strengths.

From a historical narrative, Justin Allgaier is the only driver in tomorrow’s field with a Bristol win on his resume. Allgaier’s Bristol victory came all the way back in 2010. However, Allgaier has posted two runner-up finishes since that victory and has scored top 5 finishes in 6 of his last 9 starts. As one of the most experienced drivers in the field, Allgaier definitely should get a vote of confidence tomorrow. I know Allgaier has suffered a lot of bad luck in recent weeks but we should not overlook the fact that Allgaier has been fast most of the year. Another top tier threat heading into Monday’s race includes the #98 of Chase Briscoe. Briscoe has not only become the “guy to beat” in the Xfinity Series but he was also really good at Bristol as a rookie last year posting top 5 finishes in both races. Briscoe finished in the runner-up position to Tyler Reddick last August. When you think about Briscoe’s progression in 2020 combined with how well he performed at Bristol last year, then it is easy to see why the #98 is the leading betting favorite at nearly 3 to 1 odds.

Betting Strategy

I know people probably get tired of me using the word “strategy” every week. However, I am a firm believer that strategy should differ from week to week based on both the track and betting odds. In the Xfinity Series, we have seen a ton of competitive competition this year which opens the door to a potential “surprise” winner. I thought we might see a surprise winner in the Cup Series race on Sunday and there were definitely plenty of opportunities for guys like Ryan Blaney, Jimmie Johnson, Ricky Stenhouse, and Clint Bowyer to score their first victory of the season. I expect we will see a couple of surprises Monday night with lesser-known names getting into the mix. Normally I would solely favor the best driving talents in this race from a betting standpoint but the lack of practices have proven to provide an unprecedented wildcard factor. While it makes things tougher for bettors, the opportunity still lingers for a big (odds) style winner based on the parity we have seen among the competition this year. Additionally, the odds for the favorites and intermediates are not very appealing with 6 different drivers listed at less than 10 to 1 odds. I am hoping for some positive line movement on Monday for some of the drivers because most of the betting field lacks value. As a result, I believe the best strategy option for Monday is similar to what we used in the Cup Series which focused maximizing variance, downgrading our average unit per bet, and focusing on value!

Drivers To Target

Outside of the favorites that I spoke about above, there are a few guys that have run well in previous Bristol races that deserve some attention. Among the names that are capable of winning on Monday based on prior Bristol performances include Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton, and Ross Chastain who are in the group of intermediate betting odds. Burton made his 1st career Xfinity Series start in this race last year and ran inside the top 10 all day before settling for a 10th place finish. Austin Cindric has been running strong everywhere this season and nearly had a victory last week at Charlotte.

Cindric has improved in all 4 career Bristol starts and finished 5th last fall. For Ross Chastain, I am really eager to see how the #10 car performs tomorrow night. Chastain was impressive last week at Charlotte and now will get to tackle a short track where Kaulig Racing does not have nearly as big of a disadvantage compared to the competition. Furthermore, Chastain has never got the opportunity to race at Bristol in winning equipment. Chastain has a couple of quality finishes including a best 9th place finish during his time with car owner Johnny Davis. In all honesty, Bristol suits Chastain’s driving style and aggression perfectly. I am expecting the #10 to be at the front all night. Therefore if I had to rank a few guys outside of the top 2 favorites going into Monday, Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric are at the top of the list.

If you are looking for a couple of long shots that could fly under the radar, take a look at both Michael Annett and Justin Haley who are currently listed at 55 to 1 odds. Annett has not got the finishes in 2020 to showcase the speed the #1 team has shown. However, the #1 team is exceeding expectations this year and Annett has become a pretty solid driver at Bristol with top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts with JR Motorsports. If Annett can hang around the top half-dozen cars all night, he could be the type of talent to steal a win if he can get track position in the closing laps. For Justin Haley, I don’t like his chances as much as Annett. Still, I have a lot of respect for the talent that Justin Haley possesses and Bristol is a track where he could better his equipment in terms of performance.

Lastly, Daniel Hemric is an excellent underrated betting option going into Monday. Personally, I am not overly ecstatic about his current odds at near 11.5 to 1. Perhaps the betting odds are justified because Hemric has finished 5th, 7th, 3rd, and 24th in his 4 career starts at Bristol. The most recent 24th place finish is misleading because it involved a late-race incident after Hemric had been battling in the top 5 for much of the race. I never like to bet on a driver to earn their first career victory because the odds normally don’t justify the probability. However, Hemric has proved to be really good at this track and the #8 team fielded a really strong car with Jeb Burton here last fall. Therefore, I believe Hemric is a live dark horse that could also be targeted in H2H situations.

2020 Cheddar’s 300 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Cheddar’s 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +760 (1 unit)
Austin Cindric +900 (.75 unit) Courtesy of MyBookie
Daniel Hemric +1000 (.75 unit)
Michael Annett +5500 (.25 unit)
Justin Haley +5500 (.25 unit)

H2H Matchups and Props

Chase Briscoe -140 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -125 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Austin Cindric -120 over Brandon Jones (2 units)