2020 Toyota 500k Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Wednesday May 20th, 7:53PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After finally getting back to racing last Sunday amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, NASCAR will face yet another challenge Wednesday night in the form of Mother Nature. Despite not making landfall, Tropical Storm Arthur has brought heavy rain to the Carolinas this week. Tuesday night’s Xfinity Series Toyota 200 has already been postponed and there are legitimate concerns about Wednesday’s forecast surrounding the Toyota 500k. When we do get back to racing at Darlington for the 2nd time this week, Kevin Harvick will have the luxury of becoming the 1st driver, in the modern era, to win back to back races at the same track within the same week. However last Sunday’s The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington proved there are many legitimate challengers waiting for another opportunity with The Lady in Black. Take a look as we breakdown what to expect in our 2nd Cup Series race at Darlington as we provide our 2020 Toyota 500k race picks!

For the 2nd time this week, we will have another race without any pre race on-track activity in the form of practices or qualifying. Obviously last Sunday’s opening race at Darlington will give us a good barometer towards expectations into this week’s 2nd event. While Harvick dominated the 2nd of half of Sunday’s 400 mile race, there were several frontrunners that were capable of winning. Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson all had cars capable of winning throughout portions of the race. To complicate matters, drivers like Martin Truex, Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, William Byron, and Kyle Busch displayed speed and talent behind the wheel throughout Sunday’s event. Johnson wrecked while leading the race, Byron had a tire go down while at the front of the pack, and Kyle Busch’s day was ruined late with a cut tire. Needless to say, those drivers will automatically be strong fantasy options after showing proven speed last Sunday and will start towards the back in the Toyota 500k.

Unfortunately, betting odds have nearly mirrored exactly what we witnessed in Sunday’s race. Kevin Harvick is listed at a disgusting 3.5 to 1 price tag along with 8 other drivers that are listed below 10 to 1. Meanwhile some of the drivers that could be targeted as dark horses, their value has been completely saturated. For example, Jimmie Johnson led a whopping 9 laps on Sunday before he ran into the lap car of Chris Beuscher and was sent head first into the inside wall. I am not trying to hate on Johnson but that was an uncharacter like error and it has now been 100 races since his last victory. Despite the winless streak, Johnson is listed at just 15-1 odds on the heels of Sunday’s performance. While I can understand the optimism for the #48 this week along with all the Hendrick Motorsports cars who were really strong on Sunday, I cannot find any betting rationale to lay money with the #48 at 15-1 odds in the midst of a 100 race winless streak. Yet, Johnson is just one example of several drivers whose risk far outweighs their reward from an odds standpoint heading into Wednesday.

Betting Strategy

Since betting odds are hampering our ROI, we will have to be very conservative with our win (futures) bets for this particular race. In fact, I am going to downsize my typical risks slightly around my win bets because of the distasteful odds. Not only do we have several legitimate challengers, there is still a slight level of uncertainty, and most importantly the betting odds simply lack value. Instead, I believe we may have some success in the realm of H2H match-ups if we could avoid misfortune. Admittedly, I jumped the gun on the H2H match-ups in Sunday’s race risking more H2H units than I originally planned. Looking back, I should have remained conservative with so much uncertainty. For this race, I think we have a better baseline of expectations and can use that knowledge to find the sharp plays.

Drivers to Target

From a H2H perspective, I remain high on the likes of William Byron, Kurt Busch, and Tyler Reddick all provide excellent betting targets. For those that remember, I favored Byron significantly going into Sunday’s event and pointed out he had run very well at Darlington despite lackluster finishes. Byron had one of the fastest cars last Sunday through the opening half of the race before a blown tire ruined his day. If the #24 team can shake off the bad luck, Byron has proved that he can get around Darlington and you have to also acknowledge the speed of the entire Hendrick Motorsports brigade last weekend. For Kurt Busch, he just continues to impress at the Lady in Black.

The elder Busch has now finished 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 3rd in his last 4 Darlington starts. The #1 car did not have the best raw speed last Sunday but the driver executed behind the wheel which is exactly what you want when laying your money on the line. Lastly, Tyler Reddick should be given some consideration. Reddick’s value will likely decrease after Sunday’s 7th place finish and strong starting spot for this race. However, the rookie continues to impress in his 1st season with Richard Childress Racing and actually leads the Rookie of the Year race over the likes of Cole Custer and Christopher Bell. Reddick is an extremely talented driver which he has shown at places like Chicagoland and Homestead which share come characteristics to Darlington. I am sure the word is probably out on Reddick but he still can be targeted in match-ups if you can find the right price.

Keep in mind, the drivers above are a few that I believe hold the best H2H value based on who they will be projected against at relatively even odds. If you are looking for fantasy anchors or guys that have a high probability of fighting for the victory, Kevin Harvick (1st pit stall again), Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski remain your best options. I would say Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott are among the next group of drivers that are well within striking distance as well. Also, I would also like to bring up Erik Jones name as well. Jones would not be my top pick for a dark horse in the Toyota 500k but we need to give some credit where credit is due. After winning the Southern 500 in 2019, Jones backed it up with a solid 8th place finish on Sunday. With 4 career Darlington starts under his belt, Jones has finishes of 5th, 8th, 1st, and 8th place which is really impressive. Therefore, the #20 likely deserves some fantasy and H2H consideration as well.

Drivers to Fade

There were a lot of “comers and goers” as they say last Sunday in The Real Heroes 400. Martin Truex nearly went a lap down during the 2nd run of the race before turning things around late. Brad Keselowski looked dominant early but faded in the latter stages. This type of inconsistency, which likely has some correlation to the lack of practices, can be difficult to gauge from an expectation standpoint. I don’t want to select any drivers as “fade” options that simply had bad luck or lost the handling of the car. Therefore my fade list for Wednesday remains relatively short and surrounds the likes of Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Michael McDowell. I personally thought Blaney would be much better last Sunday because he has arguably been the fastest car this season despite a pitiful Darlington resume. However, Blaney was never a factor at any point in the race which leads me to believe the averages are more driver related than car related. In 6 career starts, Blaney’s best finish is 13th which leaves a lot of fade room because he is paired against top-tier drivers.

Clint Bowyer was one of the drivers that I pointed out as fade material in last Sunday’s race but unfortunately I could not find a match-up that made sense. Bowyer brought home a 17th place result and now has averaged a 20.3 finishing position in his last 10 Darlington starts. It may be difficult to find rational match-ups to fade Bowyer but we may have better luck for Wednesday’s race with Bowyer starting in the 3rd position. Lastly, Michael McDowell is another driver that rarely performs at Darlington with a lucrative 30.3 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Darlington. Obviously McDowell is a lower-tier driver but he was also paired against the likes of John Hunter Nemechek and Tyler Reddick last Sunday who had great performances. Therefore, add McDowell to the fade list as well.

2020 Toyota 500k Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Toyota 500k Race Picks

*Plays could be added unitl “Final” status is displayed

Alex Bowman +800 (1 unit) *odds courtesy of BetOnline
Denny Hamlin +900 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +1700 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1800 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +485 wins Toyota 500k
Christopher Bell +115 over Cole Custer
Risking 1 unit to win: +1150

H2H Bets and Props

William Byron -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -115 over Martin Truex (2 units)