NASCAR Phoenix Betting Recap
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Yesterday’s race at Phoenix concluded a rather frustrating weekend in the realm of betting. After missing out on Justin Allgaier at 13-1 with the best car in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, our Cup Series luck may have been worse on Sunday. During different stages of the race, our picks in Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, and Brad Keselowski all had moments where it appeared they were destined for victory and 2 of the 3 H2H bets looked promising throughout most of the afternoon as well. Instead, things did not fall our way and we completely struck out on all bets. Perhaps we should have spent the weekend watching the race on top of Rattlesnake Hill at Phoenix because it feels as if we were snake bitten with bad luck throughout all races. Unfortunately that is the nature of the beast in NASCAR betting and we will keep grinding moving forward. Let’s take a quick look back at a few key betting notes following Phoenix and discuss why we should be optimistic moving forward!
Joey Logano 4th consecutive winning favorite
If you have noticed, I have used the word “conservative” a lot during these first few races and for good reason. Betting odds, at least in the Cup Series, have not been appetizing with far too many favorites with saturated value. In fact, Joey Logano’s win on Sunday marked the 4th consecutive win to start the season by a top 5 favorite. Hamlin was the overall favorite at Daytona closing at +875, Logano closed at +825 at Vegas, Bowman closed at +800 at Auto Club Speedway, and Logano closed most recently on Sunday at +650. Needless to say, the winners have not produced any real value this season. I can’t remember the last time we have started the season with 4 winners under 9-1 odds especially when you consider the wild factor of Daytona and Alex Bowman’s 2nd career win. Perhaps we should give props to odds makers for being sharp thus far. However, this current stretch of favorites winning at low odds each week will eventually subside and we will have opportunities with higher profit potential.
Betting Optimism
Despite winning just 1 of the 4 Cup Series races to start the season, I have to be rather thankful to be down just around 2 units overall for the year. Obviously I would prefer a stronger start but the first several weeks of the season are typically the toughest. If you look at last year’s picks, I was down 41 units ($4,100 for $100 bettors) following the Xfinity Series race at Texas at the end of March. Afterwards, I went on an unprecedented run to close out the year posting a record of +140 units to the good. I am optimistic that will be the narrative again this season as we continue to grind each week. I’m not saying we are going to post another +140 units and I’m not saying we will not. I am a little superstitious when it comes to expecting or projecting profits . However, I am confident things will pick up as we move forward. I have had a few people reach out in recent weeks that are new to NASCAR betting which is why I am making the majority of these comments. Experienced NASCAR bettors understand the waves are fast and furious. Winning and losing streaks are inevitable and typical to this style of wagering. Don’t get discouraged after a few bad weeks. Minimizing losses during losing streaks and maximizing profits during the winning streaks is how you produce long term value.
Team Penske
For the 2nd straight year, Team Penske is off to a red hot start following Joey Logano’s 2nd victory through the first 4 races. If you read my power rankings last week, I labeled Ryan Blaney the early season MVP after showing winning speed through the first 3 races. Blaney was the innocent victim of a wreck on Sunday which resulted in a 37th place finish and knocked the #12 off the top of the points standing. Before the incident, Blaney appeared to have another top 5 car as his performance continues to trend upwards. Perhaps lost in all the strategy madness at the end of Sunday’s Fan Shield 500 is the fact that 3 Team Penske cars were capable of winning. Blaney was in the picture before the wreck, Brad Keselowski led 82 laps and appeared to have the fastest car before pit strategy came into play, and obviously Logano closed the deal. The performance of the Team Penske Fords was very impressive and they are easily the top performing team in the garage right now.
Next week, the Cup Series moves to Atlanta Motor Speedway and a track where Keselowski has won 2 of the last 3 races so there is a good opportunity this trend continues. Also if you remember back to the start of 2019, the Penske cars were similarly hot out of the gates. I have no idea to speculate if there is a reason for this trend but I do believe we should elevate these cars on a weekly basis until proven wrong. In my Fan Shield 500 race picks, I pointed out Joey Logano had great speed in practices but his prior track history scared me. So it was not like Logano flew under the radar this week because all of the Team Penske cars have shown speed. Therefore we should keep this trend in mind moving forward because Keslowski/Blaney are going to add their name to the win column soon and we should be ready to capitalize!
