2020 The Real Heroes 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday May 17th, 3:44PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After a two month-long hiatus at the hands of COVID-19, NASCAR’s Cup Series will make its return on Sunday with the running of The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway. From a personal standpoint, I know these last few weeks have been tough for many people either from a health or economical impact. Hopefully everyone’s struggles will be short-lived and I think the return of racing will shed some hope towards restoring the faith in holding public events especially in the sporting world. Despite the return, this week’s race at Darlington will be unlike any other in recent memory. There will not be any spectators at the track, personnel throughout the garage has been extremely limited, and there has not been any on-track activity to prepare for 400 miles of racing on Sunday. Despite the challenges, we feel confident that we have enough information to provide some winning expectations over the next several days of racing. Sit back and get ready for the return of NASCAR as we present our 2020 The Real Heroes 400 race picks!

Despite the long layoff, Sunday’s return to racing may not be too unpredictable. Typically in NASCAR, time away from the track is not beneficial for bettors. It gives teams the options to experiment with new equipment, setups, and any other types of changes stemming from work back at the racing shops. During this layoff that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic, race teams have not been able to work at the shops due to local state stay-at-home orders for the majority of this two-month hiatus. As a result, I don’t expect to see any huge differences once we see the green flag. From the first 4 races of the year, we have at minimum, a baseline of performance expectations.

Through those opening races, Team Penske cars were usually among the class of the field, followed by JGR cars, and then everyone else. Perhaps Kevin Harvick deserves an honorable mention for being somewhere towards the top echelon of competition as well. There were several drivers that had breakout moments such as Alex Bowman’s dominating win at Fontana. In fact, all of the Chevrolet teams have seen an uptick of performance providing some parity to NASCAR’s top series. With those things in mind, we still have only seen a handful of teams unload fast cars week in and week out throughout the first 4 races. Those cars were primarily Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin.

In the wake of no pre-race activities in the lead up to Sunday’s green flag, it may be important and yet hopeful to point out that Darlington is a driver’s racetrack. This means that driver input is just as important (if not more) than a good setup. Darlington has several nicknames such as “The Lady in Black”, “Too Tough To Tame”, and other monikers that describe the difficulty of getting around this peculiar 1.366 mile speedway. As a result, some drivers simply have learned how to run Darlington Speedway and others have not. Prior track performance is perhaps more important at Darlington than anywhere the Cup Series visits and sometimes practice speeds deviate us from that handicapping strategy. So perhaps fortunately, we will stick with the Darlington trends this week as we move forward with our handicapping strategy for Sunday’s event.

Darlington Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led
Brad Keselowski	117.3	4.8	5.4	6.4	5.6	-23	125	289
Kyle Larson	117.2	8.2	6.6	6.4	5.0	57	207	500
Kevin Harvick	115.8	7.6	4.0	4.8	5.2	66	117	280
Martin Truex Jr	111.8	8.4	12.2	8.8	7.6	-2	134	134
Erik Jones	110.8	10.7	11.0	4.7	7.3	12	66	79
Kyle Busch	105.7	11.4	7.2	6.0	7.4	6	75	128
Denny Hamlin	105.0	6.4	4.8	9.4	7.2	1	96	205
Joey Logano	102.9	6.4	11.8	8.6	8.6	-15	61	47
Kurt Busch	102.4	5.2	7.2	11.2	7.6	44	145	108
Matt Kenseth	85.5	12.5	19.3	14.5	16.5	-31	26	10
Chase Elliott	83.4	14.4	11.2	17.2	13.8	25	61	9
Jimmie Johnson	79.6	14.4	15.0	23.8	17.6	29	36	3
Ryan Newman	78.2	16.8	15.2	14.0	15.2	64	10	9
Austin Dillon	77.3	17.2	15.4	12.8	15.8	-16	13	0
William Byron	76.3	5.5	8.0	28.0	11.5	-8	13	0
Chris Buescher	73.0	22.3	13.5	14.8	16.3	24	6	0
Ryan Blaney	68.6	14.4	24.8	20.4	21.6	-69	29	0
Aric Almirola	67.8	18.8	18.0	18.8	19.0	-4	7	0
Alex Bowman	65.4	18.3	24.0	21.7	22.3	-49	54	0
Clint Bowyer	63.5	20.2	21.2	24.2	22.0	13	43	1
Ty Dillon	63.3	27.3	23.3	18.0	21.0	-2	3	0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	61.1	25.0	23.2	26.0	23.8	-4	14	0
Matt DiBenedetto	52.4	27.4	26.2	24.8	25.6	-42	6	0
Michael McDowell	51.6	27.3	24.0	26.0	26.0	-7	2	0
Bubba Wallace	51.4	27.5	27.5	25.0	27.0	0	16	0
Corey LaJoie	42.3	32.0	33.0	30.3	31.3	-7	4	0

As you can see from the loop data that I compiled over the last 5 races, we have a number of drivers with +100 average ratings during that time period. Kyle Larson surprisingly ranks 2nd but will not get a chance to run for a trophy. In case you missed it, Larson was let go from Chip Ganassi Racing after making a racial slur during an publicized Iracing event. Formerly retired veteran Matt Kenseth will get an opportunity to pilot the #42 this week. Kenseth is a former 2013 winner at Darlington but you have to expect some seat rust in his first week back. Looking back towards the loop data, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, and Erik Jones have exceptional average ratings of +110 or greater. Typically when a driver posts a +100 rating over a 5 race average, they deserve contender status.

In this rare statistical dilemma, we have several drivers that have both +100 or greater ratings. I would point out that Erik Jones’ surprising rating comes largely from last year’s Southern 500 win when he dominated the 2nd half of the event. During those weeks in 2019, JGR drivers were dominating on a near weekly basis. To this point in the season, the JGR teams have not been nearly as dominant which downgrades their expectations to a small degree. Perhaps the biggest threat out of the JGR shop that should never be overlooked is Denny Hamlin. Despite ranking 7th in our loop data, Hamlin has been great at Darlington with 2 victories, two runner-up finishes, and 6 top 10 finishes in the last 10 races in South Carolina. Hamlin always runs well at Darlington and should be considered a top threat every time.

While loop data stats do not guarantee repeated performance, it does provide a solid baseline especially at a track like Darlington. Looking down the rankings, I want to make a few notable mentions that could be used in H2H style match-ups. Kurt Busch is an underrated Darlington talent finishing inside the top 7 positions in 4 of the last 5 starts. William Byron has not produced great finishes in his 1st two Darlington starts (35th and 21st). However, Byron has performed well in both races averaging an 8th place position through the mid-point of both races. With the improvement from the Chevrolet camp, Byron could be a sleeper performer if he can stay out of harm’s way. On the other side of the spectrum, guys like Clint Bowyer, Ryan Blaney, and Aric Almirola have struggled severely at Darlington based on their typical stats. Blaney and Almirola have never finished inside the top 10 in 13 combined starts. Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer owns a career 21.57 average at Darlington Raceway over 14 starts. I personally think Blaney is a sharp fade going into Sunday based on his strong opening to the 2020 season. Meanwhile, Bowyer is one of my favorite fades for every Darlington visit.

The Real Heroes 400 Betting Strategy

Though this Sunday’s return to racing is extremely exciting, we would be foolish to unload the clip this week from a betting standpoint. These uncertain circumstances require a conservative betting strategy which means less high risk bets (group bets, prop bets, etc). We will keep things straightforward this week with our best win bets and a few sharp H2H plays while ensuring our overall risk remains relatively low compared to normal weeks. Outside of the pure betting realm, we have also provided our optimal Draftkings lineup for The Real Heroes 400 as well. Though the circumstances are not ideal, the random draw format that was used to set the starting lineup yields some fantasy appeal. Brad Keselowski who owns the highest mark in our loop data has the luxury of starting from the pole without any huge challengers in his mirror which means he should be able to lead until the competition caution (lap 30). Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, William Byron, Erik Jones, and Kurt Busch all have advantageous fantasy appeal due to their lackluster starting positions. Therefore, it feels like we have enough options to construct a quality fantasy lineup despite the uncertainties. As always, we will need a little luck on our side.

2020 The Real Heroes 400 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 The Real Heroes 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1000 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1000 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +1500 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +2000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +675 wins The Real Heroes 400
Cole Custer +100 over Christopher Bell
Risking 1 unit to win: +1450

H2H and Prop Bets

Brad Keselowski +100 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Matt DiBenedetto -130 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Kurt Busch -150 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
William Byron -140 over Chris Buescher (2 units)