2020 Toyota 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Tuesday May 19th, 8:16PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After a successful return to racing on Sunday in the Cup Series, the Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to make their return Tuesday night with the running of the Toyota 200 at Darlington Raceway. Similar to the Cup Series’ format on Sunday, Xfinity Series drivers and teams will face the steep challenge of tackling The Lady in Black without any practice or on-track activities prior to the green flag. The uncertain circumstances could provide a handicapping challenge for an already complicated series that has witnessed 4 winners through the first 4 races of the season. However, Tuesday’s Toyota 200 will provide some value opportunity because Kyle Busch will be behind the wheel of the #54 Thank You Heroes Toyota as the heavy betting favorite. We look to capitalize on the opportunity with some strategic plays with our 2020 Toyota 200 race picks!

If you witnessed Sunday’s Cup Series event, then perhaps you recognized that teams limited the amount of personnel at the track and event attempted their best efforts towards social distancing while completing their tasks and jobs. Though racing has returned, the precautionary safety effects appear to be the new short-term norm due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of those safety precautions, NASCAR has withheld all on-track activities this week at Darlington outside of the actual race events to be in full control of the personnel allowed at the track throughout the week. These efforts will likely continue into Charlotte next week meaning we need to take full advantage of the information at hand to handicap these races and pay close attention to performance trends that could carry over to other events.

One of the guys that will not be practicing distancing from the track will be Kyle Busch. Busch is expected to suit up for Tuesday’s Toyota 200 and run all events at Charlotte in the Trucks and Xfinity Series next week as well. As Busch steps down to the Xfinity Series this Tuesday, he will be seeking his 97th victory as he continues that incredible march towards 100 victories. Remarkably, Busch has captured 25 wins in his last 53 starts in the Xfinity Series. However, Busch has not suited up for an Xfinity Series race at Darlington since the 2015 season and his last victory came in 2013. From a pure statistical standpoint, Darlington has not been one of Busch’s best tracks despite two victories in 11 starts. Obviously the competition factor will not be overly potent on Tuesday with no other fellow Cup Series drivers participating and a rather young group of Xfinity Series regulars which is the main reason Busch remains a heavy betting favorite.

The good news for bettors is that odds are really generous for all other drivers participating Tuesday in the event Busch fails to capture the checkered flag. From a betting standpoint, we can build an advantageous strategy simply based around value. Before we talk about the best drivers to bet outside of Busch, I should make it clear we should still likely have the #54 in our betting lineups. If parlay options are allowed, Busch is a must-bet with the ability to carry a parlay option into Wednesday’s Toyota 500k in the Cup Series. Having the 1st leg in a parlay secured is always an advantage and Busch’s winning ratio deserves a spot in our lineups. I know some people hate betting parlays but they are insanely beneficial when dealing with heavy favorites which was the case on Sunday when we cashed a +1450 parlay with Harvick winning The Real Heroes 400 to save our day. We should expect low odds for some of the favorites in the Cup Series this Wednesday, fresh off of Sunday’s 400 mile observational run, meaning parlay options may be extremely useful yet again.

Betting Strategy

From a betting strategy standpoint, we can feel confident locking Busch into a parlay as long as we are sharp on our other options. Locking away 1-1.25 units on Busch’s parlay, still gives us a few units to work with from a risk standpoint. The reason this is possible is because the odds are downright salivating for some of the potential challengers this Tuesday. Outside of Chase Briscoe (currently +660), we have extremely generous odds with Harrison Burton listed at near 10-1, Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones at better than 13-1, and the likes of Ross Chastain, Noah Gragson, and Austin Cindric getting better than 17-1 odds. At those numbers, that gives us plenty of options. We could put full units down on 2-3 drivers to attack the value presented or we could break it down to smaller play sizes (less reward/conservative) to cover more drivers.

Because we are getting value from some of the legitimate threats to win Tuesday, we have to be semi-aggressive, from a betting standpoint, despite the uncertainty surrounding the lack of on-track preparations. I think the correct strategy for this race will be to stay conservative or completely limit H2H plays. Despite hitting a parlay winner on Sunday in the Cup Series, I was really disappointed in the H2H bets which failed to produce. I thought most of those bets were sharp but honestly I should have been more conservative knowing how uncertain the circumstances were going into that event. I learned my lesson and will remain relatively conservative from a H2H perspective for Tuesday’s Xfinity Series race. Therefore we can take a good swing towards the future (race winners) bets and maintain some conservative nature in the angle of H2H match-ups to ensure we are approaching this event with the most rational strategy from an odds/circumstantial standpoint.

Toyota 200 Contenders

Before the year began, I made several comments that this could be one of the most difficult handicapping seasons in recent memory in the Xfinity Series. The reason for those initial thoughts were because we simply do not have established competition thresholds. For example, last year we had the Big 3 (Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick), we had the intermediate guys like Austin Cindric, Justin Allgaier, Ross Chastain, and Noah Gragson, followed by the steep dark horses. This year we don’t have a clear established threshold of favorites, intermediates, and long shots among the Xfinity Series regulars. Through 4 races, we have already seen relatively surprising wins from the likes of Harrison Burton and Brandon Jones. Without any clear frontrunner, the fight for the “top dog” or “favorite” status in the Xfinity Series is likely to unfold in the weeks ahead.

I think everybody would give the nod towards Chase Briscoe being the most likely weekly favorite. Briscoe scored the victory at Las Vegas in the 2nd week of the season and has consistently been one of the best cars through the first 4 events. Outside of Briscoe, Harrison Burton has been extremely strong through the early part of 2020 which has caught some by surprise. I thought Burton would have success though I did not expect it to come so early. Burton’s win at Fontana followed by a runner-up finish at Phoenix has set a strong performance trend going into Darlington which begs attention. Still, the likes of Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric, Noah Gragson, Daniel Hemric, Ross Chastain, and Brandon Jones all deserve different levels of respect as potential breakthrough drivers at Darlington. Heck even Riley Herbst nearly pulled out a win at Fontana which is the only track the Xfinity Series has raced on this year that produces significant tire wear like Darlington.

The question becomes who are the best bets sans practice observations ahead of this event? From a historical perspective, Kyle Busch is the only former winner at Darlington. Justin Allgaier has a ton of experience at Darlington but has somewhat mediocre results to show. While Darlington is a driver’s track, we saw young drivers shine in Sunday’s Cup Series event so experience is not mandatory to find success at Darlington. Ultimately, I think we must look at this race with who has the most likelihood to contend Tuesday based on prior performance trends. After all, that is basically what we saw in Sunday’s event with Kevin Harvick driving the #4 to victory after a strong start through the opening 4 races. Therefore, I think similar expectations should be warranted for Tuesday.

With that philosophy in mind, I really believe the best bets for Tuesday involve the likes of Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton, and Austin Cindric. I would not be surprised if Noah Gragson climbs into that mix at some point in the race. Austin Cindric’s name may be a surprise but I would not overlook the #22 car this week among the Xfinity Series regulars. In the two races at traditional ovals this year, Cindric posted finishes of 2nd at Las Vegas and 3rd at Fontana. When you talk about pure raw speed, the #22 team has produced some of the fastest cars during the season and raw speed will be important in this race without finely tuned setups.

If you do want to venture into the world of H2H match-ups and fantasy racing for this race, I will share a few thoughts. Guys like Myatt Snider, Brett Moffitt, Joe Graf Jr, and Anthony Alfredo are all fade worthy consideration as drivers that will be making their first laps at Darlington in green flag conditions. Snider and Graf are strong fades that are on my radar as both drivers recently moved to inferior equipment so keep that in mind if we are lucky enough to see those drivers paired in H2H match-ups. Meanwhile Justin Haley, Jeremy Clements, and Riley Herbst are guys that could easily exceed expectations on Tuesday. I like Haley’s talent and the raw speed from the Herbst’s #18 team which should keep both cars towards the front for H2H purposes. Meanwhile, Jeremy Clements and Daniel Hemric are solid fantasy options that should take advantage of poor starting spots to move forward once the green flag waves.

2020 Toyota 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Toyota 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +650 (1.5 units)
Austin Cindric +1600 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +3000 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +10000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Busch -145 wins Toyota 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

Michael Annett +175 over Daniel Hemric
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Bets

Justin Haley +110 over Ryan Sieg (2 units)