NASCAR Betting Power Rankings
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first 3 races of the season are officially in the books following last weekend’s Auto Club 400 that featured a dominating win by Alex Bowman who scored just the 2nd victory of his Cup Series career. The start of the 2020 campaign has not disappointed. The racing has been strong and the playing field has been extremely competitive. Instead of just a few select teams running at the front each week, we have seen tremendous parity which is exciting for all remaining races on the schedule. With 3 races under our belt, a few keen observations should be kept in mind as we move forward and perhaps most importantly we have compiled enough observable performance data to determine the drivers that may be worth targeting consistently in the weeks ahead. Below I have compiled a list of the top 5 drivers that are exceeding expectations and likely have the highest betting potential moving forward whether it is in the realm of futures (win) or H2H match-up style bets. The drivers listed below deserve imminent betting attention as we move forward in the 2020 season.
#5 – Chris Buescher
Going into the season, I thought Chris Buescher would likely make some noise in his new ride at Roush-Fenway Racing. Stepping into the #17 car previously driven by Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Buescher definitely received an upgrade in terms of resources and equipment. So far, Buescher’s performance has improved with finishes of 3rd, 14th, and 16th in the opening 3 races. It has not been a huge uptick in performance but a noticeable one. The value for Buescher is that he is still being paired against drivers that he should beat on a regular basis (E.g Bubba Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse, Michael McDowell). If you followed my picks last week, I took Buescher over Stenhouse and I seriously can’t remember a point in the race where Stenhouse was ahead of the #17 barring pit strategy. I think there will be similar opportunities in the weeks ahead because Buescher is a top 15 driver and his competition (at least in H2H match-ups) are usually drivers that are not top 15 caliber on a weekly basis.
#4 – John Hunter Nemechek
One of my favorite H2H options following the Auto Club 400 surrounds the young rookie John Hunter Nemechek. Nemechek is not an appetizing option at face value driving the #38 for Front Row Motorsports. In fact, he is paired against the worst drivers in the sport on a weekly basis. However, this list solely entails betting potential and that is an area where John Hunter holds significant value in exceeding expectations each week. Nemechek has posted finishes of 11th, 24th, and 25th through the first 3 races with the 11th place result coming in the Daytona 500. However, the top 25 finishes at Las Vegas and Fontana are equally impressive considering the #38 team’s disadvantage in terms of resources. In fact, John Hunter has covered nearly every H2H pairing through the opening 3 weeks because he is typically paired against bottom-dwelling drivers. If that trend continues which is expected, we can start to profit on John Hunter’s talent because he continues to get the very best of his equipment on a weekly basis.
#3 – Jimmie Johnson
On the heels of a vast turnaround by Hendrick Motorsports, Jimmie Johnson has made it clear that he will not go quietly into the night during his farewell tour in 2020. After a strong 5th place finish at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson was stout at Auto Club Speedway racing inside the top 5 for the majority of the afternoon. At the end of the day, Johnson turned in a 7th place finish but he was arguably among the top 3-4 cars all afternoon. Thus far, it has been truly a remarkable turnaround for a team that posted just 3 top 5 finishes in 2019 and it is also obvious that the entire Hendrick Motorsports organization has found speed. If nothing changes, Johnson is going to eventually score a win (or more) and his weekly H2H value remains sufficient to warrant consideration against 2nd-tier drivers. If the #48 team maintains their speed, the month of May will be very interesting with trips to Dover, Martinsville, and Charlotte all back to back. The 7-time champion has 28 combined wins at those 3 venues and will have a great opportunity to end his career-long 98 race winless streak.
#2 – Alex Bowman
I know it is easy to throw last week’s winner into this list after a dominating victory in the Auto Club 400. However, Bowman was trending towards this list following his performance at Las Vegas. I have raved about Bowman’s improvement over the last year on several occasions and I think we are going to see more of his potential now that the Chevrolet teams have found speed. Bowman is one of the rare drivers that should shatter most of his career averages (per track) going forward. I’m not sure if that means we will always get the best value on Bowman each week depending on odds but it does mean that he will be a hard driver to predict from week to week. The high variance in expectations from week to week will provide spot situational value and we will be ready when the opportunity presents itself.
#1 – Ryan Blaney
If I could give a driver a superlative of the “Early Season MVP,” it would go to Ryan Blaney. Blaney leads the points but his performance extends far beyond the mathematical standings. Blaney has posted legitimate winning speed in every event this season and I don’t know of any other driver that can make that claim. Through 3 races, Blaney has averaged a lucrative 105.4 driver rating across 3 venues with arguably the car to beat at both Las Vegas and Fontana. Mark my words, Blaney is going to win soon. He has always been strong at the 1.5 mile speedways and trips to Atlanta, Homestead, and Texas are on the horizon following Phoenix. Additionally, Blaney has sleeper performance value at places like Phoenix and Bristol which collectively makes up the next 5 races. Based on performance alone, Blaney should be among the weekly favorites and the value he receives as a mid-tier option at openings each week begs for betting attention. Therefore, the #12 should be at the top of everyone’s radar in the weeks moving forward.
